Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Congrats on your paster finally .. Hoping you get a solid foot of wet snow and lose power for 7 days

Gonna be a violent night of crime considering they have no police dept there.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

He had the 5th a hit and the 7th a whiff. He may get the cutter though.

I originally thought the 4-6th was more probability favored, too.  It was due to the proximity of the last +PNA. It was weakening in the projections... but still numerically valid.  In fact, it was/is valid (at the time) through the 10th, which is why I included the 6-8th - it was a matter of 'leaning'.  But because the 4-6th was still more embedded under the meatier side of +PNA curve ... and on and so on.

...It's always a conductor's migraine to try to 'cinema' these probabilities. It's predicated on the telecon projects also being right for one. But also, there's room to wiggle within a signal and end up with a result that can be less than ideally correlated ( looking ). 

This is definitely a hemisphere that would favor that latter aspect happening, with idiosyncrasies abounding. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Even if I lop off a third of those GFS totals, it should be a nice storm up here in the hilltowns.  Hoping for more than 10:1 if it stays cold enough

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

does the RGEM have this bias 

well they're all getting ( or should be getting) a real dose of what's arriving off the Pacific - the mechanics are finally actually just over land as of the 12z initialization.

How they individually handle the ingest ( physically ) is a discussion with the modelers at NCEP ... actually "Environment Canada" in this case

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Congrats on your paster finally .. Hoping you get a solid foot of wet snow and lose power for 7 days

It’s been a long time coming. I’m hoping the local grid goes down . And whatever the paste doesn’t finish off, the screamer gusting to 70 will next week .

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna be a violent night of crime considering they have no police dept there.

Other than the  police barracks in town with 50 troopers 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, MuddyWx said:

solid with the kraftian finish

This can't be right....strong consensus for  NE MA bullseye.....I'm frightened.

[MuddyWx]

Canadian is a bit tamer than 0z / reggie brother

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This can't be right....strong consensus for  NE MA bullseye.....I'm frightened.

Just need me to stay rain and you get the biggest gift of all. Congrats.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Just need me to stay rain and you get the biggest gift of all. Congrats.

Fingers crossed....man, I long for that lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like the GEM is more SE NH, but getting some consensus.

[PWMan]

15 minutes ago, tunafish said:

I will say, there's an OES signal that's been showing up for us down through PSM that get's going 00z Sunday that drops an inch or two before the main event.  That'll help.

Yeah, those have padded our numbers in the past. Always hard to pin down.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This can't be right....strong consensus for  NE MA bullseye.....I'm frightened.

heh.. I gather the sardonic humor but just the same -

It's a flat wave that possibly becomes a rapid deepener upon exit, with a CCB genesis transporting fresh ( not rotted) maritime polar air back west.   That synoptic circumstance sort of puts your area ( #MeToo btw - ) in the running for winner.

It's like you're in the top 3 seeds heading into a playoff.  

Let's just hope it's not like the President's Trophy curse in the NHL      lol

[CoastalWx]

Jack fetish is back for Ray.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1743292700894400827?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[WinterWolf]

Nothing wrong with the GFS here…we take. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Jack fetish is back for Ray.

Can’t wait for him to melt over getting 11” when I put up a 14 spot. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Jack fetish is back for Ray.

Expect a hard jog back south after these posts 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Jack fetish is back for Ray.

I don't expect it...just commenting on what I see. It will probably be somewhere with elevation, anyway.

[CoastalWx]

Fisher loves the warmest model. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Can’t wait for him to melt over getting 11” when I put up a 14 spot. 

Your area down to scooter would kind of piss me off.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Fisher loves the warmest model. 

Its like Bluewave with a suite and tie

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fisher loves the warmest model. 

It’s not like anything is egregiously warm. It wouldn’t take much.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1743292700894400827?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Matt Noyes mentioned the same thing this morning..

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

So it appears that last piece of energy should be fully onshore by tonight. Guess if we will get any positive changes it would be at 00z

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

So it appears that last piece of energy should be fully onshore by tonight. Guess if we will get any positive changes it would be at 00z

it's onshore now

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1743292700894400827?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Almost like he doesn't realize that those models "smooth" that gradient out due to insufficient resolution.

[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS a significant jump up from 6z

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

it's onshore now

Shit 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jack fetish is back for Ray.

Never understood this, I could care less about a Jack.