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Snow Friday 1/19/24: is it a period of light snow (less than 2"), or is there a chance of a 5" swath in part of the NYC subforum? Event OBS.


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This post is at the seeming urging of multiple models this weekend offering a period of snow to the NYC subforum.  Presuming it occurs, it could begin late Thursday the 18th, or it could linger into early Saturday the 20th.  The coldest air of the season so far in NYC, may follow on gusty northwest winds next weekend,  the 20th-21st. 

There doesn't seem to be anything definitive per this Jan 14th issuance, except that a period of snow is expected for at least a portion of NYC subforum on Friday with below normal temps. It's a strong positive tilt trough that approaches from the Great Lakes-Ohio Valley late this coming week.  Attached the 12z/14 GEFS 500 MB mean left panel and 500 MB ensemble membership right panel. 

The NWS Sunday 'day' shift ensemble chance of 1/4" or greater snow-ice is attached as well as the 12z/14 EPS 24 hour positive snow accumulation ensembles ending around midnight Friday night.  The 18z/14 GEFS was lighter for the same period so I extended the 24 hour positive snow depth ending time to sunrise Saturday whereas the CMCE was faster with the snow so I ended it 00z/20.   

Overall this Dec-Jan winter, it is my impression the GEFS tends to be conservative forecasting snow, the CMCE more liberal with more abundant qpf as well.   

I may have to add rain in the tags for the coasts as we draw closer to the proposed thread day... for now the colder solution was favored but uncertainty exists. 

 

Title addition 1/17/24 503AM: Event OBS.  Tags: added rain/snow mix.

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Screen Shot 2024-01-14 at 6.30.47 PM.png

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2024-01-14 at 7.18.54 PM.png

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Screen Shot 2024-01-14 at 7.09.33 PM.png

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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

well this raises my eyebrows

gem_z500_vort_us_fh102_trend.gif

I’m wondering if this has to do with tonight’s storm trending more amped and putting a better 50/50 low in place. If that’s the case we should want tonight’s storm as close to the coast as possible, even if it means mixing issues. Then we can feast on Friday.

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Just now, LVblizzard said:

I’m wondering if this has to do with tonight’s storm trending more amped and putting a better 50/50 low in place. If that’s the case we should want tonight’s storm as close to the coast as possible, even if it means mixing issues. Then we can feast on Friday.

This was my thought a few days ago too, the closer to the coast storm 1 is, the closer to the coast storm 2 will be.

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Eastern Suffolk may get a nice storm on Friday. This one of those where Montauk gets 8 inches and the rest of the island 2-4”.

william Floyd parkway special 

I’m unemployed till January 29th. So. Maybe I’ll drive to Montauk if that’s the case. Maybe Jim cantore will be there :scooter:

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3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’m unemployed till January 29th. So. Maybe I’ll drive to Montauk if that’s the case. Maybe Jim cantore will be there :scooter:

Long way to go. So far this looks like a nice event for us. Cold, storm well offshore and plenty of room for it to come west. 

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2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Speaking of which, who remembers the one in late winter 98 or 99 which was expected to be so out to sea that it never made the news and was barely discussed in whatever the forum of the day was, but it backed up and bombed out and left Montauk with 14", I think 6" to William Floyd, dusting at the Nassau/Suffolk line, and partly cloudy in Manhattan. 

Pretty sure I got a couple inches from that in Nassau.  I think it was Feb 1999.  Cape Cod got like 2 feet. 

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42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Pretty sure I got a couple inches from that in Nassau.  I think it was Feb 1999.  Cape Cod got like 2 feet. 

https://northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html

NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

 

MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM

EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM

SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM

BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM

ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM

NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM

PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM

RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM

MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM

FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM

SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM

RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM

ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM

CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM

FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM

OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM

NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM

LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM

KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM

GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM

CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM

WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM

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17 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

https://northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html

NEW YORK... 1130 AM EST FRI FEB 26 1999 THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

 

MONTAUK SUFFOLK 13.5 730 AM

EAST HAMPTON SUFFOLK 10.0 700 AM

SHINECOCK SUFFOLK 8.5 730 AM

BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 8.5 700 AM

ORIENT POINT SUFFOLK 8.0 700 AM

NWS OFFICE BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 6.4 700 AM

PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 5.9 700 AM

RIDGE SUFFOLK 5.0 730 AM

MOUNT SINAI SUFFOLK 4.7 700 AM

FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 4.6 800 AM

SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 4.5 800 AM

RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 4.0 700 AM

ISLIP SUFFOLK 3.0 700 AM

CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 2.8 800 AM

FARMINGDALE NASSAU 2.0 700 AM

OCEANSIDE NASSAU 1.8 600 AM

NORTH MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 1.5 700 AM

LA GUARDIA AP QUEENS 2.0 700 AM

KENNEDY AP QUEENS 1.0 700 AM

GRAVES END BROOKLYN KINGS 1.2 800 AM

CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 1.5 700 AM

WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 1.3 700 AM

That was a massive bust, forecast I believe was zippo for all of the area and it began snowing on the twin forks at like 3am and they went right to warnings

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

That was a massive bust, forecast I believe was zippo for all of the area and it began snowing on the twin forks at like 3am and they went right to warnings

I remember the snow backed in from the ocean. I can't remember what time that happened though. 

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