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Two Mdt to high impact events NYC subforum; wknd Jan 6-7 Incl OBS, and mid week Jan 9-10 (incl OBS). Total water equiv by 00z/11 general 2", possibly 6" includes snow-ice mainly interior. RVR flood potential increases Jan 10 and beyond. Damaging wind.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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justinj

justinj

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, PuraVida said:

Text from PSEG…I wonder who they are talking to to get this info.

FYI…I’m in Suffolk county


PSEGLI: Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 75 mph possible Tuesday into Wednesday. We're ready. Report an outage: reply OUT or use our free app: bit.ly/PSEGLIapp


.

Got the same text. Gusts 40-50 seem more realistic with maybe a gust to 60

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MJO812
MJO812

Henry Marguisity  

BxEngine
BxEngine

Can we take the psycho analysis and the fake pessimism and the fake optimism somewhere else and stick to the weather? Holy hell this is impossible to read. 

Stormlover74
Stormlover74

You heard keno lock up the thread close up shop

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I saw some vehicles today with snow on them I knew they came from the north shore lol 

There are some patches of snow left on shaded lawns. There was maybe close to an inch here. If there’s a lot of snow on the car it came from north of the city. 

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justinj

justinj

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I saw some vehicles today with snow on them I knew they came from the north shore lol 

I had close to 1.5” in middle island. Didn’t have much melting on the grass today either 

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guinness77

guinness77

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, PuraVida said:

Text from PSEG…I wonder who they are talking to to get this info.

FYI…I’m in Suffolk county


PSEGLI: Heavy rain and wind gusts up to 75 mph possible Tuesday into Wednesday. We're ready. Report an outage: reply OUT or use our free app: bit.ly/PSEGLIapp


.

lol, yep. Got the same exact txt. Saw 75mph and was like wtf 

Could go to Mt. Washington…100-110 sustained with 140mph gusts on Wednesday night. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, wdrag said:

Hi... you saw my last post of how guidance is posted to answer your questions-impressions.  

Here's the MARFC answer on D4-9. Please accept this. 

 

I hope I've closed the loop on all your concerns. If not, please let me know.  Thanks. 

----

Walt, 

 
The nine day forecast slider is the default and we can't change it. We will still be issuing our usual 3 day forecasts and there are no current plans to change that.

 

 

Thanks, but not a very satisfying answer they gave you.  At the very least, they could state that it's a 3-day forecast.  Will be curious to see if I get any different answer, but that's unlikely as I have no influence.  

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted 
The reasoning behind the high wind warning and wind advisory. The
main key feature is a low level jet maximum of near 100 kt that
develops this evening at a height of around 4-8 kft. Model sounding
BUFKIT profiles do not depict a strong inversion, as the thermal
profiles appear to be close to isothermal. Winds just 1-2kft above
the surface are shown to reach 50-60 kt across the coastal areas and
with the heavy rain and aforementioned thermal profiles, much of
this should get mixed down to the surface through downward momentum
transport. The timeframe for this generally after 02Z Wednesday and
before 09Z Wednesday for Western Long Island and New Haven CT west.
The timeframe for this to the east generally after 03Z Wednesday and
before 10Z Wednesday.

Also, coinciding with this timeframe will be tremendous increase
vertically with omega and the total southerly flow extending
throughout the troposphere will increase the PWATS to well above
90th percentile climatology values. Models still conveying PWAT
values near 1.4 inches maximum overnight into the coastal parts
of the region.
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wdrag

wdrag

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Posted
7 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks, but not a very satisfying answer they gave you.  At the very least, they could state that it's a 3-day forecast.  Will be curious to see if I get any different answer, but that's unlikely as I have no influence.  

Sighhhh.... please-please understand that the NWS is a standardized government operation (one voice) with national control and very little local office options to reconfigure baseline products to local improvements.  In my opinion, we would be lost on flooding at river forecast points without the already the D1-3 forecasts and the ensemble products. Pick your battles. In my opinion, we live well with what we have. 

