Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,540
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

February 2024 General Discussion


Spartman
 Share

Recommended Posts

A heavy band of snow has sunk in from the northeast off the lake and is adding up quickly.  Snow depth here is 16 inches, and the main snowbelts are just starting to get some nice, packed depths (puny compared to average, but...).  What a shame about the upcoming pattern.  I'll enjoy it while it's here but hard not to root for spring at this point even tho there's lots of snow climo left in the UP.

598226957_snowdepth(2).thumb.png.fca56d74f9206f8bb87015414ec61846.png

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Birds flying around, dry leaves blowing around in mid Feb. Love it! Glad to have experienced such a mild winter that's so similar to 1877/78. 

Looking ahead, I see GFS wants to spin up a storm around leap day. My modelling suggests LP in the region around that time. There is potential. A little winter would be nice to see as well. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We are over-performing by several degrees today, now at 56º.  It's going to be a very mild week.

Seems to happen every spring.  This time of year we're desert-like with no vegetation and in this case dry top soil.  Even the most aggressive models for warmth tend to low-ball.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

What ever happened to Jackstraw?  Noticed the last of the snowpack was around his area today in Indiana and it reminded me that he hasn't been around in a long time.

Last time he posted, April 5, 2023. Last time visited, June 22, 2023.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What an absolutely historic winter this has been... been diving into some of the numbers. Really looking forward to the end of February to go through the final figures. 100 years ago, this would have been front page news in the New York Times - probably multiple times over the course of the winter. But nobody cares anymore, certainly not our derelict media. I guess back then a lot more people were working outdoors and would take notice of the anomalies. Many more day-to-day impacts from the weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What an absolutely historic winter this has been... been diving into some of the numbers. Really looking forward to the end of February to go through the final figures. 100 years ago, this would have been front page news in the New York Times - probably multiple times over the course of the winter. But nobody cares anymore, certainly not our derelict media. I guess back then a lot more people were working outdoors and would take notice of the anomalies. Many more day-to-day impacts from the weather.

Climate Change is not in the news daily.  Billions upon Billions of dollars are not being spent it.  Weather events are never in the news.  :facepalm:

You are such a drama queen!!!

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Lightning said:

Climate Change is not in the news daily.  Billions upon Billions of dollars are not being spent it.  Weather events are never in the news.  :facepalm:

You are such a drama queen!!!

 

Wow! Dude, I read Tony Heller all the time. They used to run huge, multipage spreads about climate and weather events that today would be tame. Like the multi-page spread in the New York Herald from 1921, about the global heat wave and drought that year. Well, guess what, compared to today, that was a cold year globally. Most of the heat was in the U.S. and Europe, so it got more press.

But even in the U.S., pretty much every single year over the past several has been similarly warm or warmer than 2021. Do you see the New York Times running multi-page spreads about the weather every single year? No doubt if a global heat wave the magnitude of 2023 had hit 100 years ago, the ENTIRE news would be dedicated to it. That would literally be the biggest story of all time in that era.

image.png.b0382024ab1a886fbadd9adfa2941410.png

image.png.eef346c87a693fde7fc5d57877368c76.png

Ignore 1873 - missing January and February data. Although it is hilarious that you can wipe out the COLDEST 1/6th of the year and still be 0.5F cooler than 2 of the past 4 years. That's the same as saying January & February could have averaged a ridiculous 53.5F that year, and it would still have been 0.5F cooler than 2021 & 2023 at Toledo.

image.png.eed02cd2b83d9d545317c788b1260929.png

image.png.73963ab4db3b69a2f0253675aabcaed5.png

Ignore annual means for 1863 & 1873 - both are missing January through March. But, once again, hilarious that you can wipe out the #1, #2, and #4 coldest months, and still produce a yearly mean similar to many recent years from the average of the remaining months.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Spring is in the air.  High of 45 yesterday and 46 forecast for today, 20 degrees above the average high.  I was down in Big Bay yesterday at the lake and the shore was remarkably free of ice. Have never witnessed that before in February.

My new batch of Chickies from late autumn are just over 3 months old and starting to mature.  They'll join the main coop in another month and see the outside world for the first time.

402489704_thumbnail(1).thumb.jpg.cd0fd5a407d1091ab0d18a90857277fb.jpg

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow! Dude, I read Tony Heller all the time. They used to run huge, multipage spreads about climate and weather events that today would be tame. Like the multi-page spread in the New York Herald from 1921, about the global heat wave and drought that year. Well, guess what, compared to today, that was a cold year globally. Most of the heat was in the U.S. and Europe, so it got more press.

