December 2023

[Roger Smith]

Speaking of 1888, apparently NYC residents of the time got weather forecasts in the daily papers, sent by telegraph from DC, but the blizzard brought down the wires in between DC and NY, and the forecast didn't arrive on the morning of the storm. All they knew was a rain changing to snow event was due in, as per the previous forecast, but no word on severity, which was actually in the forecast never received. This could be why by 1895 the weather bureau opened a forecast office in New York. 

[donsutherland1]

Winter's two-day visit complete with several bouts of snow flurries and even snow showers is over. Temperatures will begin to rebound on tomorrow with temperatures reaching the middle and upper 40s in much of the region.

A very mild weekend will follow. However, a significant rainfall is likely Sunday into Monday. Strong southeasterly winds gusting past 40 mph will impact the region as the strengthening storm passes to the north and west of the region. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely. Thunderstorms are possible as the cold front pushes across the region late Sunday or early Monday. The temperature will likely reach or exceed 60° in many locations on Sunday.

Overall, the first 10 days of December remain on track to finish with a solidly warmer than normal anomaly.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.0°C for the week centered around November 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen somewhat further this month.  

The SOI was -2.02 on December 6.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.301 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January.

On December 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.491 (RMM). The December 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.551 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.4° (1.3° above normal).

 

[wdrag]

2 hours ago, uofmiami said:

 

Not starting a thread for this yet... however, per GFS/EC --am pretty sure scattered wind gusts 10 Mph higher than what I see here for LI-CT (55-60).  Primary reason for no thread is that affected population (mainly e LI/CT River eastward)  and max gusts look a little southeast of I95.

I did see the 18z NAM and EC are slowing a little. This I think is a good sign for more action but will reconfirm (or not) Friday morning 630AM.  I see by the time 850 Jet develops to e LI, speed is up to 85 knots.  That's a good sign despite neutral lapse rate. 

This weenie is satisfied with two days of spotty measurable snow in the NYC subforum higher elevations.  

[NittanyWx]

4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Also when did it become necessary for us to have extreme arctic cold for snow? Usually when we are putting up significant cold anomalies here it is very dry air. 

 

When I'm talking about source region, I'm not talking about extreme arctic air.  One of the challenges with airmasses from the north and west is that these airmasses can weaken over time when there isn't sufficient snow-cover.

 

Looking at snow-cover anomalies and the Chinook showing up in the extended range...I'm struggling to find the snowpack build right now and a material change in that scenario. So that means any Continental polar airmass loses punch as it advects southeastward.

 

A +PNA with no snowcover and cP airmass that doesn't have much of a cold punch to begin with weakens chances for snow.

 

So what I'm looking for, and why I keep harping on the need for source, is to mitigate the risk of an empty trough and no real source for cold to accompany any coastal storm if and when El Nino forcing become a dominant driver again in the mid-lats and the seasonal +PNA trend re-establishes. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Yup, you would think it's been tropical from the talk. It's been an average December up here in MHV. Yesterday's high was 37 with snow showers. Last night went down to 22 and today's high was 35. After a mild weekend most of next week will be close to 40 for daytime highs. Not planting any palm trees here. 

It's been pretty damn cold on the water, I'll tell ya that....OTOH there are still bluefish and porgies being caught inshore while people are chasing the migrating striped bass. Bluefish are not cold water fish; they should be gone by now ( we are glad to see them making a comeback ). We think this weekend storm will push everything out; it will be a "pattern changer" for fisheries. The warmer climate has pretty much ended our winter fisheries, which once featured huge whiting ( "frost fish " ) runs through mid winter; we still see some cod offshore but not like the old days; some is clearly from overfishing but some is also due to warmer temps.

[donsutherland1]

Distribution of New York City's daily snowfall amounts by ENSO Phase and Month (1949-50 through 2022-23):

[North and West]

Saw this pop up, in case you nerds wanted an interesting signal.


.

[vegan_edible]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

You're 16?

i wish, i'm 28. saw 2001 and went from there. maybe i wouldnt want to experience 01/02

[Stormlover74]

Just now, vegan_edible said:

i wish, i'm 28. saw 2001 and went from there. maybe i wouldnt want to experience 01/02

Oh lol. No you don't want a repeat of 01-02. He was referring to Nemo in 2013

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Oh lol. No you don't want a repeat of 01-02. He was referring to Nemo in 2013

sounds like '22/'23 was the recent '01/'02 and i'm all set on that lmao

[MJO812]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/january-february-winter-forecast-cold-anomaly-snow-united-states-pattern-fa/

[lee59]

Very frosty tonight.

