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Monitoring first regional significant winter impact event. Magnitude likely tempered. At this time NE PA/SE NY and SNE primarily. Jan 7/8.


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Two notable trends here: notably less confluence over Atlantic Canada and a less amplified western US trough. 

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Definitely notable on the confluence. Probably helped drive that s/w north. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Any weaker though and folks need to prepare for warmer solutions. 

 

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

exactly!

I still lean toward us producing nicely with this one. We probably continue ticking north before the usual last minute shuffle. It’s in a sweet spot for now. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely notable on the confluence. Probably helped drive that s/w north. 

Agreed and at a certain point we have to be careful what we wish for. Unless there's a windshield wiper back, I think it's totally plausible for this to keep moving north and west to the point where perhaps BOS, PVD, and HFD are in danger of mixing. Curious to see what the ensembles and the Euro suite show, but I've been more concerned about an inland runner vs. suppression. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely notable on the confluence. Probably helped drive that s/w north. 

With the western trough weaker it seems to me this may want move a bit flatter so you want that confluence out of the way , so it can gain latitude early  and slide E/ENE

people mentioned a trailing SW also helping, how is that 

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