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wdrag

wdrag

Posted
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One step at a time for this storm:  Note--- ridges in Sussex County NJ and the Poconos-Litchfield Hills will see a small accumulation of snow during midday.  Next the winds: I've looked at minimum wind gusts in the SPC HREF Fire menu. It's 55+ iz expanding as it is the HRRRX. Southern and coastal NJ/Delmarva up to near NYS-LI will see 50-65 MPH will gusts here and there tonight.  The flooding depends on the bands of 2-4". I see it best in northeast PA and then I95 and am hoping Sussex County in nw NJ gets out of here with only 1-1.5". Snow clogged gutters will spawn leaks I think where 2"+ occurs. Where the 3-4" occurs, I think cellars will be tested.  The temps in the 50s will be only 6 hours before back down into the upper 30s-40s by sunrise.  My guess is I84 northward will hold the water for a slower release the next several days with snow remaining at 2" or higher. My guess is Sussex County might still have 1" left tomorrow morning... I'm hoping for that. I dont want to deal with rapid release flooding tomorrow morning, 

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, nycsnow said: 
The reasoning behind the high wind warning and wind advisory. The
main key feature is a low level jet maximum of near 100 kt that
develops this evening at a height of around 4-8 kft. Model sounding
BUFKIT profiles do not depict a strong inversion, as the thermal
profiles appear to be close to isothermal. Winds just 1-2kft above
the surface are shown to reach 50-60 kt across the coastal areas and
with the heavy rain and aforementioned thermal profiles, much of
this should get mixed down to the surface through downward momentum
transport. The timeframe for this generally after 02Z Wednesday and
before 09Z Wednesday for Western Long Island and New Haven CT west.
The timeframe for this to the east generally after 03Z Wednesday and
before 10Z Wednesday.

Also, coinciding with this timeframe will be tremendous increase
vertically with omega and the total southerly flow extending
throughout the troposphere will increase the PWATS to well above
90th percentile climatology values. Models still conveying PWAT
values near 1.4 inches maximum overnight into the coastal parts
of the region.

1.4” pwat in January is nuts. Someone’s going to be dealing with real deal river flooding where snow melt is also an issue.

also, for the coast another huge fetch building monster seas by east coast standards. More beach erosion and wash overs likely. The last storm made 8 foot cliffs at lido beach, expecting that to get worse. 

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nycsnow

nycsnow

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

1.4” pwat in January is nuts. Someone’s going to be dealing with real deal river flooding where snow melt is also an issue.

also, for the coast another huge fetch building monster seas by east coast standards. More beach erosion and wash overs likely. The last storm made 8 foot cliffs at lido beach, expecting that to get worse. 

Similar swells as well 15-20 feet and I believe there was no astronomical high tide for last storm but this one there is 

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Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

1.4” pwat in January is nuts. Someone’s going to be dealing with real deal river flooding where snow melt is also an issue.

also, for the coast another huge fetch building monster seas by east coast standards. More beach erosion and wash overs likely. The last storm made 8 foot cliffs at lido beach, expecting that to get worse. 

I know someone that works for the dredging company doing fire island that said last weekends storm washed away 25% of the beach their working on.

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LongBeachSurfFreak

LongBeachSurfFreak

Posted
Posted
Just now, nycsnow said:

Similar swells as well 15-20 feet and I believe there was no astronomical high tide for last storm but this one there is 

Exactly, I actually banged out of work for the event to shoot some video of the largest seas since sandy. Unfortunately the sea spray was so bad visibility was near zero, so all I got was the roar and the shore break. But the erosion was incredible. Waves smashing off the dunes. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Point and click for Long Beach is up to 70 mph gusts. Wow. Anyway if there’s no inversion tonight there could be serious wind since that LLJ really gets going off the NJ coast. Again we’re lucky the worst winds seem to be during low tide. But the wash overs/beach erosion will be quite severe unfortunately. 70 mph winds definitely will cause a lot of tree/power issues. 50-55 mph is tolerable, 70 another story. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Central PA getting crushed this morning. May be a few inches before they change over. 

Wow-oranges over State College now and webcams/CC show it’s all snow. Must be piling up in a big hurry. Shame it will be changing to rain pretty soon. 

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