Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[radarman]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tetris??

they probably use some kind of IDW method to smooth it, but it breaks if they're averaging in zeroes from gridcells over the ocean, so they just crop the coastline where those could factor in.

[Greg]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No one off the cape is getting either of those extremes.

Didn't indicate that. But those on the far South Shore, Cape and Islands of course, and even at Logan Air Strip, which I call "a barge on the water", could be very well like that.

[CoastalWx]

Man I'm torn. What a PITA to call here. 

[mreaves]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Never understood this, I could care less about a Jack.

Unless it comes with Coke

[8611Blizz]

Expecting extreme gradient.  Here in west Somerville about 4 and probably 6 in north Arlington but east Somerville maybe 2.  At least it's  something.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So 0” along the entire coastlines of MA, RI and CT?

I think the best shot for a good snow in coastal CT is for the front thump to produce. That seems perfectly timed to me with it being after dark Saturday into early Sunday. If that’s trash, then it’ll end up a bust absent some serious CCB love during the late morning/afternoon. I still think there’s plowable even to the coast. 

[Professional Lurker]

I miss West Hartford...certainly got screwed at times, but was pretty fortunate to have three 2' snow events. I hate it here in Springfield. I so can't wait to move back into CT. 

Springfield sucks. Move out of the hood and into the country. Trust me, much better.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, Greg said:

Didn't indicate that. But those on the far South Shore, Cape and Islands of course, and even at Logan Air Strip, which I call "a barge on the water", could be very well like that.

I like that term-“Logan Air Strip”! 

[HinghamBoss]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man I'm torn. What a PITA to call here. 

As a forecaster, how much do you weight bigger picture local trends the last several years?  
 

General trend in our neck of the woods has been that we have busted low.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man I'm torn. What a PITA to call here. 

Really a coin flip for these areas. I wouldn’t be surprised by 2” of slop or 9” of paste at this point.

Some positives from the 12z runs so far is beefing back up the CCB at the end 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HinghamBoss said:

As a forecaster, how much do you weight bigger picture local trends the last several years?  
 

General trend in our neck of the woods has been that we have busted low.

You mean the forecast has been too low? Or the result has been lower than forecasted?

[8611Blizz]

Local TV Mets have made some adjustments near the coast but they may need to do that up until tomorrow night.

[HinghamBoss]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You mean the forecast has been too low? Or the result has been lower than forecasted?

Lower than forecasted.  I’d have to go back and look but feels like we have underperformed vs forecast / when it was marginal it almost always trended more negative.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Really a coin flip for these areas. I wouldn’t be surprised by 2” of slop or 9” of paste at this point.

Some positives from the 12z runs so far is beefing back up the CCB at the end 

It comes down to rates and track. If we get 2-3hr thump and then showery crap after we won't get much. If that front end can last and maybe limit warming a bit until the CF passes, could be 6+ for sure. 

And then there is distance from ocean. Sometimes that is the difference between like 34-35 where it won't accumulate much to like 32-33 where it won't stack efficient, but still accumulates. All this shit to weigh in.

[DJln491]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hell of a thump over CT on 12z GFS .. That's our hope several inches Saturday late evening and night would be nice..  Man that's perfect heavy snow in our hood between 5-6pm goes to town until about 1am after about 6-12" 

That early on Sat?  That would be good, thought it was more like 10pm-midnight by the time it gets going for most of the state

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Lower than forecasted.  I’d have to go back and look but feels like we have underperformed vs forecast / when it was marginal it almost always trended more negative.

I think last year I did ok. I usually am conservative when it's borderline for this area.  In other years I was actually on the lower side and we got more lol.

 

For you and I, I think it's probably good to be conservative and stress the difference several miles could make. There is actually a hint of latitude being involved too. 

[JoeSnowBOS]

Local TV Mets have made some adjustments near the coast but they may need to do that up until tomorrow night.

Downward for sure. They have not adjusted downward enough. 3-6 is too high


.

[8611Blizz]

3 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Downward for sure. They have not adjusted downward enough. 3-6 is too high


.

Yeah wcvb is too high imo. NBC is 2-4 1-3. I think that's more realistic. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It comes down to rates and track. If we get 2-3hr thump and then showery crap after we won't get much. If that front end can last and maybe limit warming a bit until the CF passes, could be 6+ for sure. 

And then there is distance from ocean. Sometimes that is the difference between like 34-35 where it won't accumulate much to like 32-33 where it won't stack efficient, but still accumulates. All this shit to weigh in.

Should be fun to track nonetheless. Little trends matter a lot for us. 00z should be interesting.

[JKEisMan]

Not sure if it's been posted, but PMM for 12z HREF.

Looks pretty healthy, esp east slopes of the Berks and ORH hills.

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

Downward for sure. They have not adjusted downward enough. 3-6 is too high


.

Well wait a minute....depends where in Boston. You could have 2-3" at the Seaport and more than double in Hyde Park/West Roxbury. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Positive depth chart means nothing to me unless you are 33/34 degrees during daylight and or horrible growth . Take the risk for the real snow and stay in CT. 

Well, it never means nothing....even if you are cold, snow will settle some...especially the more you have.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Expecting extreme gradient.  Here in west Somerville about 4 and probably 6 in north Arlington but east Somerville maybe 2.  At least it's  something.

One of my therapy clients is from Somerville....he asked last night and I said 3-6".

[JoeSnowBOS]

Well wait a minute....depends where in Boston. You could have 2-3" at the Seaport and more than double in Hyde Park/West Roxbury. 

I don’t see 4-6 in hyde park with these trends but guess we will known Sunday!


.

[weatherwiz]

Bufkit doesn't look bad for BOS. I could see BOS potentially getting in the 5-8'' range, especially if the banding blesses them. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well wait a minute....depends where in Boston. You could have 2-3" at the Seaport and more than double in Hyde Park/West Roxbury. 

Yeah we had a borderline event about 7 years  ago where I had to go to Brookline Village Walgreens-literally 3.2 miles from my house.  I was pounding to 6 inches and they were struggling with an inch of slop and white rain.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

I don’t see 4-6 in hyde park with these trends but guess we will known Sunday!


.

I could easily see that. Inland a bit and some elevation. Well parts of Hyde Park anyways.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

Yeah we had a borderline event about 7 years  ago where I had to go to Brookline Village Walgreens-literally 3.2 miles from my house.  I was pounding to 6 inches and they were struggling with an inch of slop and white rain.

I wonder of that was more from a coastal front? 

I was thinking more like in those borderline situations. My Grandparents lived in Hyde Park on a hill and that extra 200' or so elevation and being on the southwest side of the city helped in those borderline situations. Best example was on 3/31/97. Pounding snow there while Logan was a mix for a few hours.

[SJonesWX]

47 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Thanks Jon, but in looking at that positive depth chart, my house is in the bullseye lol. My wife isn't going to like it, but I'll offer to take the kids....

Jon? I thought @Sey-Mour Snow's name was Seymour Skinner

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I wonder of that was more from a coastal front? 

I was thinking more like in those borderline situations. My Grandparents lived in Hyde Park on a hill and that extra 200' or so elevation and being on the southwest side of the city helped in those borderline situations. Best example was on 3/31/97. Pounding snow there while Logan was a mix for a few hours.

Also, this could also be a storm where someone like me sees more than you because of distance from the water, even though you are well north of here