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Hurricane Lee--Glorified Nor'Easter or Legit Tropical? Near Miss or Direct Hit?

WxWatcher007

By WxWatcher007,
in New England

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WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Dorian produced the greatest sunset I’ve  ever seen, but this isn’t bad at all.  Unedited      

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Don't lose hope. '38 is still in play:  

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Lee had one Incredible day last Friday….that’s pretty much been it. Somewhat of a disappointment in regards to a powerful cane since then. 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It lasted 12 hrs and went to shit. Funny thing is that SHIPS did show some shear and marginal dry air too. But everyone whacked it to warm SSTs and the intensity was greatly overdone. Yes the water is warmer than normal....much above in some areas. But there is so much more to hurricanes than warm water. 

I’ll readily admit that it didn’t stay super high end as I originally thought in terms of peak wind, but I don’t think this one disappointed. I never bought into the 900mb model runs.

There was a highly unusual signal for an exceptionally strong storm and that did happen, and the RI was on par with some of the greats in the basin.

The magnitude of shear was generally missed by the models, which speaks to how hard intensity forecasting is, but it was still a long track MDR major, something that’s been hard despite the incredibly active period we’ve seen.

Rather than contracting the core and returning to its peak wind, the perpetual ERCs forced energy into expanding its wind field, which is top four all time and up there in IKE. That’s very hard to do IMO. On par with becoming a 5, which it had already accomplished. 

I know everyone loves the pretty buzzsaws and I do too, but this is an all-timer to me in its own right. Hitting a less populated area at the end of its life cycle will hurt its historical legacy. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I’ll readily admit that it didn’t stay super high end as I originally thought in terms of peak wind, but I don’t think this one disappointed. I never bought into the 900mb model runs.

There was a highly unusual signal for an exceptionally strong storm and that did happen, and the RI was on par with some of the greats in the basin.

The magnitude of shear was generally missed by the models, which speaks to how hard intensity forecasting is, but it was still a long track MDR major, something that’s been hard despite the incredibly active period we’ve seen.

Rather than contracting the core and returning to its peak wind, the perpetual ERCs forced energy into expanding its wind field, which is top four all time and up there in IKE. That’s very hard to do IMO. On par with becoming a 5, which it had already accomplished. 

I know everyone loves the pretty buzzsaws and I do too, but this is an all-timer to me in its own right. Hitting a less populated area at the end of its life cycle will hurt its historical legacy. 

I'm just speaking from a forecasting POV. SHIPS did show a couple of red flags. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

its just funny seeing a few coming close.. thinking about going to chatham but waiting to make my decision on booking a hotel until tonight.. it would be pretty cool to atleast see some good wave action

Just keep in mind winds may not be from the typical direction to drive those waves into the beach there. Winds will be NW. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

what do you think will be a good spot?

Trying to think. Maybe up by Ptown? I'd try to find something exposed to the NW....but also not just a beach. Maybe there is some sort of a seawall or something to get the full effect of the waves crashing? In any case I think Ptown may be best for winds. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

what do you think will be a good spot?

Don’t waste your time and money unless this thing backs west some over the next 24 hrs.  I think as currently forecast it’s still too far away from The Cape for the real goods. Drive to Eastport, Maine tomorrow…it’ll be worth a 7-8 hr drive to see the real show. 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Trying to think. Maybe up by Ptown? I'd try to find something exposed to the NW....but also not just a beach. Maybe there is some sort of a seawall or something to get the full effect of the waves crashing? In any case I think Ptown may be best for winds. 

 

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Don’t waste your time and money unless this thing backs west some over the next 24 hrs.  I think as currently forecast it’s still too far away from The Cape for the real goods. Drive to Eastport, Maine tomorrow…it’ll be worth a 7-8 hr drive to see the real show. 

waiting to make my decision until tonight and Eastport is a option 

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