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February 2024 General Discussion


Spartman
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In other news. With the warmth yesterday. GRB is now up to a +17.1 (!) departure for the month. And that's probably not going to come down to earth all that much in the next 5-7 days going by the point forecast. Even if we had a repeat of the Mid-January cold wave, and that's not looking likely at all, we'd still be talking about probably at least a +5 anomaly for the month. We have to be pretty much locked in for at least a top 15 if not top 10 warmest February at this point. 

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2 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

In other news. With the warmth yesterday. GRB is now up to a +17.1 (!) departure for the month. And that's probably not going to come down to earth all that much in the next 5-7 days going by the point forecast. Even if we had a repeat of the Mid-January cold wave, and that's not looking likely at all, we'd still be talking about probably at least a +5 anomaly for the month. We have to be pretty much locked in for at least a top 15 if not top 10 warmest February at this point. 

Crazy stuff. This must be a 1 in 1000-year winter heat wave up there, but barely registering with our derelict media these days.

Minneapolis

image.png.01ba078042313492af2e2615d9b0b37f.png

Green Bay

image.png.47fc4860f9485d94778bff53d2c1c83d.png

Milwaukee

image.png.340d4a9132a8875842be72b898c5c2df.png

 

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12 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Crazy stuff. This must be a 1 in 1000-year winter heat wave up there, but barely registering with our derelict media these days.

Minneapolis

image.png.01ba078042313492af2e2615d9b0b37f.png

Green Bay

image.png.47fc4860f9485d94778bff53d2c1c83d.png

Milwaukee

image.png.340d4a9132a8875842be72b898c5c2df.png

 

I am not denying it is warm or data you have presented for these locations.  I am expecting a lot more warmth records to fall in the years to come.

But the statement of this being 1 in 1000 years is typical fear mongering type tactic.   We are missing a good 800+ years of identical daily/moment by moment data to make this statement.  In recent years these type of statements have been a lot more popular to use in the Meteorological world and many times it is disingenuous and intentionally used for as headline grabbing tactics.

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On 2/9/2024 at 3:06 PM, Danny8 said:

So how are things looking in the UP @weatherbo and  @wishforsnow? Any trails open at all?

I'm sure trails in general are in bad shape like most of the UP but here, off the beaten path, two tracks are still snow covered and wooded areas have between 8-11 inches.  Took these photos yesterday after things froze back up... 9 inches here at the house, but this area had some of the deepest snow in Michigan at the peak of the winter blast with close to 3 feet otg.  Didn't think a winter like this was possible in the UP.  Haven't broken 100 inches yet with the total being somewhere around 75-80 inches imby.
 

Did received an inch of snow overnight and this morning with temps today more seasonable in the low-20's.  Upcoming clipper pattern can deliver some nice surprises too, but my hopes for deep winter conditions have faded substantially.

100048788_thumbnail(5).thumb.jpg.00046f2bcc5b8bdd96a1fa0810be1720.jpg

thumbnail.thumb.jpg.f04b57c4a0316877068ad0916afe48bb.jpg

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For some who have, or may wish to ever come skiing up along the North Shore, sad news. Lutsen's main lodge burned down last week. It was built in the 40's, and was a replacement from a fire back then, too. Lutsen's history is well over 100 years (since the late 1800's I believe). Just read it in our free local paper. I don't use social media, so I'm sure others knew long before I did. Fire Marshall is investigating, so at some point, should know what caused it. Not that skiing, or any winter sports is enjoying a good year this year. They will rebuild, but that will take time. How it will affect their operations in general. not sure, especially for next season.

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On 2/10/2024 at 9:08 AM, Lightning said:

I am not denying it is warm or data you have presented for these locations.  I am expecting a lot more warmth records to fall in the years to come.

But the statement of this being 1 in 1000 years is typical fear mongering type tactic.   We are missing a good 800+ years of identical daily/moment by moment data to make this statement.  In recent years these type of statements have been a lot more popular to use in the Meteorological world and many times it is disingenuous and intentionally used for as headline grabbing tactics.

Well, 1877-78 was always considered to be the warmest of record by far, including the pioneer era records at Fort Snelling dating back to 1820. So when there's more than 200 years of data, and it's beating the record by nearly 3F, I think 1 in 1000 is a reasonable estimate for a recurrence interval, no?

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16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Well, 1877-78 was always considered to be the warmest of record by far, including the pioneer era records at Fort Snelling dating back to 1820. So when there's more than 200 years of data, and it's beating the record by nearly 3F, I think 1 in 1000 is a reasonable estimate for a recurrence interval, no?

There's a possibility that the W sub experienced similar conditions back in the 1700's. Tree ring reconstruction of ENSO shows this. Data would be very nice, but it's all we have. And of course, other teleconnections need to be in play, as well, to get what we have now.

I've had this chart for a few years. Sorry, don't remember where I saved it from. Not a big fan of tree ring data, but it can be useful sometimes.

enso_treerings_reconstruction-1024x483.png

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19 minutes ago, Brian D said:

There's a possibility that the W sub experienced similar conditions back in the 1700's. Tree ring reconstruction of ENSO shows this. Data would be very nice, but it's all we have. And of course, other teleconnections need to be in play, as well, to get what we have now.

I've had this chart for a few years. Sorry, don't remember where I saved it from. Not a big fan of tree ring data, but it can be useful sometimes.

enso_treerings_reconstruction-1024x483.png

One of the 1850s winters was extremely mild, I think 1857-58?

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10 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Looks like advisory level snows across southern Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon. Another painful miss for the twin cities to maintain seasonal trends. I’ll go with 0.3” at the airport final call. 

Where do you think the absolute lowest snowfall is so far this season in Minnesota? Do you think it's Twin Cities proper or somewhere else? I was thinking it might be somewhere South and West of the metro but there's really no first order stations. 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Where do you think the absolute lowest snowfall is so far this season in Minnesota? Do you think it's Twin Cities proper or somewhere else? I was thinking it might be somewhere South and West of the metro but there's really no first order stations. 

Somewhere SW of the metro is the futility bullseye, some farm has probably seen ~2-4 of snowfall all winter. The official measuring site for Minneapolis is the airport which is just about smack dab in the middle of the metro - 7.3” season to date. The WFO office is in Chanhassen a suburb 22 miles SW of the airport. After a 100” season last year the WFO is sitting at 5.8” currently. The NWS map, while far from perfect, shows a broad area to my SW with under 6” accumulation to date. 

946751D5-875E-48A5-BA5E-3B82A437B2ED.jpeg

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12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

One of the 1850s winters was extremely mild, I think 1857-58?

What I can glean from Ft Snelling written notes, Dec 1857 was mild, and Jan 1858 was too, but Feb turned cold. My monthly data charts confirm this.

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2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

IMG_5562.jpeg

Awesome these past few mornings!!  Temps low 20s and sunny!! :sun:  

Wish I wasn't in the office today.  I would take the dog for a wonderful morning walk like I have the past few days.

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