But even in the U.S., pretty much every single year over the past several has been similarly warm or warmer than 2021. Do you see the New York Times running multi-page spreads about the weather every single year? No doubt if a global heat wave the magnitude of 2023 had hit 100 years ago, the ENTIRE news would be dedicated to it. That would literally be the biggest story of all time in that era.

image.png.b0382024ab1a886fbadd9adfa2941410.png

image.png.eef346c87a693fde7fc5d57877368c76.png

Ignore 1873 - missing January and February data. Although it is hilarious that you can wipe out the COLDEST 1/6th of the year and still be 0.5F cooler than 2 of the past 4 years. That's the same as saying January & February could have averaged a ridiculous 53.5F that year, and it would still have been 0.5F cooler than 2021 & 2023 at Toledo.

image.png.eed02cd2b83d9d545317c788b1260929.png

image.png.73963ab4db3b69a2f0253675aabcaed5.png

Ignore annual means for 1863 & 1873 - both are missing January through March. But, once again, hilarious that you can wipe out the #1, #2, and #4 coldest months, and still produce a yearly mean similar to many recent years from the average of the remaining months.

Tony Heller is a proven fraud.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Tony Heller is a proven fraud.

I mean I'm obviously not endorsing him. In fact, the opposite. He presents past news stories as evidence of past climate change to downplay the changes happening today - which is obvious nonsense. I'm instead using those same stories to show how the news media treated periods of weather in the past that would be mild by today's standards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Spring is in the air.  High of 45 yesterday and 46 forecast for today, 20 degrees above the average high.  I was down in Big Bay yesterday at the lake and the shore was remarkably free of ice. Have never witnessed that before in February.

My new batch of Chickies from late autumn are just over 3 months old and starting to mature.  They'll join the main coop in another month and see the outside world for the first time.

402489704_thumbnail(1).thumb.jpg.cd0fd5a407d1091ab0d18a90857277fb.jpg

:wub:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Lightning said:

Climate Change is not in the news daily.  Billions upon Billions of dollars are not being spent it.  Weather events are never in the news.  :facepalm:

You are such a drama queen!!!

 

Whats even funnier...is you can read newspaper articles from other historically warm winters (1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1982-83, etc) and they discuss the abnormal warmth, lack of snow, and "open" winter as they called them....and manage to actually discuss the oddities of the weather WITHOUT throwing CC into every (or any) sentence. Also, they do not plaster it as a front page spread contrary to what youve heard. I know as I have a subscription to view any daily newspaper since 1837. Oh, and btw, Detroits 3 warmest winters are 1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90. Stay tuned for TCC's expert analysis of why those records are wrong and shouldnt count :lol:

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

All The Climate Changer is doing is shining a light on what a catastrophe this winter has been, and speaking up when everyone else is silent.  He's taking the data angle, and I'm taking the emotional angle (I've been doing the latter for years, but 2023-24 is the last straw).  Either way, it's horrible...and deserves to be hyped and communicated as much as possible.

He's right that the media is basically silent on what is going on this winter.  Shockingly, it's even worse than that, because Joe Public is actually happy to have warm and snowless winters.  If people are thinking this, then journalists aren't doing their job because the facts aren't getting communicated accordingly.

Let's just do what the US does on every environmental issue - just remain silent and complicit.  There's a political/justice-related saying from Plato:  "silence is consent".  And just like bullies do in school, people who have the courage to document and speak out against atrocities are often punished and told to keep quiet. I'm not comparing this winter to various forms of social injustice - just trying to make an analogy for purposes of understanding.

This winter has set a new bar for how bad things can be.  My go-to place in northern WI (Minocqua) has only had 15" of snow this winter, and 124 (!!) SDDs.  They average 100" of snowfall and approximately 1,600 SDDs.  And their DJF temp will probably shatter their old record by 3-5F, with records going back to the early 1900s.  This is an abomination, and doesn't deserve to be minimized.  From both an emotional and data-related standpoint, how can people be ok with this?  Why isn't everyone furious and worried? The shocking thing about Winter 2023-24 is how bad it has been across nearly all of the Lower 48.  Usually, at least some places have winter while others miss out - but this season, it's across the board.

That's what he and I are trying to say - trying to get people to care, and to stop minimizing things.  It's not right for winters to be warm like this.  People can debate the degree of CC vs. natural variability...but, either way, it's just not right.  So, we should say it.  And don't even get me started on UHI - a whole other issue which is extremely concerning.  If you step back and realize how much humans can impact temps in a city environment, it seems so unnatural...yet everyone just accepts it and moves on.  The normal January low at ORD has increased by 4-5F over 40 years - how can that be ok??  We as a society should be doing everything possible to stop this - but no one cares at all.  Gee, I wonder why - everything is "individual freedom" - heaven forbid we pool together and take collective action to solve problems. Individual freedom should be A consideration, not THE consideration. And then when a group of people actually does work very hard and summon up the courage to try to change something, it gets stalled because society/government/policy wonks/corporations/etc. don't want anything to change.  

