Go Kart Mozart Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: What happened to all the weird lows forming and energy hanging back, and all the weird evolutions yesterday on the GFS? Models can’t seem to hang on to any one solution for more than one run it seems…??? I still see all sorts of lobes swinging around the gyre, after the rainer. This isn't over. Nothing's over! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I'm hedging the mid atlantic may see snow before up here with that look heading into Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I still see all sorts of lobes swinging around the gyre, after the rainer. This isn't over. Nothing's over! It’s over Johnny! You just don’t turn it off!! Nothing is over. lmao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm hedging the mid atlantic may see snow before up here with that look heading into Jan. That would be irritating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That would be irritating. It’s possible for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That would be irritating. 09-10 was thrown around quite a bit the past few months, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened, It looks to get pretty cold for a couple weeks in Jan, As long as the core is not overhead and remains further west we have some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Canadian at 00z was a tame version of the 12z run yesterday, but not sure I buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s possible for sure. Oh I get it. Just hope whatever comes along..we can play too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 09-10 was thrown around quite a bit the past few months, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened, It looks to get pretty cold for a couple weeks in Jan, As long as the core is not overhead and remains further west we have some chances. Let’s hope it’s not that extreme…that was a shutout with 3-4 blizzards to our south. Please, anything but that. If we get boned, I at least want to be in the game, not sitting on the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 This is insane for the time of year and storm track, madness again. One of the worst Decembers ever. Also this storm track and outcome hasn’t changed on the OPs from 300+ hours out 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 51 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s actually not cold at all for the New England forum. Cold anomalies are south. Actually still a bit above normal until the last few weenie days of the run. Weird bc it looks cold at first glance. EPS was pretty darned cold for us. Def colder than OP GFS. Regardless, whenever you see cold anomalies just to our south in that NYC-DCA corridor, that usually means we’re plenty cold enough to snow even if we are near avg or slightly above like on that 06z GFS run. Sitting in that -5 to -8C range of 850 temps. Hopefully we can actually get one of the shortwaves to pop a nice system for us. The really active look is something I like a lot…it will make model watching relevant since any one of them could show up as a storm all of the sudden when we get closer. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Let’s hope it’s not that extreme…that was a shutout with 3-4 blizzards to our south. Please, anything but that. If we get boned, I at least want to be in the game, not sitting on the sidelines. I'm hearing there's major trail damage and the season for some areas may be closed this year due to no funding, What that will do, Is place more pressure and congestion on the areas that will be open making it more dangerous once we finally get riding conditions, The states winter tourism is going to take a major blow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 until the 300+ hr op gfs prints out a bomb, the pattern change isn't happening 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS was pretty darned cold for us. Def colder than OP GFS. Regardless, whenever you see cold anomalies just to our south in that NYC-DCA corridor, that usually means we’re plenty cold enough to snow even if we are near avg or slightly above like on that 06z GFS run. Sitting in that -5 to -8C range of 850 temps. Hopefully we can actually get one of the shortwaves to pop a nice system for us. The really active look is something I like a lot…it will make model watching relevant since any one of them could show up as a storm all of the sudden when we get closer. Ya I’m not saying it’s not cold enough to snow, you’d just think it’s colder at first glance. It’s actually just a seasonable pattern until that real cold push towards the end of weenie range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 35 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm hedging the mid atlantic may see snow before up here with that look heading into Jan. There have been plenty of hints of that over the last few days. At this point, why not? We are approaching 2 years since our last appreciable snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: There have been plenty of hints of that over the last few days. At this point, why not? We are approaching 2 years since our last appreciable snow here Let’s see how things evolve…at some point the law of averages has to play in too. Between that and a decent active pattern..I think we get some chances. