XMAS Miracle: Blizzard of 2010 Lead-in Dialogue

[Clinch Leatherwood]

EC ensembles took the low to maybe 30 miles east of CHH or so. Mix maybe up to your area, but bombing low will help limit warm air penetration.

I think given all the tracks from last night, and previous history we have to assume both the dry slot and warm air will be further NW than modeled which is good for quite a few based on the old runs. With these tracks it will rain here or mix, probably rain. I'm just hoping if this is the track trend it continues pushing NW so western Maine gets dumped.

That said the 6z NAM/GFS...the NAM seems to be doing better. The GFS appears to have some timing issues if the RUC/WV are right. BUT AGAIN just like yesterday with NCEPs charlie sheen moment these little errors tend not to matter much. We shall see.

[CoastalWx]

4-8" here, will update if needed after 12z run.

The models are leveling off, but I wouldn't be shocked if it ticked nw. If the euro and gfs are right...up that 4-8" man.

Even if it moves se by like 30 miles...It won't mean much to you and Kevin.

[SnowMan]

12 to 15 for Danvers area....too much?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just sick!

Station ID: KTAN Lat:   41.87 Long:  -71.02                                                        
NAM Model Run:  6Z 25DEC 2010
 HR Valid 	2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in. 	Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 12/25 06Z   22 	17 	334   	8    0.00  0.00    532    544   -4.3 -24.0 1014   0          CLR   	0.0   15.1
  3 12/25 09Z   21 	16 	343   	7    0.00  0.00    532    544   -4.5 -23.8 1015  59   	252BKN269    0.0   15.1
  6 12/25 12Z   20 	17 	333   	6    0.00  0.00    530    543   -4.9 -23.5 1016  75   	251BKN279    0.0   15.1
  9 12/25 15Z   27 	22 	354   	6    0.00  0.00    531    544   -4.2 -22.4 1016  96   	188BKN309    0.0   14.9
 12 12/25 18Z   30 	24 	355   	4    0.00  0.00    530    543   -4.7 -23.3 1015 100   	118OVC256    0.0   15.1
 15 12/25 21Z   30 	28 	358   	1    0.00  0.00    529    542   -4.8 -23.8 1015 100   	024OVC214    0.0   15.1
 18 12/26 00Z   28 	26 	355   	2    0.00  0.00    529    541   -4.1 -26.0 1015 100   	094OVC304    0.0   15.1
 21 12/26 03Z   28 	27 	345   	2    0.00  0.00    528    541   -4.7 -24.9 1016 100   	068OVC296    0.0   15.1
 24 12/26 06Z   27 	26   	4   	4    0.00  0.00    529    541   -4.8 -24.0 1015 100   	206OVC283    0.0   15.1
 27 12/26 09Z   27 	26   	1   	5    0.00  0.00    529    541   -5.5 -23.8 1015 100   	027OVC292    0.0   15.1
 30 12/26 12Z   29 	29   	9   	5    0.00  0.00    530    541   -5.6 -24.0 1014 100   	017OVC251    0.0   15.1
 33 12/26 15Z   33 	32      41   	8    0.00  0.00    530    542   -6.8 -23.7 1014 100   	004OVC254    0.0   14.0
 36 12/26 18Z   34 	33      47      11    0.02  0.00    532    542   -7.2 -25.1 1012 100 -SN   001OVC240    0.2    8.2
 39 12/26 21Z   32 	31      46      16    0.04  0.00    534    541   -6.9 -21.9 1008 100 -SN   000OVC279    0.5    1.0
 42 12/27 00Z   31 	31      36      19    0.24  0.00    536    539   -6.4 -18.2 1003 100 SN    000OVC248    2.4    0.4
 45 12/27 03Z   31 	30      21      20    0.39  0.00    535    535   -8.2 -21.0  999 100 SN    000OVC165    3.9    0.4
 48 12/27 06Z   29 	28      14      27    0.25  0.00    536    528   -7.5 -22.0  990 100 SN    003OVC245    2.5    0.5
 51 12/27 09Z   31 	29   	6      30    0.55  0.00    537    521   -6.3 -21.2  980 100 SN    000OVC261    5.7    0.3
 54 12/27 12Z   30 	29 	352      31    0.44  0.00    535    517   -6.2 -22.0  977 100 SN   	OVC247    4.6    0.3
 57 12/27 15Z   29 	27 	339      28    0.18  0.00    534    518   -8.0 -23.1  980 100 -SN   000OVC233    1.8    0.6
 60 12/27 18Z   27 	24 	323      23    0.09  0.00    531    519   -8.4 -22.0  984 100 -SN   001OVC170    0.9    1.7
 63 12/27 21Z   25 	21 	313      21    0.02  0.00    529    520   -8.3 -22.4  988 100   	002OVC104    0.0    7.1
 66 12/28 00Z   21 	14 	314      20    0.00  0.00    527    523   -6.3 -25.1  994  96   	036BKN077    0.0   15.1
 69 12/28 03Z   16      7 	313      18    0.00  0.00    526    524   -6.2 -26.9  997   0          CLR   	0.0   15.1
 72 12/28 06Z   14      6 	307      15    0.00  0.00    523    523   -7.4 -27.7  999   0          CLR   	0.0   15.1
 75 12/28 09Z   12      5 	295      12    0.00  0.00    520    520   -6.8 -30.8 1000  39   	135SCT182    0.0   14.9
 78 12/28 12Z   13      8 	289      11    0.00  0.00    519    520   -7.4 -31.6 1001  69   	044BKN071    0.0   15.1
 81 12/28 15Z   24 	20 	285      12    0.00  0.00    521    523   -7.2 -28.5 1002   0          CLR   	0.0   15.1
 84 12/28 18Z   31 	24 	294      13    0.00  0.00    525    526   -7.3 -22.8 1001   6   	109FEW116    0.0   15.1

