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October 2023


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Flood Watch issued for parts of OKX:

okx.png.07dbde75229b40913effb471cc3102f8.png

Flood Watch
National Weather Service New York NY
312 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

CTZ005-009-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176>179-071000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0011.231007T0600Z-231008T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Eastern
Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
312 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding caused by
  excessive rainfall are possible, which could be locally
  significant.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, including the following
  areas, Northern Fairfield and Southern Fairfield. Portions of
  northeast New Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern
  Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson,
  Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union.
  Portions of southeast New York, including the following areas,
  Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Nassau,
  Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Orange, Putnam, Richmond
  (Staten Island), Rockland, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens and
  Southern Westchester.

* WHEN...From 2 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in local to scattered areas
  of flash flooding of poor drainage and urban areas. Flooding of
  rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone
  locations is also possible. Creeks and streams may rise out of
  their banks.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Widespread 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rainfall, with locally 3 to 4
    inches, are possible, especially where the axis of heavier
    rain develops, and possibly remains for an hour or two.
    Rainfall rates to 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible. If and
    where the heaviest rainfall rates develop the flooding could
    be locally significant, causing disruption to transportation,
    flooding of basements, first floor residences and businesses,
    and underground infrastructure, and pose an elevated threat
    to life.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
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Tomorrow will be rainy and still mild. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely. The New York City area and nearby suburbs will likely see 1.00"-3.00" of rain. Locally higher amounts in this area could approach or reach 5.00". Following the frontal passage, the coolest air mass so far this season will overspread the region.

Monday and Tuesday could see temperatures remain below 60° in parts of the region even as sunshine prevails. Temperatures will slowly warm afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around September 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -19.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.897 today.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  61degs.(55/67)or +1.

Reached 73 here yesterday at 2pm.

Today:  Decreasing T 68>58, wind ne., m. cloudy,  Rain 7am-7pm., 52 tomorrow AM.

Next weekend looking very questionable already---with multiple inches possible---but GFS not onboard.

68*(98%RH) here at 7am{all night actually)-Drizzle, some fog, 5mi.    68* at 9am.     69* at Noon.      63* at 2pm.     60* at 3pm.    63* at 4:30pm.      60* at 6pm.

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