Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

look, give me a bowling ball, a juiced STJ, and confluence in a strong Nino February and it can be worked out

A couple days ago I said it wasn’t a HECS pattern, and while I still think it’s not, a few smallish changes definitely open the door to a MECS. More westward position of the central Canada ride with a poleward orientation plus the ULL in the 50/50 position. Devil is in timing and location of those features.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, we just need part of that TPV to phase with the ss wave. That’s the path to victory on Feb 4-6

My gut feel is that other models will come north

Something that needs to be resolved is the handling of the trough as it crosses the Rockies. The gfs is mostly alone is completely splitting the trough then burying the main energy into Mexico. That’s game over for any Feb 5-6 storm. 
 

Ggem, euro, Icon and even the gefs mostly favor the trough elongating then ejecting the main energy into the southern plains and crossing east either through the TN valley gulf coast. That still doesn’t guarantee a storm. Some runs within that solution still mess up the phase or squash the storm. There are other variables that need to work out also. But that first one, whether the trough splits and digs into Mexico is critical before any of the others matter. 
 

One oddity. I’m not an expert in handling energy in the mountain west. But I follow the meteorologists on OpenSnow. They do great daily write up’s for every major ski resort area. Looking at some of the write up’s for Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, they seem to be favoring the gfs trough split. I find that odd because the gfs is mostly alone in that solution. Without experience just modelology I would never favor the gfs v consensus. But again, they might be leaning on experience here and that matters. Or perhaps they are just being pessimistic (the gfs trough split would leave the ski areas dry) because it’s been an awful season so far out west. 
 

But anyways just thought I’d point that out because it’s not getting much attention, and imo how that ejects out west matters as much as what’s going on over top of us. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That southern stream wave is juiced. Any appreciable phasing would make this a significant event somewhere east of the Appalachian front. Going to be a tight case, but the bigger events are always about timing. CMC shows a path to victory. GFS still disconnected, but that southern wave is a beast.

100% agree not too often you have a 993mb-996mb low that far south in Central Gulf to Cape Canaveral I too believe this is probably coming north in time on the GFS all about timing and how the energy ejects out of the southwestern states as it heads across the south. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of cmc ensembles finally get us to that weeklies look
87889de2df7f9233f10b0cfdbc4fedef.jpg


.

I’ve been unconcerned because the guidance isn’t in any conflict with the main feature which is the North Pacific trough. Yes as we get closer there are issues with exactly where and when waves will be. But so long as that pacific look is there it will work out. Energy out west will have to kick east. Ridges will be transient. The nao will slowly go more negative from the resultant wave breaking. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A couple days ago I said it wasn’t a HECS pattern, and while I still think it’s not, a few smallish changes definitely open the door to a MECS.

Hard to see how we get above average without at LEAST a MECS. Finishing under 25-30" in the cities is gonna be a bust, imo. You're gonna need a 12-15 incher, and the a couple more events like we got week before last. I do hope the pattern can at least give us that!

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pattern change is still stuck at hr384, but it's not really trending too well before then. +PNA of significance showed up 5 days ago on the last panel, and it's still on that last panel.. trended to neutral +1-5 days. 

Still on the last panel today, the 6th day. Finally starting to slightly pop a western ridge though at 6z 384hr.  

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hard to see how we get above average without at LEAST a MECS. Finishing under 25-30" in the cities is gonna be a bust, imo. You're gonna need a 12-15 incher, and the a couple more events like we got week before last. I do hope the pattern can at least give us that!

I believe @WxUSAFwas referring more specifically to the potential around Feb. 4-6, and not to the pattern for the remainder of the winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CMC doesn’t have ensemble support

GEFS sticking with the suppressed idea, but are north of the op

Op euro 12z same as 0z, but no confidence because it moved the TPV 1,500 miles from yesterday’s 12z

We’ll see what the EPS has to say

 

I did notice something though. In order for feb 4-6 to work for us, we need that omega block to close off into a rex block. Rather than an open block that crushes everything east of it, if we have a closed upper high over S Canada, that might give the ss wave extra room to come north. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That annoying Barney shot ULL needs to move east or west, where it’s at now on the euro won’t work. East could allow it to come N, W could allow it to phase better. Still in range where we could see large changes.


.

"We just can't know?"  ....... I don't think any of this is ironed out until at the earliest Tuesday or Wednesday.  Like you said lots of time to go!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

CMC doesn’t have ensemble support

GEFS sticking with the suppressed idea, but are north of the op

Op euro 12z same as 0z, but no confidence because it moved the TPV 1,500 miles from yesterday’s 12z

We’ll see what the EPS has to say

 

I did notice something though. In order for feb 4-6 to work for us, we need that omega block to close off into a rex block. Rather than an open block that crushes everything east of it, if we have a closed upper high over S Canada, that might give the ss wave extra room to come north. 

ULL is west on 12z EPS, still quashes the ss wave but getting closer to a phase. If this is a new trend, we’ll want to keep it going to get them phased. But like Heisy said, large scale changes are still likely to happen

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

ULL is west on 12z EPS, still quashes the ss wave but getting closer to a phase. If this is a new trend, we’ll want to keep it going to get them phased. But like Heisy said, large scale changes are still likely to happen

What does the EPS look like at the extended range? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

ULL is west on 12z EPS, still quashes the ss wave but getting closer to a phase. If this is a new trend, we’ll want to keep it going to get them phased. But like Heisy said, large scale changes are still likely to happen

Like many have stated,  it is still a long ways off given the complicated set-up. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

can is kicked to Feb 11th which was the target day 2 weeks ago lol

index (87).png

 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow. a change of two days at a two week lead time. devastating

Actually looking only at the orientation of the height contours and ignoring the blue/orange overlayed anomalies, that's not a half bad looking flow? Low heights establishing near the Aleutians, building up a PNA ridge with an undercutting trough in the southwest, and what looks like confluent flow in the northeast? 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

We're heading towards a nice pattern. My only concern is how long does it take to get temps right? 

If it's a week them were at 2/20. If it takes longer than a week then well......

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_65.png

It is cold enough to snow next week, if storm track would improve.

To keep my hopes in check, sticking with a two weeks out approach.  This week we have a weak clipper.  Next week we have a southern storm with some potential to come north.

IMG_3042.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The latest Euro Weeklies today advance the trough by the 12th further to the east vs. yesterday’s Weeklies run.

Today’s run top

Yesterday’s run bottom 

IMG_4793.png

IMG_4794.png

Good catch! I didn’t notice it

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...