[Rjay]

14 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing is looking ugly for us moving forward.  Stop being a troll. 

Check out the Mid Atlantic Subforum . They are talking about the upcoming pattern near the holidays.  

I think I'm going to take a break from this subforum because alot of misinformation.

Good. Go.  You're ridiculous.  

 

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The biggest issue with the wxbell charts is that there is an abrupt color shift around around -8 which draws your eyes toward the colder departures. The +8 has a more subtle color shift which makes it look less warm.  Properly designed temperature departure charts which most other vendors and agencies use don’t have this issue around +8 and -8. I am hoping this was just a design flaw on Ryan’s part and not a conscious decision.

It's on purpose.  You know this. 

[brooklynwx99]

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

i wish, i'm 28. saw 2001 and went from there. maybe i wouldnt want to experience 01/02

Reading this I was thinking about how if from ages 5-25 I experienced roughly a dozen winters of 50" + snowfall, on Long Island no less, what my snowfall expectations would be like with that as a frame of reference.  It would be impossible for them not to be sky high.

 

[snowman19]

[wdrag]

Based on 00z ensembles and op cycles, not going with a thread. Nice rain storm with wind gusts 55-65 MPH e LI-coastal eastern New England. So power outages-damage drama, if any, restricted to a small part of the geography population for the NYC subforum.  

Backside CAA w-nw gusts probably NYC subforum widespread 40-45 MPH Monday after sunrise. 

I see the continuing slower-colder-bolder 06z/8 NAM but not quite buying into it, however It does highlight for me, the potential for as much power outages-tree damage in elevation related 4-8" snowfall swath expanding new from a small segment of ne PA to the Adirondacks Monday morning as compared to e LI-coastal New England power outage gusts. Added the 00z/8 EPS snow depth change. Blend of Models is similar.  

Not the worst storm we'll see this winter but worthy of monitoring for travel etc. 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, Rjay said:

Good. Go.  You're ridiculous.  

 

It's on purpose.  You know this. 

Yeah, I pretty much figured this out. His charts are the only ones in the industry that have the bold color change at the -8 temperature departure from blue to green while maintaining a more subtle orange to darker orange color change +8. This directs your eye to the colder side making the colder departures seem more substantial. 

[snowman19]

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, Rjay said:

Good. Go.  You're ridiculous.  

 

It's on purpose.  You know this. 

Actually I'm not but keep bashing me when I'm actually posting the truth.  This sub forum is ridiculous at times. 

I guess Bluewave and Allsnow are always right.

 

 

[MJO812]

Latest gefs 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Latest gefs 

What are you trying to dispute with these maps? 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What are you trying to dispute with these maps? 

Because one is hi res and the other one isn't.  Have fun talking about the warmth on here. 

I will be back once the sanity returns .

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because one is hi res and the other one isn't.  I can also do that if I want. 

I guess my question is what’s the point? A 5 day period that avg near normal for your location…

[Allsnow]

Anywho…close the shade for a while on cold/snow in our location. Hopefully Sunday is interesting with the wind. Looks like another sloppy jets game 

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

That big +EPO showing up for mid to late December will probably result in numerous stations across the Northern US experiencing yet another top 10 warmest December added to the warm start to the month. The departures especially around International falls may creep close to double digits. 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

All the talk of 1888 made me research, what a temp roller coaster ride for that storm!!

[Allsnow]

Just now, bluewave said:

That massive +EPO showing up for mid to late December will probably result in numerous stations across the Northern US experiencing yet another top 10 warmest December added to the warm stat to the month. The departures especially around International falls may creep close to double digits. 

 

 

The cold continues to be on the other side of the globe. The majority of the U.S. is voided of any snow potential. I guess we shall see what happens in January if the Aleutian low can form. Even if it does, it will take a while to flush this pac airmass out 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That massive +EPO showing up for mid to late December will probably result in numerous stations across the Northern US experiencing yet another top 10 warmest December added to the warm stat to the month. The departures especially around International falls may creep close to double digits. 

 

 

That signal for a raging, extended PAC jet come late December is crazy

[EastonSN+]

This was February 1888