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I get weenied for Saying I think we’ll have some chances? Wow..some real beauties in here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian at 00z was a tame version of the 12z run yesterday, but not sure I buy it. heh ...yet it's the only model demoing any consistency with that whole fracas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 42 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm hearing there's major trail damage and the season for some areas may be closed this year due to no funding, What that will do, Is place more pressure and congestion on the areas that will be open making it more dangerous once we finally get riding conditions, The states winter tourism is going to take a major blow. The state threw some emergency funds at clubs that already got swept up, but looking at another pool of funding coming supposedly to fix washouts and bridges. We've checked half our system and so far so good, but the two bridges I'm most concerned about I'm looking at tomorrow. Hoping they're still there as one is close to 40 feet long 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Slow week with stove wood sales. Fire pit sales have been brisk however. A lot of people must be having Christmas cookouts. Who knows it might get chilly late in the day... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Warming up nicely! Really can't complain too much about the holiday weekend weather. Who wants to be shoveling? What are you going to do the rest of the day? Sit inside and drink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: Warming up nicely! Really can't complain too much about the holiday weekend weather. Who wants to be shoveling? What are you going to do the rest of the day? Sit inside and drink? Cleaning up my lawn today from the disaster from Monday. We burn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Mm... suspect the patience for hearing any of this is growing thinner with each passing week of having to wait but, that's a pretty cold signal - relative to latitude-based climatology, wise asses .. Formulating into a higher degree of meridian flow in the hemisphere look through the first week of January - on all three ensemble means. ( I'm only bothering to mention it because in this malaise of 'been there done that' hand throwing, I suspect a fairly high probability that people have stopped looking lol ) But, the above is showing up now in the numerical telecon projections, with an EPO mode flipping into negative after Dec 30 - it is likely the meridian flow type is now invading the EPO region enough that the EO functions are being numerically forced ( that oughta ache-up some heads nicely haha) I've been monitoring it and lower EPO index has been increasingly so (2nd derivative). Not only that, the distant GEF and GEPs West Pacific Oscillation projections have that index neutralizing, with most of the spread on the low side. What is interesting about both the EPO and WPO, these so-called "control runs" ( I assume by that they mean, 'call Kevin and ask him what he wants and then the initialize the models to force a sexier solution') are all below the trend line of these index forecast out in time. So ...whatever that's good for. I think the WPO is important as time relentlessly delivers us deeper into the next month (whether we want to or not...). -WPO sets the table for more MJO phase spaces that actually constructively interfere with the ENSO base. Sweet! For winter storm enthusiasts... you really want the AB Pacific circulation variant of the warm ENSO forcing. In simple terms ... that would be a meridian conveyor of colder air toward N/A mid latitudes, while the southern stream is moisture jacked. I know people want dates.. but I'm talking "deeper into January" because that's all that can be defined for now. We're not talking about a winter storm here. We're surmising pattern scaffolding. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I get weenied for Saying I think we’ll have some chances? Wow..some real beauties in here. Lot of triggered snowflakes in here the past 18+ months. Don’t worry, for some it’ll make them stronger…for others, they just wilt under the pressure of not getting KUs every year. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Cold and dry after next week heading into January.Mother nature blew her load on precip. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 Famous last words, (coming from me) The times are a changing. You's guys are going to get some snow with the turn of the year. Ensembles will get the goods percolating. Operational models will come around. Come back in week all will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: This is insane for the time of year and storm track, madness again. One of the worst Decembers ever. Also this storm track and outcome hasn’t changed on the OPs from 300+ hours out It's actually changed quite a bit... it just hasn't changed to snow IYBY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: This is insane for the time of year and storm track, madness again. One of the worst Decembers ever. Also this storm track and outcome hasn’t changed on the OPs from 300+ hours out Nothing's changed here. Keep on throwing out your scare tactics lol. It was always supposed to be rain next week. Oh and again, 300 plus hours out. Yeah, that's what's going to happen. Thanks for your insightful input as usual 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: It's actually changed quite a bit... it just hasn't changed to snow IYBY If IYBY is all of the Northeast and Atlantic Canada, agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 23, 2023 Share Posted December 23, 2023 I'm hearing there's major trail damage and the season for some areas may be closed this year due to no funding, What that will do, Is place more pressure and congestion on the areas that will be open making it more dangerous once we finally get riding conditions, The states winter tourism is going to take a major blow.Double edge sword. Snow would be nice to get the base down and build from there, but that's going to make it harder to fix the trails. No snow next 7-10days is somewhat of a blessing since the atvs can get in there easier. I donated some money and want to help some clubs but we're out of town tomorrow till Thurs. The hotspots like rangeley, Eustis, jackman and points north that didn't get much damage will be crowded for sure when we get snowSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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