Terpeast Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 On 2/15/2024 at 1:36 AM, Terpeast said: Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23. With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning to descend, we will likely have less blocking than even 2022-23. With all the cold air bottled up at the pole/Siberia or again dumping to the western NA, I'm thinking AN to much AN temps across the entire CONUS except maybe near normal over the Pac NW. East coast will likely be much AN+++ with 60s being commonplace, with strings of 70 degree days interspersed throughout even the deepest winter months. Warmest winter on record across the east? Even higher chance of that happening than this year and last year. I know it’s way early, but CFS is thinking along similar lines for January. Cansips DJF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 On 4/17/2024 at 8:21 PM, Terpeast said: I know it’s way early, but CFS is thinking along similar lines for January. Cansips DJF Really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 3 hours ago, thunderbolt said: Really It’s deceptive because this CANSIPS DJF (based on 1981-2010 base) is actually sig colder than last winter from Midwest to MidATL to NE with all areas forecasted within +1 to +4F vs last winter’s +4 to +12F! Ex: Chi was +8 and is forecasted to be only +3 NYC/DC were +5 and fcast is for only +2 Of course it remains to be seen whether these forecasts are once again going to end up too cold. Still, a place like Chi has an excellent chance to not be nearly as warm as last winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 If we're using the RONI, then 2010 is the best fit year. Both el nino peaks were about the same, and at the same time. It looks like this year is falling at a faster rate. (Next best fit year would be 1988, but that el nino peaked earlier in the season.) NDJ 2009 1.57 DJF 2010 1.45 JFM 2010 1.09 OND 2023 1.49 NDJ 2023 1.47 DJF 2024 1.21 JFM 2024 0.86 JAS 1987 1.47 ASO 1987 1.43 SON 1987 1.24 OND 1987 1.02 NDJ 1987 0.93 DJF 1988 0.65 JFM 1988 0.30 RONI peaks for the 1988-89 and 2010-11 La Ninas. OND 1988 -1.92 NDJ 1988 -1.93 SON 2010 -1.70 OND 2010 -1.70 My guess is that the RONI peaks around -1.8 in late fall (SON/OND). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 CanSIPS h5 look suggests late Dec into early Jan and again in late winter will offer chances for colder airmasses in the central/eastern US mostly via the NE Pac ridge shifting into the EPO domain. Recent Ninas have featured such favorable periods for cold/snow in the MA, within the overall unfavorable h5 pattern for DJFM- in particular 2016-17, 17-18, and 21-22. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 On 4/19/2024 at 10:51 PM, GaWx said: It’s deceptive because this CANSIPS DJF (based on 1981-2010 base) is actually sig colder than last winter from Midwest to MidATL to NE with all areas forecasted within +1 to +4F vs last winter’s +4 to +12F! Ex: Chi was +8 and is forecasted to be only +3 NYC/DC were +5 and fcast is for only +2 Of course it remains to be seen whether these forecasts are once again going to end up too cold. Still, a place like Chi has an excellent chance to not be nearly as warm as last winter. Yeah, don't think I'd put too much stock in a full on torch here yet. I was totally ready for one last winter with a strong/super EP Nino dominating. With the STJ weakened under a strong Nina, the real player will be the AO/NAO and a strong N-S gradient. It's just a question of where that gradient wants to set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 First sign of a La Nina -PNA pattern on todays 18z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 01:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:25 PM The 4/26/24 WCS PDO was -1.12, which is equivalent to a NOAA PDO of ~~-2.0: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago On 4/17/2024 at 8:21 PM, Terpeast said: I know it’s way early, but CFS is thinking along similar lines for January. Cansips DJF Cfs will literally change 100+ times before then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Cfs will literally change 100+ times before then. Yes it will. But this depiction, in my opinion, is well supported by the combination of the projected nina + neg PDO + marine heat wave off Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 10 hours ago, Terpeast said: Yes it will. But this depiction, in my opinion, is well supported by the combination of the projected nina + neg PDO + marine heat wave off Japan. Agreed. Looks very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Glad we figured next winter out early, that's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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