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2024 Short/Medium Range Severe Weather Discussion


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4 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The Michigan tornado will be rated at least EF-1. This was just sent out by the IWX WCM: 

Our damage survey of St. Joseph is complete. We can confirm at least an EF-1 tornado from north of Lewis Lake at the county line, went southeast and ended on N Maine St. in Three Rivers. We will internally discuss amongst us at the office on rating and estimated wind speed, but it was at least on the upper end of an EF-1. Thank you for your patience and assistance. Somebody back at the office will release a PNS shortly containing much of the same info. 

It might be this evening before official path width/length and wind speed are released.

Final call, EF-2:

Saint Joseph County Michigan...

Rating:                 EF2
Estimated Peak Wind:    115 mph
Path Length /statute/:  8.46 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   700 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             08/06/2024
Start Time:             08:19 AM EDT
Start Location:         2 W Howardsville / St. Joseph County / MI
Start Lat/Lon:          42.0333 / -85.7616

End Date:               08/06/2024
End Time:               08:33 AM EDT
End Location:           1 NNW Three Rivers / St. Joseph County / MI
End Lat/Lon:            41.9616 / -85.6348

Survey Summary:

A tornado touched down Tuesday morning at the county line border,
just north of Lewis Lake. The tornado did significant tree damage
and snapped power poles along the entirety of Berry Ln. The
tornado moved southeast towards Day Rd where it reached maximum
width of approximately 700 yards. Here, a well anchored
manufactured home was slid approximately 5 feet off its
foundation, along with significant tree damage. Near the
intersection of Bent Rd. and Floating Bridge Rd. the tornado
completely destroyed a barn. Farther east on Floating Bridge Rd.,
the tornado removed a two-story barn roof completely off and
moved it about 30 feet away. The tornado reached maximum
intensity of EF-2 along Floating Bridge Rd. Another barn roof
received major roof damage, the residence's roof was partially
removed, and significant tree damage was also observed. The
tornado continued southeast crossing Mount Zion Rd with major
tree damage and center pivots being overturned.  Near Pulver and
Null Rd., 8 power poles were snapped, an irrigation pivot was
twisted, and minor/moderate roof damage was observed to three
homes. Farther southeast along Cowling Rd, a well constructed
shed was moved 20-30ft away from its foundation and part of the
structure was thrown into the Rocky River. Finally, the tornado
caused minor roof damage to a warehouse along N. Main St in Three
Rivers. While a portion of the roof was thrown into the trees
across the street, it is believed this is where the tornado
terminated.

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NWS offices have been putting the final touches on info regarding the July 15th derecho severe t'storm event in the area.

In total, 48 tornadoes occurred with the July 15th derecho across N and C Illinois. This total sets a new state record for most tornadoes in a 24 hour period, in a single day, and for an event.

In addition to the state records set, 32 tornadoes occurred across the LOT CWA in IL and IN. This total blew out the previous record of 22 tornadoes, set on June 30th, 2014, during a double derecho event.

...IL CWA Totals...
DVN: 9
LOT: 30
ILX: 10
...................
Total: 48
(Note: One tor crossed from ILX to LOT, so the overall tor count is one less.)

451127048_915400540615635_5125505763112085776_n.thumb.jpg.2767533daf3e8f371ea28ddff9d09bae.jpg

454324400_915400527282303_5986675583844426372_n.thumb.jpg.8fa3b8d4b11eb1c0353778e2cdcb8b88.jpg

454501328_915400563948966_1934241660308702218_n.thumb.jpg.456e2782a0e9151a83e299abdc2b18fd.jpg

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The high resolution, short term modeling did a good job with depicting that stationary band of thunderstorms over north central Ohio associated with the cold front and interaction with PTC Debby’s cyclonic flow. Radar estimates up to 5-6” in spots.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I had a tornado warning issued at 11am this morning by EC from a suspicious cell with a bean shape over Clifford. This is the earliest tornado warning I've recalled for mby. Tornado warnings before noon in Ontario are very rare in general. At one point there were 3 tor warnings at once in SON. Mine was dropped within 8 mins and replaced with a svr t-storm warning that gave me some light showers which have been on and off every 30-60 mins today. I didn't even hear thunder! :lol: The cell in question fell apart rapidly. Some peaks of sun at times with more cells from the south ongoing.

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I put this into ChatGPT 4:

"how many tornadoes occurred in Illinois during the month of July 2024?"
 

Quote

 

ChatGPT said:

As of now, I don’t have real-time data, so I can’t provide the exact number of tornadoes that occurred in Illinois during July 2024. To get the most up-to-date information on tornadoes, you can check the following sources:

National Weather Service (NWS): Their website often provides detailed reports and summaries of recent weather events, including tornadoes.
Storm Prediction Center (SPC): They offer historical weather data and tornado summaries.
Local Weather Agencies: State or regional meteorological agencies may also provide detailed records and updates.
For the latest data, visiting these sources or checking recent weather news updates would be the best approach.

 

 

Pathetic. These AI Chat LLMs suck for weather queries. The point is for me not to have to dig for these stats if its connected to the web!

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1 hour ago, Torchageddon said:

I put this into ChatGPT 4:

"how many tornadoes occurred in Illinois during the month of July 2024?"
 

 

Pathetic. These AI Chat LLMs suck for weather queries. The point is for me not to have to dig for these stats if its connected to the web!

I'm not sure it's connected to the Web exactly like that. AI chatbots are just "fed" very large segments of Internet, but data that is that recent isn't something that I would expect a chatbot to have ingested yet.  Last I saw, there's even a disclaimer that GPT's accuracy drops with recency and that stuff from the last year very likely will not be answered properly or at all. That said, idk if it's much better with old old weather data either simply due to obscurity.

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some 48kt winds by Minneapolis

Quote

KMSP 270041Z 31012G48KT 3/4SM R30L/2800VP6000FT +TSRA BR BKN014 BKN040 OVC060CB 22/20 A3000 RMK AO2 PK WND 32048/0031 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB22E25B26 TSB15 CONS LTGICCCCG 

 

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My go-to CAMs (HRRR and 3K NAM, 12Z runs) both completely whiffed on the severe line which fired up in eastern WI late this morning and is now (in a considerably weakened state, even though there is a severe thunderstorm watch in effect out ahead of it) pushing into lower MI. Therefore, their depiction of activity (or lack thereof) for the rest of this afternoon/evening is rather suspect.

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11 minutes ago, Chinook said:

windy outflow boundary seen coming into Detroit area with severe wind gusts possible

outflow boundary at dtx.jpg

Heh was outside for that. Quite fun. Had a couple 50 bursts but nothing crazy. Outflow seems stronger to my NE though.

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13 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I see the Detroit area got rocked (DTW recorded a 76 MPH gust).

I talked to my mom and she said there are down branches everywhere.

350,000 without power across the state, pretty big number for a 2/15/15 slight risk day

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