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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted

Augusta Phil said NADA, foolishness. 

He left me hanging with the GFS op and the GEFS.

When in drought, leave it out is well known with professionals.

But, throwing that aside, I cannot find supporting temperatures with any model except the op GFS. That is NONSENSE!  We are so starved for snow that we are grasping for straws.............................

The 18Z GFS has warmed and reduced snow potential.  It is left hanging with no support.

I see scattered snow - showers Tue/Wed with any accumulation mostly confined to western highlands above 1800 ft.................................. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The flow is chaotic as hell. Good opportunity for you to sharpen your skills on upper level analysis instead of focusing on the pretty digital blue colors(or lack there of) at the surface.

And if your upper level skill isn't quite there...just unplug until Monday, lol Chaotic flows, chaotic runs, and even less certainty outside of a couple days.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
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Posted

One of the potential wild cards this winter was the very high stratospheric water vapor from the Hunga Tonga eruption. Water vapor strongly emits thermal IR radiation, which serves to cool the atmosphere in the winter stratosphere where little or no sunlight  reaches. So potentially, that could lead to a colder and stronger strat winter polar vortex, that if coupled with the troposphere, would encourage +AO. Obviously it’s early, but the strat vortex is going to be quite weak most likely at least well into December and potentially beyond. 

 

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TSSN+

TSSN+

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Ji said:


It’s always on to the next run!


I got a million model runs to get it (uh-huh, geah)
Choose one (choose one, hey)
Ay, bring it back, bring it back (uh-huh)
Now double your snow and make it stack
I'm on to the next one, on to the next one
I'm on to the next one, on to the next one
I'm on to the next one, on to the next one
I'm on to the next one, on to the next one
(Hold up) Freeze! Ay!
Somebody bring me back the 12z please, hey

 

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted

Fwiw..... gfs for central Maryland  for the 6th....  and sterling  discusses it. They are going to monitor it for now....

 

trailing trough looks to dive across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys Tuesday night, then move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday. The placement of this trough, as well as ridging upstream over the Rockies (with an axis through Idaho) and downstream ridging near Greenland would favor unsettled weather locally. However, the favorable ridge/trough/ridge configuration is transient, lasting only 6-12 hours, so things would have to come together just right for a more impactful storm east of the mountains. There may be enough cold air in place for wintry precipitation types, however, so this period will require close monitoring.

prec.png

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I got a million model runs to get it (uh-huh, geah)
Choose one (choose one, hey)
Ay, bring it back, bring it back (uh-huh)
Now double your snow and make it stack
I'm on to the next one, on to the next one
I'm on to the next one, on to the next one
I'm on to the next one, on to the next one
I'm on to the next one, on to the next one
(Hold up) Freeze! Ay!
Somebody bring me back the 12z please, hey

 

Hey buddy that's my job! Read my avatar--I'M the Maestro and control all musical content here. Now get in line or get out of my studio!!! :P:lol:

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted

Damn it! I missed happy hour earlier in here. How’s our 1” flizzard looking for PSU next week? Honestly that’s all that matters right? Winter depends on it!! Well that AND the state of the SBFI index (Scraff Beer Fridge Index). I’ve heard the more beer in the fridge = more snow and Jebwalks.IMG_8309.thumb.jpeg.7478a1f61ccfbd5261caf2c52823f710.jpegI dunno. Seems legit. Don’t judge. I’m gonna roll wit dat shit. LOL  :drunk:

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
Fwiw..... gfs for central Maryland  for the 6th....  and sterling  discusses it. They are going to monitor it for now....
 
trailing trough looks to dive across the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys Tuesday night, then move offshore of the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday. The placement of this trough, as well as ridging upstream over the Rockies (with an axis through Idaho) and downstream ridging near Greenland would favor unsettled weather locally. However, the favorable ridge/trough/ridge configuration is transient, lasting only 6-12 hours, so things would have to come together just right for a more impactful storm east of the mountains. There may be enough cold air in place for wintry precipitation types, however, so this period will require close monitoring.
prec.thumb.png.b9b2f6d767544228861aaf92e0162c9a.png

It still seems like we’re in a pseudo/residual La Niña until the actual El Niño effects ramp up.
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Dendrimer77

Dendrimer77

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Damn it! I missed happy hour earlier in here. How’s our 1” flizzard looking for PSU next week? Honestly that’s all that matters right? Winter depends on it!! Well that AND the state of the SBFI index (Scraff Beer Fridge Index). I’ve heard the more beer in the fridge = more snow and Jebwalks.IMG_8309.thumb.jpeg.7478a1f61ccfbd5261caf2c52823f710.jpegI dunno. Seems legit. Don’t judge. I’m gonna roll wit dat shit. LOL  :drunk:

Yes, I've missed your beer fridge shots!! I salivate every time 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Before everyone falls off the cliff over the latest Can. Seasonal, I thought it interesting that its latest weekly is different even for December.  So I am tossing it. (WB)

 

Not sure why anyone would care too much about a seasonal tool at this point. Winter is here. We have better options for guidance at least in to Jan. Maybe beyond that you give it some consideration. Having said all that, what's wrong with it? The general h5 depiction for Feb and March look especially good. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Not sure why anyone would care too much about a seasonal tool at this point. Winter is here. We have better options for guidance at least in to Jan. Maybe beyond that you give it some consideration. Having said all that, what's wrong with it? The general h5 depiction for Feb and March look especially good. 
Especially a seasonal tool for the current month

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Not sure why anyone would care too much about a seasonal tool at this point. Winter is here. We have better options for guidance at least in to Jan. Maybe beyond that you give it some consideration. Having said all that, what's wrong with it? The general h5 depiction for Feb and March look especially good. 

Because trolling?

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