NJwx85 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1704688609113071744?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 Rgem just sits and spins over the delmarva with rain all day thru Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 10 hours ago, qg_omega said: This one is gone So was Sandy, Ida and every blizzard we've had for the last 15 years. 4 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 Gfs still holding back the heavy rain til Sunday. Barely .25" Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs still holding back the heavy rain til Sunday. Barely .25" Saturday Wetter then 18z but still not like some of the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 Ukie lol..good night 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 00z Ukie west and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 these models you never know from one run to the next smh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: 00z Ukie west and stronger. Looks like Euro went in this direction too Also pretty remarkable how our supposed endless summer just sort of ended. Looks quite cool (highs at least) moving forward. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 euro and all the models are a joke 24 hours ago it was over now the opposite.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like Euro went in this direction too Also pretty remarkable how our supposed endless summer just sort of ended. Looks quite cool (highs at least) moving forward. It wouldn't surprise me if the models continue to come in a bit wetter. Widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts look like a good bet. Some higher amounts up to 5-6" would also not surprise me. Considering how much rain some areas have had recently flooding is going to be a concern so I would expect the NWS to eventually issue flood watches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: It wouldn't surprise me if the models continue to come in a bit wetter. Widespread 1-3" rainfall amounts look like a good bet. Some higher amounts up to 5-6" would also not surprise me. Considering how much rain some areas have had recently flooding is going to be a concern so I would expect the NWS to eventually issue flood watches. There will likely be a tropical connection too so I agree on locally much higher amounts. I think we need another full day of model runs before we know exactly what will happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Models starting to converge on the wetter coastal hugger tucked in track. The CMC came east and the Euro west. So a compromise of about 65% of what CMC had and about 35% Euro. So two swings and a miss so far from the Euro with tropical tracks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.(58/68) or -3. Gone are the 80's for October as GFS struggles with 75 the next 16 days now. 3" still possible through 'Saturday>>> Monday AM' period. Reached 79 here yesterday at 5:30pm. Today: 72-75, wind ne., few clouds, 60 tomorrow AM. 61*/64%RH) here at 7am. 63* at 9am. 67* at Noon. 73* at 3pm. 76* at 4pm. Reached 77* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models starting to converge on the wetter coastal hugger tucked in track. The CMC came east and the Euro west. So a compromise of about 65% of what CMC had and about 35% Euro. So two swings and a miss so far from the Euro with tropical tracks. Checked a few of this pages comments and agreed... imo, EC-GFS may not be doing too well in the longer ranges with qpf here in the NYC subforum with overall GEPS seeming to be better allowing soaker 1"+ up to I90. Not a done deal north of I84 but sure looks like a somewhat nasty 5-7 day period Sat 23rd-Fri 29th. Spot 4-6" NJ-LI/e PA seem probable. Rainouts of MLB games possible NYC, PHL, DCA meaning some might be doubled up on a day or not played at all depending on MLB impacts. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 5 minutes ago, wdrag said: Checked a few of this pages comments and agreed... imo, EC-GFS may not be doing too well in the longer ranges with qpf here in the NYC subforum with overall GEPS seeming to be better allowing soaker 1"+ up to I90. Not a done deal north of I84 but sure looks like a somewhat nasty 5-7 day period Sat 23rd-Fri 29th. Spot 4-6" NJ-LI/e PA seem probable. Rainouts of MLB games possible NYC, PHL, DCA meaning some might be doubled up on a day or not played at all depending on MLB impacts. I know you have been a supporter of having the CMC on your side when making a forecast. I would have to say the model is the most Improved since recent upgrades. I wish we had a east coast storm statistical storm tracker which would score the models solely on forecasting the most accurate track. These Northern Hemispheric skill scores don’t tell us much about which model get our storm tracks right. But the skill on a hemispheric scale is great for temperature and teleconnection forecasts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 You guys would know better than me…NWS has rain starting by 8am on Saturday…looking at the models, this seems to be a little early on the predictions, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks like Euro went in this direction too Also pretty remarkable how our supposed endless summer just sort of ended. Looks quite cool (highs at least) moving forward. It wasn't even an endless summer anyway in terms of heat/above normal temps. Outside of a hot stretch during Labor Day week, the last month has been quite comfortable and actually fall-like in the morning a lot of days. One of the best late summer stretches in years at least for those of us who prefer not to have swamp ass. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Just now, kat5hurricane said: It wasn't even an endless summer anyway in terms of heat/above normal temps. Outside of a hot stretch during Labor Day week, the last month has been quite comfortable and actually fall-like in the morning a lot of days. One of the best late summer stretches in years. That was a solid 7+ days of record setting temperatures that will skew the month well above normal (+2) against the warmer averages. And in the city lows are still struggling to drop below 60 so yes its been a very warm stretch. A few cooler days won't change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 Euro going with the wetter Sunday option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 23 minutes ago, guinness77 said: You guys would know better than me…NWS has rain starting by 8am on Saturday…looking at the models, this seems to be a little early on the predictions, no? Models have sped up the timing and as stated above, there's a 2nd piece now for Sunday showing up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That was a solid 7+ days of record setting temperatures that will skew the month well above normal (+2) against the warmer averages. And in the city lows are still struggling to drop below 60 so yes its been a very warm stretch. A few cooler days won't change that. The other 4 boroughs besides Queens have dipped below 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 Going to have some coastal flooding and beach erosion with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 A nice chilly 51 degree's this morning at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That was a solid 7+ days of record setting temperatures that will skew the month well above normal (+2) against the warmer averages. And in the city lows are still struggling to drop below 60 so yes its been a very warm stretch. A few cooler days won't change that. I live not far from LaGuardia which is considered one of the hot spots for morning lows and there have been many cool mornings, not just a few cool days. August had many beautiful, low humidity days. It was the Labor Day week stretch with the real hot days and that's been it for the most part for REAL summer weather in the last 4-5 weeks. Pretty close to normal temps but with much lower humidity than we've been accustomed to in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 32 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: It wasn't even an endless summer anyway in terms of heat/above normal temps. Outside of a hot stretch during Labor Day week, the last month has been quite comfortable and actually fall-like in the morning a lot of days. One of the best late summer stretches in years at least for those of us who prefer not to have swamp ass. The first two weeks of the month were endless summer as they they were one of the warmest on record. Since the 15th we have been pretty close to average against the warmer 91-20 climate normals. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14 Missing Count 1 1961-09-14 81.4 0 2 2023-09-14 79.0 0 3 1983-09-14 77.2 0 4 2015-09-14 76.9 0 5 1947-09-14 76.4 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14 Missing Count 1 1961-09-14 77.8 0 2 1983-09-14 74.6 0 3 2023-09-14 74.5 0 4 2015-09-14 73.7 0 5 2016-09-14 72.9 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 14 Missing Count 1 2023-09-14 75.9 0 2 1983-09-14 74.1 0 3 2015-09-14 73.9 0 4 1980-09-14 73.1 0 5 2016-09-14 72.7 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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