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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now


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40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

If the county does decent…that will be enough for me to take the first trip. Hoping for that. 

WS watch posted for northeast Maine, basically east of Rt 11 and down to extreme northern Wash Cty.  CAR has that area in the 8-12 color.

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think where I’m headed…St Agatha maybe more in the 6” zone…

I'll be headed to Presque Isle on Saturday, buddy got to camp on Little Madawaska lake last night, he had 12" on the deck, south of there was slim, hopefully this storm evens things out and clubs can connect the dots, have a new Rave 850 staring at me. 

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why I be damned ... the 12z GFS appears to lay in .75" QPF in a frozen column for N ORH CO and S NH...  That puts the eastern end of the Rt 2 corridor in a warning event - low end anywho

sorry if I'm behind a little -

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34 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

HREF nice, solid light to moderate event.image.thumb.png.166dd25d38eebae0525e345eae6caaa3.png

Love me some big JEFE aka HREF.

side note: the last 5-10 pages of this thread were a rollercoaster ride and i didn't want to get off. 

We'll see what the 12Z EC says but thinking about bumping up an inch or two. Sleet and ZR is becoming a focus and real concern for tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

H5 closing off over LI, Thats where i was going with this, 10 days ago, This was looking like a storm in that millibar range you outlined, That does happen up in canada, It looks like it remains in the 995-1000mb range as it passes our lat.

OH, gotcha - different context

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I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange...

For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather
Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one
could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts
to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2
inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.
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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange...

For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather
Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one
could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts
to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2
inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.

I mean doesn't any ZR trigger a WWA?

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13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange...

For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather
Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one
could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts
to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2
inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.

After the Euro, they’ll update. 

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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yep, absolutely and they don't have one up. is that what you mean?

i was more referencing their snow map vs their "1-2" thoughts.

 

Yeah that's what I mean. I think they need to average 3"/12hrs over a zone so 2-3" wouldn't really cut it in the all snow zones I guess. But with the ZR mixing in over much of CT I'd think they would just go with the WWA anyway...unless they're saving it for the next shift.

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21 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I just read BOXs AFD. Seems really conservative to me given the latest model/trends and doesnt match up with what their map has. Strange...

For now, we have held off on issuing any Winter Weather
Advisories for the region. There is a good possibility one
could be issued due to the threat of freezing rain and impacts
to the Tuesday morning commute. Snowfall ranges between 1-2
inches with up to 3 inches possible in northeast Massachusetts.

I got no horse in this race, but this trend is a PITA for BOX.

Probably why they are gun shy. At least this is why I would be...

Doesn't help either with how cold biased the GFS has been up until go time...

9c558216-59df-4f43-a5d7-11ab54086555.gif

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11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I got no horse in this race, but this trend is a PITA for BOX.

Probably why they are gun shy. At least this is why I would be...

Doesn't help either with how cold biased the GFS has been up until go time...

9c558216-59df-4f43-a5d7-11ab54086555.gif

With the GEM "Warm Bias" and the GFS "Cold Bias", an in-between compromise would actually be in order here. Euro model will help be the decider.

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah that's what I mean. I think they need to average 3"/12hrs over a zone so 2-3" wouldn't really cut it in the all snow zones I guess. But with the ZR mixing in over much of CT I'd think they would just go with the WWA anyway...unless they're saving it for the next shift.

Much of CT? Seems like only SE sections . Unless you’re fully buying Reggie 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Much of CT? Seems like only SE sections . Unless you’re fully buying Reggie 

Both the Reggie and the GEM have a Canadian warmer bias, this is fairly well known. If those models were correct about the Jan 7th storm we had, I would have been rain through most of the storm, which of course I wasn't.

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