AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 My clown of the night, the 00z GFS run all the way out to 384 hours. This one is going to focus on Atlantic Canada, where several spots are clowned all the way up to 281cm, which is over 9ft. Fun! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: My clown of the night, the 00z GFS run all the way out to 384 hours. This one is going to focus on Atlantic Canada, where several spots are clowned all the way up to 281cm, which is over 9ft. Fun! Yea, like that will verify...6" in Boston? Take the under lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, like that will verify...6" in Boston? Take the under lol Don't worry, that's 6cm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Hmm odd blue sky this morning, we take. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 21 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: That looks like all NW cold dry flow there. Theres no southern stream and it screams suppression . We’ll pass on 2 weeks of 26/15 and dry cracked ground and skin 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 27 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Hmm odd blue sky this morning, we take. Space aliens have entered the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 8 hours ago, qg_omega said: I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward@Coastalwx @ORH_wxman @Mitchnick @JBenedet @Typhoon Tip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 36 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Hmm odd blue sky this morning, we take. Hard for the eyes to adjust. I feel like a mole coming out of a tunnel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 Hope you feel better quickly. But how do you get jet lag with a 1 hour time difference?3 hour flight plus I never flown beforeSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward As you should know, the cause for the warming has been the current MJO wave. It's been on the models for at least 8 days as evidenced by the attached Eps 850 wind anomaly forecast from 1/25. It's been on the models longer than that, but I don't have anything else handy to attach. And considering the Eps have been showing the upcoming pattern change since before 1/25, I think it's fair to say the models have figured it into their forecasts. So to quote a well-respected wx enthusiast, "no changes." Moreover, it's the strong MJO wave that's prompting the threat of a SSW. After this equatorial warming event, the Niño is toast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 51 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Hmm odd blue sky this morning, we take. I remember seeing that a long time ago. Still stuck in never ending clouds and flurries here. It's like Narnia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 A couple of tenths C is not gonna alter long wave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 37 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I mentioned this earlier but we are seeing a very rapid strengthening and warming of this El Niño over the last 7 days (WWB/-SOI related). Region 3.4 is over +1.9C and fast approaching +2C, region 3 almost at +2C. None of the models predicted this and it is extremely unusual to see a Nino event strengthening in February. IMO this is going to be a big unexpected factor in the global long wave pattern and PAC jet going forward I realize there's close to 300 pages on the matter out in the main WNC forum ...but I'm willing to hunch that is transient. There was a pretty significant WWB over the past 2 to 3 weeks in association with a rare feat: an MJO that actually coupled ... But, those come and go and as the curve shows, there are many intra-seasonal variances that can be triggered by short duration wind related stressing patterns. If using the same metrical supposition - we'll see what the MJO desk/CPC thinks about it Monday or Tuesday. But anyway, it may not represent a real longer term push 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 25 and sunny . Weird to get excited about either but oddly I am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Me when I woke up this morning and sun was streaming through my window. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 53 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 25 and sunny . Weird to get excited about either but oddly I am Maybe you have S.A.D. latency lol. Actually, I was kind of liking the cloudy days. It was still air and cold enough underneath that the ground coverage persisted. For a shit winter ...we've actually managed to count up some "snow on the ground days" - it's just not been very deep. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe you may S.A.D. latency lol. Actually, I was kind of liking the cloudy days. It was still air and cold enough underneath that the ground coverage persisted. For a shit winter ...we've actually managed to count up some "snow on the ground days" - it's just not been very deep. Agreed. Clouds good for pack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 25 and sunny . Weird to get excited about either but oddly I am Tomorrow Tip will talk about first nape zephyrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Maybe you may S.A.D. latency lol. Actually, I was kind of liking the cloudy days. It was still air and cold enough underneath that the ground coverage persisted. For a shit winter ...we've actually managed to count up some "snow on the ground days" - it's just not been very deep. I liked it because it helped protect the light pack . But with grass blades now showing and nothing to look forward to wxwise .. may as well be sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tomorrow Tip will talk about first nape zephyrs. Nah ... might be some hints of that appeal, but the real deal is this next Friday and Saturday. Well, depending which guidance one chooses. The blend of the Euro and GGEM? Ho man. I don't care what the 2-m layouts depict, if that synopsis pans out under Feb 9 full sun, it will be in the low to mid 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 23 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: That looks like all NW cold dry flow there. Theres no southern stream and it screams suppression . We’ll pass on 2 weeks of 26/15 and dry cracked ground and skin https://x.com/burgwx/status/1753582543599714764?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1753582543599714764?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Could end up dry for second half of February but it also might not. It’s a split flow pattern out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Yeah…not worried about suppression at this point in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The only thing suppressed this season is my snowfall. Not worried at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 It's highly unlikely to go 0-for in that look. The other aspect ... due to the climate signal relationship with elevating global PWATs being a constant integral problem to all synoptic manifolds in real f'ing undeniable, incontrovertible time ... trying to ask New England ( of all places and climate ) to go 2 weeks in a wildly amplifying +PNA, is tantamount to not having a great deal of talent in the field of deterministic meteorology - that's the long way of saying dumb. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Could end up dry for second half of February but it also might not. It’s a split flow pattern out west. That is a strong STJ underneath that PNA ridge....willing to bet that we get something unless a PV lobe parks itself over Montreal. These longe range CPC charts are of no more value than some of the day 15 deterministic OP runs that draw the ire of so many and result in a barrage of weenie emojis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Not worried with ridge axis over One Eyed Willy’s cave along the coast of Oregon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, CoastalWx said: Not worried with ridge axis over One Eyed Willy’s cave along the coast of Oregon. I said that to @brooklynwx99yesterday...it actually favors the interior, at least initially. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said that to @brooklynwx99yesterday...it actually favors the interior, at least initially. yeah i’d say the first crack at it around the 13-15th favors the interior, then it’s fair game for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 52 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Me when I woke up this morning and sun was streaming through my window. Elon Musk ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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