For people who love winter, it has been hard to suffer through every winter since 2014-15. That's 9 winters in a row.  You can have the other 275 days in the year - what's so wrong with letting people have 90 days of consistent winter?  Most people on this board love winter, yet they act like bullies and put everyone else down when they express their true thoughts.  Why aren't we all in this together?  What's the problem with admitting that you love the season, and that the current situation is horrible? 

It doesn't matter what ENSO and the 5,000 other cyclical indices say; there should be more than 10 "good" days, even in the worst winters.  Not expecting 90 days - but at least 50 or 60.  The good folks in Minocqua and nearly every other place in the Lower 48 are suffering because of this.  No one wants to have a drink at the local watering hole, or get together with friends at a nice restaurant, when there is no snow for skiing, tubing, stargazing, snowshoeing, and other activities.  And a true, deep winter-like White Christmas (not just 1-3" of slop at best) has become a pipe dream, even though it's the shortest days of the year and it should just happen because of the calendar and the mystique around it.  The winter atmosphere is slipping away, and everyone is just staying silent while it happens.  It's catastrophic - so please let people speak up about it without feeling shy about it, and spread the word.  There is no need to rationalize something that is so bad - we just need to admit how horrible it is, and stop being in denial.  It can't and shouldn't be rationalized.

And I'm not saying we'll never have good snowstorms or occasional cold outbreaks again.  But that doesn't really matter either way...because winter is a mindset based on duration and consistency simply due to the calendar, not the ups and downs of individual storms and needing to hope for certain patterns to produce anything resembling true winter cold. In summer, we don't worry about warm temps - they just happen. And that's great, for summer. I'm not opposed to summer and any other seasons - just let them fit into their appropriate place on the calendar.

One thing I do agree on - there should be a separate thread for climate-related info.  But there's no need to jump down people's throats simply because they express genuine concern and frustration.  There could be a kind request to start a new thread - very simple.  In many aspects of life, it's difficult to deal with situations where you feel alone, like you're the only one experiencing something.  One purpose of these forums is to bring people together who have a common interest - so let's get back to that and support each other. It would probably be easier if we knew each other in person, instead of typing keystrokes through a screen.  I just want all of us to have good intentions, and do things for the right reasons.

If you want to take the "not so serious" angle - that's fine too.  For people who love winter, it has just sucked lately - there's no other way around it.  So let us complain and vent; I wish others did the same.  Stop the bickering - nothing to hide.

  • Like 3
  • Haha 4
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was out biking in the preserve across from home before work today and noticed several species of trees are budding...especially some types of maples. Came across one tree in particular that had moved past budding and was beginning to green out.

Can't recall seeing that occur this early before, even in years with warmer February periods.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What an absolutely historic winter this has been... been diving into some of the numbers. Really looking forward to the end of February to go through the final figures. 100 years ago, this would have been front page news in the New York Times - probably multiple times over the course of the winter. But nobody cares anymore, certainly not our derelict media. I guess back then a lot more people were working outdoors and would take notice of the anomalies. Many more day-to-day impacts from the weather.

The sun is hot

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

All The Climate Changer is doing is shining a light on what a catastrophe this winter has been, and speaking up when everyone else is silent.  He's taking the data angle, and I'm taking the emotional angle (I've been doing the latter for years, but 2023-24 is the last straw).  Either way, it's horrible...and deserves to be hyped and communicated as much as possible.

He's right that the media is basically silent on what is going on this winter.  Shockingly, it's even worse than that, because Joe Public is actually happy to have warm and snowless winters.  If people are thinking this, then journalists aren't doing their job because the facts aren't getting communicated accordingly.

Let's just do what the US does on every environmental issue - just remain silent and complicit.  There's a political/justice-related saying from Plato:  "silence is consent".  And just like bullies do in school, people who have the courage to document and speak out against atrocities are often punished and told to keep quiet. I'm not comparing this winter to various forms of social injustice - just trying to make an analogy for purposes of understanding.

This winter has set a new bar for how bad things can be.  My go-to place in northern WI (Minocqua) has only had 15" of snow this winter, and 124 (!!) SDDs.  They average 100" of snowfall and approximately 1,600 SDDs.  And their DJF temp will probably shatter their old record by 3-5F, with records going back to the early 1900s.  This is an abomination, and doesn't deserve to be minimized.  From both an emotional and data-related standpoint, how can people be ok with this?  Why isn't everyone furious and worried? The shocking thing about Winter 2023-24 is how bad it has been across nearly all of the Lower 48.  Usually, at least some places have winter while others miss out - but this season, it's across the board.

