michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 hours ago, zinski1990 said: Indys luck sucks too. 1978 last really big one. I think the biggest storm ever was over 16 inches in like 1910 or something lol. Southern Indiana even had a historic storm with the Pre Christmas 2004 Storm where some places got 24-30" plus 1978 for the conditions alone is rightfully a storm of lore, but total snowfall in Detroit was definitely a screw hole during that storm with around 9" from the storm and a snow depth of 15" following the storm. Obviously at face value thats great, but considering what happened all around us I actually get annoyed that thats the "go to" storm to talk about. A storm just over 3 years earlier in 1974 dropped 19.3" of heart attack wet snow and does not get nearly its due compared to '78. And of course, as I mentioned just above, Detroit just saw 16.7" GHDII setting the stage for historic cold in Feb 2015. That of course was the winter after the record season snowfall snowfall of 94.9" when snowdepth locally obliterated 1978. Back OT, whatever does happen Friday and Saturday, frigid cold is lurking right behind it. So this really could be an old fashioned winter blast if all goes well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Curious if these NW trends are a result of a classic set up of cold(with the PV position) and that it's foreshadowing the rest of the Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I think the 12z gfs is gonna look about as sexy as a storm can look for metro Detroit, 985 low intensifying in central Tennessee. The fact its intensifying so much, means its less likely to transfer to the coast, which we see so many times in this scenario/setup that limits a big dog. You got the front end, the main show, all snow. Pretty rare around these parts. 20-30 inch stripe. Perfect track with a little wiggle room for a NW adjustment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The GFS is sliding the entire trough farther east, so the big storm can't cut until farther east. This morning's ICON and GDPS hold the trough farther west, so the storm cuts to Chicago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I think the 12z gfs is gonna look about as sexy as a storm can look for metro Detroit, 985 low intensifying in central Tennessee. The fact its intensifying so much, means its less likely to transfer to the coast, which we see so many times in this scenario/setup that limits a big dog. You got the front end, the main show, all snow. Pretty rare around these parts. 20-30 inch stripe. Perfect track with a little wiggle room for a NW adjustment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12Z GEM takes the low through Chicago with a nice spread the wealth scenario for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 unfortunately this is where we were with this Tuesday's storm and look how that turned out for Southern Michigan. Wait till Thursday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Frog Town said: unfortunately this is where we were with this Tuesday's storm and look how that turned out for Southern Michigan. Wait till Thursday night. Thankfully no matter what this storm will have more wiggle room with a colder air mass to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z UK is back to a big hit farther northwest, like the ICON and GDPS. So far this morning the GFS is on its own with a southeast slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Not bad consistency for a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 45 minutes ago, Frog Town said: unfortunately this is where we were with this Tuesday's storm and look how that turned out for Southern Michigan. Wait till Thursday night. This midweek storm was going nw of Detroit for almost the whole time, especially on the euro. It definitly schooled the gfs on this one so far. The fact next weekends storm is SE on the euro is a good sign. Still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 46 minutes ago, Frog Town said: unfortunately this is where we were with this Tuesday's storm and look how that turned out for Southern Michigan. Wait till Thursday night. I could not agree more about waiting til Thursday. Im always like that with any event. However I do disagree about Tuesdays storm. Outside of a rogue run or 2 this was always going to be a quick snow to rain scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Other items of interest about Friday/Saturdays storm. Its a different setup than Tuesday in that there's a ton of cold air lurking, unlike tuesday. But more interesting is that regardless of the low track, models seem to want to throw a lot of snow well to the east of the L, channeling blizzard of '99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Sheesh. The US-24 special here. This solution occurs, I’m stuck in my house for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Other items of interest about Friday/Saturdays storm. Its a different setup than Tuesday in that there's a ton of cold air lurking, unlike tuesday. But more interesting is that regardless of the low track, models seem to want to throw a lot of snow well to the east of the L, channeling blizzard of '99 Yea thats definitly rare to see, but still wanna be nw of the low. It's all gonna come down to where the baroclinic zone and the block/confluence sets up. Everything has to line up for us so we'll see if we can get lucky and get a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z runs have been pretty stout thus far and the Euro is coming in shallower with the lead wave on Wed/Thurs. Seems to have better wave spacing between the two as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, andyhb said: 12z runs have been pretty stout thus far and the Euro is coming in shallower with the lead wave on Wed/Thurs. Seems to have better wave spacing between the two as well. Yea I noticed the canadian was stronger with that clipper in between. The weaker that clipper is, the more nw the storm may go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro is high end across a wide swath of the region with the multiple systems through Saturday 1/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Also has a really bizarre (relative to other guidance especially) evolution of the weekend system. Super far NW and a much more anemic looking cold sector. Still gets into the mid 970s however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 …Euro is instead super dry, a bit too “slider-esque” still and too broad with the main shortwave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 That was one of the more interesting Euro runs. Somehow I still get like a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 20 minutes ago, andyhb said: …Euro is instead super dry, a bit too “slider-esque” still and too broad with the main shortwave. Euro is just some big time garbage at this point. If this was a new model that came out right now it would be given the ICON treatment and not get used. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Now this is quite the ensemble mean. More than half the members in the low 970s/960s. EDIT: Think that's the first time I've seen such a deep mean at this range. If there was any doubt that there was big league potential with this one 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 55 minutes ago, Stebo said: Euro is just some big time garbage at this point. If this was a new model that came out right now it would be given the ICON treatment and not get used. It actually is incredible how far the euro has fallen from its King status years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It actually is incredible how far the euro has fallen from its King status years ago. It was pretty spot on, 5-6 days out with the midweek storm, better than all the other models. But yeah definitly not as good as it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 55 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It was pretty spot on, 5-6 days out with the midweek storm, better than all the other models. But yeah definitly not as good as it once was. Yeah I was referring in general, not to any one specific storm. We will see if it locks in on a solution for Fri/Sat in the next few days or if it continues its huge shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Ride the ENS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 **edit** just saw we pulled the trigger on a thread. I like it. Obviously would be tits if we got back to back 6+' storms (in my neck of the woods) but long ways to go yet on the weekend system. Lot of spread on the GFS ENS. Don't mind the EPS look at this point. Also, lots of talk about how the ECMWF has been shit as of late but does anyone have verification stats to back that up (I'm too lazy to look)? Seems like it was pretty consistent at range with the early week system vs the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 22 minutes ago, Nelson said: **edit** just saw we pulled the trigger on a thread. I like it. Obviously would be tits if we got back to back 6+' storms (in my neck of the woods) but long ways to go yet on the weekend system. Lot of spread on the GFS ENS. Don't mind the EPS look at this point. Also, lots of talk about how the ECMWF has been shit as of late but does anyone have verification stats to back that up (I'm too lazy to look)? Seems like it was pretty consistent at range with the early week system vs the GFS. I can only speak for myself, I haven't seen too much trash talking the Euro other than stebos comment and my response. Basically, years ago the Euro used to be the far superior model and recently it seems to not be. Not that it's extra bad or anything, but it's not that juggernaut it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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