[DomNH]

ASH never jackpots, but I hope to hell I see a foot in this. It's been far too long.

[Kbosch]

09z SREF's rolling in.

And they look amazing!

[moneypitmike]

The models are leveling off, but I wouldn't be shocked if it ticked nw. If the euro and gfs are right...up that 4-8" man.

Even if it moves se by like 30 miles...It won't mean much to you and Kevin.

Magic words.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looking good!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/09/index_x24_s_loop.shtml

[CoastalWx]

Looks like SREFs over BM?? Fairly large spread.

[Bostonseminole]

NAM rolling in, looks good so far, height look a little higher on the east coast.. but is early.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just total nudity right now..Complete nakedness

[weatherwiz]

Nothing better than waking up to a winter storm watch

[Baroclinic Zone]

Looks like SREFs over BM?? Fairly large spread.

Mean SLP looks inside BM by like 10-15 miles.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NAM rolling in, looks good so far, height look a little higher on the east coast.. but is early.

Critically in support of the GFS it's a little faster in the Mid MS Valley. It's a compromise with a heavy lean to the 6z GFS vs 6z NAM. With the southern vortmax which doesn't appear to matter as much props go to the 6z NAM, IMO.

[WeatherX]

Just total nudity right now..Complete nakedness

[Ginx snewx]

The models are leveling off, but I wouldn't be shocked if it ticked nw. If the euro and gfs are right...up that 4-8" man.

Even if it moves se by like 30 miles...It won't mean much to you and Kevin.

MPM dude you get some sick upslope, QPF is way underdone in the Berks and man the column is cold betcha you see ratios near 18-1

[CoastalWx]

Mean SLP looks inside BM by like 10-15 miles.

Yeah tough to tell with that spread. Looks nice man.

[dendrite]

[DomNH]

Eh...looking like those early EC runs that captured the low pretty far south and then it scooted ENE barely hitting NH. Do not like.

Are you a weenie? I get like 1''+ of QPF.

[ChrisM]

Nothing better than waking up to a winter storm watch

12-15" here.

[weatherwiz]

Looks like CT gets pounded on quite a few of those!

[dendrite]

Some monster hits

[Ginx snewx]

Hope you CT guys stocked up on Beers, packy closed today tomorrow, one beer per inch night tomorrow.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah tough to tell with that spread. Looks nice man.

It really does not matter to me. It's going to snow like a mutha!$@er!

[weatherwiz]

12-15" here.

Can't wait to make a snowfall map!

[moneypitmike]

MPM dude you get some sick upslope, QPF is way underdone in the Berks and man the column is cold betcha you see ratios near 18-1

:weight_lift:

[Organizing Low]

Merry christmas GFS!

[dendrite]

Are you a weenie? I get like 1''+ of QPF.

I deleted my post, but yeah...I'm still a little concerned about it bombing too far south with time.

Go measure your 2" of white grass.

[CoastalWx]

It really does not matter to me. It's going to snow like a mutha!$@er!

Check out the CF mesoscale stuff on those SREFS!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NAM considerably less amplified to start vs the 6z GFS on the EC. Heights on the top part of the ridge are lower/weaker, higher the bottom half as a s/w slides down.

Not much of a change yet.