That's what he and I are trying to say - trying to get people to care, and to stop minimizing things.  It's not right for winters to be warm like this.  People can debate the degree of CC vs. natural variability...but, either way, it's just not right.  So, we should say it.  And don't even get me started on UHI - a whole other issue which is extremely concerning.  If you step back and realize how much humans can impact temps in a city environment, it seems so unnatural...yet everyone just accepts it and moves on.  The normal January low at ORD has increased by 4-5F over 40 years - how can that be ok??  We as a society should be doing everything possible to stop this - but no one cares at all.  Gee, I wonder why - everything is "individual freedom" - heaven forbid we pool together and take collective action to solve problems. Individual freedom should be A consideration, not THE consideration. And then when a group of people actually does work very hard and summon up the courage to try to change something, it gets stalled because society/government/policy wonks/corporations/etc. don't want anything to change.  

For people who love winter, it has been hard to suffer through every winter since 2014-15. That's 9 winters in a row.  You can have the other 275 days in the year - what's so wrong with letting people have 90 days of consistent winter?  Most people on this board love winter, yet they act like bullies and put everyone else down when they express their true thoughts.  Why aren't we all in this together?  What's the problem with admitting that you love the season, and that the current situation is horrible? 

It doesn't matter what ENSO and the 5,000 other cyclical indices say; there should be more than 10 "good" days, even in the worst winters.  Not expecting 90 days - but at least 50 or 60.  The good folks in Minocqua and nearly every other place in the Lower 48 are suffering because of this.  No one wants to have a drink at the local watering hole, or get together with friends at a nice restaurant, when there is no snow for skiing, tubing, stargazing, snowshoeing, and other activities.  And a true, deep winter-like White Christmas (not just 1-3" of slop at best) has become a pipe dream, even though it's the shortest days of the year and it should just happen because of the calendar and the mystique around it.  The winter atmosphere is slipping away, and everyone is just staying silent while it happens.  It's catastrophic - so please let people speak up about it without feeling shy about it, and spread the word.  There is no need to rationalize something that is so bad - we just need to admit how horrible it is, and stop being in denial.  It can't and shouldn't be rationalized.

And I'm not saying we'll never have good snowstorms or occasional cold outbreaks again.  But that doesn't really matter either way...because winter is a mindset based on duration and consistency simply due to the calendar, not the ups and downs of individual storms and needing to hope for certain patterns to produce anything resembling true winter cold. In summer, we don't worry about warm temps - they just happen. And that's great, for summer. I'm not opposed to summer and any other seasons - just let them fit into their appropriate place on the calendar.

One thing I do agree on - there should be a separate thread for climate-related info.  But there's no need to jump down people's throats simply because they express genuine concern and frustration.  There could be a kind request to start a new thread - very simple.  In many aspects of life, it's difficult to deal with situations where you feel alone, like you're the only one experiencing something.  One purpose of these forums is to bring people together who have a common interest - so let's get back to that and support each other. It would probably be easier if we knew each other in person, instead of typing keystrokes through a screen.  I just want all of us to have good intentions, and do things for the right reasons.

If you want to take the "not so serious" angle - that's fine too.  For people who love winter, it has just sucked lately - there's no other way around it.  So let us complain and vent; I wish others did the same.  Stop the bickering - nothing to hide.

LMAO. No. He literally has zero knowledge of any weather past or present in our region other than playing around on xmacis. The examples are countless, but he couldnt even tell you what happened last year, much less 10 years ago or 140 years ago. I was informed by his majesty that DTWs 37.1" of snow last winter was not representative of SE MI because Toledo Express Apt (70 miles SW of DTW) only had 14.3". Even though Ann Arbor 25 miles west had 51.6", & White Lake (40 miles north) had 44.7" and Flint 46.5". I really dont even think he has a genuine interest in CC, its obviously more an extremist agenda for him. We have a CC forum for this reason. Just like we have banter threads, general month threads, storm threads etc.

 

In any of your other rants, you get on anyone citing a statistic, an average, or etc, letting them know that it is unacceptable to like winter and accept average. Yet you come to the defense of the most one-dimentional type of poster there is, nothing but numbers with zero explanation. Just confusing to me. What do I think of this winter? I think its been HORRIBLE!!! But two unusually warm winters in a row with a roaring pacific and this year a strong Nino is not going to suddenly be your new climate. There is a difference between weather and climate, and I dont think anyone on here denies global CC, so we shouldnt all have to put in a preface acknowledging CC anytime we want to make a post discussing WEATHER on a WEATHER forum. 

 

BTW, I know we did a little better here in MI, but its a crime to lump this winter in with every year since 2015. We have had some great months and one good harsh winter (17-18). Did we come down to earth from the snow blitz before that? Absolutely! Let me explain to you how averages work. Since 2015-16, Chicago has averaged 34.9" of snow the past 8 winters, which is about 2" below the longterm avg. The previous 8 winters before that Chicago averaged 50.9", about 14" above avg. No way in hell were they going to sustain that. And yes, I am aware you dont accept your average. Im just explaining.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...