LeesburgWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Every storm has been trending south up to game time this year. Who reversed the north trend cursed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: If this happens it's going to be the Stormtracker-Man storm. It’s the third in a short period of time and has evolved into good after not looking good mostly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The Loudoun hate had to stop. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 We're in that climo period where it isn't that hard to get snow here. Obv interior looks best when it comes to the potential of accumulating. I'm interested. Even 0.5" is a stats padder for me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 hours ago, Ji said: Be careful you don’t drive him away. He is one of our best posters Relax Randy’s stuff is in good fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 hours ago, AtlanticWx said: temp anomalies are fairly below average for the same time period though. i wouldn't expect extended ensembles to have good thermals in regards to individual events - that is most definitely not what they're mad for and you can't disregard a pattern because of controls runs. i get the concern but really i don't see where this is stemming from 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Then that makes even less sense. How are the anoms below normal, perfect looking pattern, yet no snow? And of the things that could make a storm rainy...would snow means pick up on discreet features like that? If this is an error I'm wondering why it's been repeated over 10 days of runs...Doesn't make sense. I don’t know what to make of it. It’s an anomaly that’s unusual and something I’ve not seen before. I’m sticking a pin in it. That’s it. I’d much rather the pattern look good than the snow products. The details usually follow the pattern. 4 hours ago, AtlanticWx said: because extended ensembles aren't made to pick out individual storms & all. they're mostly used to identify general features like precip anomalies, temp anomalies etc and give u a good idea ab the pattern. using them to explain why a pattern is bad bc it doesn't produce snow doesn't rlly make sense imo bc it's not made for that You’re jumping between two arguments here though. I was using individual control runs to analyze why the means might be doing that. The individual runs do pick out wave tracks. They have to because those tracks are a product of the thermal boundary which is a product of the pattern. They’re all related. You couldn’t design a product to accurately predict the pattern but disregard thermals or storm track. They’re all linked. Screwing up one affects the others. Look I can’t explain it. It’s weird. I don’t get it either. It makes no sense at all to have that kind of blocking and pattern and not much snow south of 40. It just doesn’t. So I pointed out something very unusual. People can make of it what they want or dismiss it. I haven’t really edited my expectations at all based on this. I’m just flagging an oddity and we can come back to it later if it actually goes down that way. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Little to no support for the GFS op on the GEFS, or any other guidance for the 0z cycle. Clear signal for frozen to our north. Snow tv on the back end seems doable. Maybe a little more than that up near the PA line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Our next best chance for something other than rain looks to be in the Feb 6-10 window, as the longwave pattern transitions to more favorable. There are quite a few hints on the 0z ensembles during that period. Cold air availability looks marginal, but the atmosphere finds ways to snow in February, especially in a Nino. EPS has something cooking for the 6th. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 WB 0Z GEFS, nice to see the continent cooling by the 9th. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 WB 6Z GFS... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 WB Day 11 GFS.... parade of storms with temps cooling ahead of schedule.... buckle up!!!!! 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: I don't think this amounts to much of anything for DMV, but as I said in an earlier post, it is nice to see that cold air is not too far away during our lull. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Webb sans flame emoji 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t know what to make of it. It’s an anomaly that’s unusual and something I’ve not seen before. I’m sticking a pin in it. That’s it. I’d much rather the pattern look good than the snow products. The details usually follow the pattern. You’re jumping between two arguments here though. I was using individual control runs to analyze why the means might be doing that. The individual runs do pick out wave tracks. They have to because those tracks are a product of the thermal boundary which is a product of the pattern. They’re all related. You couldn’t design a product to accurately predict the pattern but disregard thermals or storm track. They’re all linked. Screwing up one affects the others. Look I can’t explain it. It’s weird. I don’t get it either. It makes no sense at all to have that kind of blocking and pattern and not much snow south of 40. It just doesn’t. So I pointed out something very unusual. People can make of it what they want or dismiss it. I haven’t really edited my expectations at all based on this. I’m just flagging an oddity and we can come back to it later if it actually goes down that way. yeah i get the concern, but to me the weeklies snow means looks great. there's a constant 2"+ mean for the 7 day snow between the 19th and 28th. the snow axis is gonna be N of us because it's js climo and it's still so far out, so it's smoothed out to the point that it looks unfavorable for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Webb sans flame emoji I'm guessing he realizes southward displaced jet extensions are common during Nino events, although it comes across otherwise. Ofc he has been telling people extended jet = torch for so long, now he is forced to backpedal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 hours ago, stormtracker said: LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 hours ago, stormtracker said: Where the fuck is everybody? We have an impending MECS on the GFS in less than 105 hours!! if you don't consider the surface temp above freezing and it's during the daytime....start a thread! Wait..I was joking but...it's all during Sunday night Prob too busy overanalyzing rainstorms and how much snow would be falling from it in the 1960's. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB Day 11 GFS.... parade of storms with temps cooling ahead of schedule.... buckle up!!!!! Looks like a double barrell shot for that time with another southern slider in tow on fantasy range. Close enough off shore to make it trackable. Cold air looks to be in place as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 this somehow didnt work out like i planned. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: this somehow didnt work out like i planned. Well, don’t look now but 6z op shows 3 hits down underneath into NC. Right where we want it? Btw I’m not worried about lack of snow on the means on the weeklies. It’s just not something to take seriously until discrete threats show up in range. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 31 minutes ago, Wxdood said: Prob too busy overanalyzing rainstorms and how much snow would be falling from it in the 1960's. Heaven forbid!! On this day in 1967 it was 72 degrees at Staunton! The 06z GFS op. gives Boone N.C. 26 inches of snow during early Feb...... The EPS will save us! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 46 minutes ago, CAPE said: I'm guessing he realizes southward displaced jet extensions are common during Nino events, although it comes across otherwise. Ofc he has been telling people extended jet = torch for so long, now he is forced to backpedal. People sensationalize EVERYTHING nowadays. Gotta yell at the sky and your followers right?! Lol. Gotta be first too! Haha. It is a crappy snow pattern and it is happening as modeled. The way out has remained locked in. Doesn't have to be a scorch the earth and leave charred remains to be a terrible snow pattern. Imo, bigger deals are too often made with just about everything since the internet became more important than reality. Hahahaha 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 a really nice pattern beginning next weekend emerging on the 6z GFS......unfortunately it will be gone at 12z.........nice to see storm after storm after storm threat with some cold around... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Webb swapping flame emojis for weenie emojis 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The longwave pattern becomes quite favorable by Feb 10. The 6z GEFS teleconnections: -AO, neutral NAO trending negative, -EPO/WPO, slightly +PNA. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Webb swapping flame emojis for weenie emojis March gonna be a snow month again. The best h5 looks on the extended tools are late Feb-mid March. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The longwave pattern becomes quite favorable by Feb 10. The 6z GEFS teleconnections: -AO, neutral NAO trending negative, -EPO/WPO, slightly +PNA. that split flow is what we were missing from the mid-Jan pattern. you're gonna get blocking a few days after this look as well 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1750514866593395179?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: that split flow is what we were missing from the mid-Jan pattern. you're gonna get blocking a few days after this look as well Lots of action in the southern stream on that run. And yeah it looks like the NAO will become more negative towards mid month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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