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January 2024


wdrag
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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Hi Walt. Just a question. Why do you lean on the Canadian so much? Doesn’t it have the lowest verification scores of all the main globals?

I haven't checked but its verification last year was #2.

Also, its' steadfast performance on the previous big inland event and the current one. It's a winter very good snow model. 

 

We must disagree.  Most folks dont pay attention to the CMC... so they dont really know.

It';s how you use these models.  I'd say EC and GFS are a little shaky this coming event,   

Differing input? Go for it.

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33 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Just moderate here and didn't stick to anything. I guess the heaviest missed me just a few miles to the south. Glad you got to see a nice squall. 

Snowing nicely here, not really hard, but it's nice to see it snowing and it's blowing around with the high winds and the temp is now 36

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11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I haven't checked but its verification last year was #2.

Also, its' steadfast performance on the previous big inland event and the current one. It's a winter very good snow model. 

 

We must disagree.  Most folks dont pay attention to the CMC... so they dont really know.

It';s how you use these models.  I'd say EC and GFS are a little shaky this coming event,   

Differing input? Go for it.

The CMC has had quite a few big victories with winter storm threats in the last few years. I trust it a lot more than GFS, that's for sure. 

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Hi!  I'll set up hopefully a carefully worded snow thread for Friday (late Thu-early Sat).  Enough modeling has a cdefinite period of snow,  or a moderate snow storm,  take your pick.  I'll check the ensembles this evening.  I think we can wait on this a bit longer til this evening,  before  getting ahead of ourselves especially since ensembles are as of yet not more than 2".  

I kind of like a reasonable chance of getting snow accum in NYC and/or a 6+  just west of I95 for our I84 Pics/nw Nj slot before getting the thread going. 

Thanks for your patience.

 

Walt

 

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5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I can ask for the nam to stop giving me sleet

Mid level warming.  EC doesn't have it. RGEM does.  I think we need to pay attention to RGEM-NAM blend.  EC and GFS flagged a significant event when the Tue thread was started then disappeared only to slowly return.

 

The global models (EC-GFS) probably handle closed lows situations better then general WAA overrunning.  Someone with knowledge of the models are welcome to check me on this.  

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2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Meh is a massive upgrade from what we've had the last few years. It's all about perspective.

I'd rather have 20s and two light snow events than single digits and dry anyway (I know the second event of the week may not even be that light or happen at all) but saying hypothetically if it panned out as modeled this would be an ideal winter week imo.

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5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Could be wrong but I think in this case RGEM/NAM are too amped and still out of their best range for Tuesdays storm (RGEM is always warm biased and NAM has been a terrible model for a while). I think this is almost all snow for everyone maybe lower ratios or a bit of sleet mixed in on the immediate coast.  

They very well could be amped and I don't  usually worry about the icon or rgem being too warm. The nam can often suck but is useful at finding that warm layer is all I'm saying

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They very well could be amped and I don't  usually worry about the icon or rgem being too warm. The nam can often suck but is useful at finding that warm layer is all I'm saying

Right but in this particular case what would be driving a warm layer unless it's amped and close to the coast? If the low is well offshore and not that strong I don't see why there would be a warm layer. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

What was the followup storm to January 2016, Chris? Was that the storm we had a few inches of snow but it could have been a lot more (the storm was just east of us.)  Or was that in February? The storm where the crane fell in NYC?

 


https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm02052016

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
535 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016


 

BETHPAGE              11.5   110 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   NORTH BELLMORE        11.3  1249 PM  2/05  SOCIAL MEDIA
   EAST HILLS            11.0  1230 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   PLAINVIEW             10.5   110 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   LEVITTOWN             10.2  1131 AM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH MERRICK         10.0   200 PM  2/05  PUBLIC

 

TERRYVILLE            12.0   248 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   SETAUKET              12.0   100 PM  2/05  NWS EMPLOYEE
   SAINT JAMES           11.9   110 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   FARMINGVILLE          11.2   130 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SELDEN                11.0   145 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTH HUNTINGTON      11.0  1130 AM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
   PORT JEFFERSON        11.0   215 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   YAPHANK               11.0   315 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   HAUPPAUGE             10.5   130 PM  2/05  NWS EMPLOYEE
   MILLER PLACE          10.5   130 PM  2/05  PUBLIC
   HOLTSVILLE            10.0   300 PM  2/05  AMATEUR RADIO
   HUNTINGTON            10.0   130 PM  2/05  TRAINED SPOTTER
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