WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Inner core structure is extremely healthy. Column is vertically stacked as evident with the noticeable outflow expanding across all 4 quads. Ventilation looks uninhibited, Idalia is about to tank rapidly. Could see a very steep, very sudden drop in pressure soon. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Lightning firing all around the eyewall, looks like another round of intensification is under way or beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Radar is so degraded from that distance but it looks like we have twin mesovorticies rotating around the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Some impressive surge flooding vicinity Ft. Myers earlier today. Tampa Bay should see some notable water rise later tonight to around pre-dawn tomorrow. LOTS of water going to be piling into Appalachee Bay between mid-night and dawn tomorrow. Fort Myers photos. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 the 18Z HAFS trending back E the 18Z GFS came back slighty E also. Feeling better about Tallahassee now. Basically seems it will come ashore one the best places if you want to minimize damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Plenty of time left over hot water to get to CAT 3. May even sneak up close to 4 as it approaches the Coast. If it doesn’t, it certainly won’t be because of a lack of an energy source given the record high GoM water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Lighting blowing up in the eyewall again the last 30 minutes... Seems like that's always been a good indicator of intensification.Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 hour ago, wkd said: Appreciate the response but I don't see how this applies to the current situation. Hatteras and also the Capes in New England will certainly experience more adverse effects from coastal storms due to their eastward location. But how does that apply to the current situation in the Gulf? I was just speaking in general, but the area near Cedar Key is tucked in, which is probably why they have never had a major strike...kind of a mini Georiga. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Brand new dropsonde says 965 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Latest center pass is at 965 mb, a 7 mb drop in about 2.5 hours (from the first pass). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Steep pressure gradient and beefy rain rates in the northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, dan11295 said: the 18Z HAFS trending back E the 18Z GFS came back slighty E also. Feeling better about Tallahassee now. Basically seems it will come ashore one the best places if you want to minimize damage. Maximum surge will be basically be coming into nature preserves and marshes. Uninhabited, so yes could not ask for better landfall location as far as surge threat to life and property. As center moves onshore and winds spread inland that is going to be a big problem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 110 mph at the next advisory?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Look at the OOCL Southampton charging across the Gulf directly in front of Idalia. With a 16 kt forward speed, aren't they kind of driving directly into a strengthening hurricane? Only boat in the area.Any marine experts out there able to see how much of a gamble they're taking?https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:689722/zoom:6Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 110 mph at the next advisory?? at least that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Recon reports show Idalia is moving a little east of due north now. Last advisory was due north (360) we'll see what 8pm and 11 pm show but IMO by 11:00 advisory should be on at least a 10 degree heading. I think recon is picking up on the expected turn to the NNE by tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Papin! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, SluggerWx said: Look at the OOCL Southampton charging across the Gulf directly in front of Idalia. With a 16 kt forward speed, aren't they kind of driving directly into a strengthening hurricane? Only boat in the area. Any marine experts out there able to see how much of a gamble they're taking?https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:689722/zoom:6 Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk That was 12 hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Mr. Hazelton... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 16 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 110 mph at the next advisory?? We will find out soon. 965mb pressure on latest NOAA flight as of a few minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 That was 12 hours ago? Gotcha, didn't see the timestamp. Thanks!Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Mr. Hazelton... He’s a tad late to the party, Idalia is currently strengthening into a Category 3 as I type this. Considering it’s got 12hrs left, I assume “likely” is a typo. He meant to say Idalia will intensify into a Category 3. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 234400 2649N 08438W 6968 02836 9625 +156 +129 230012 021 028 002 00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Not here for analysis, but just wanted to send a thank you to all Mets and chasers. The wobble east seems to have been corrected more NNE now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 105 mph @ 8 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 8:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29Location: 26.9°N 84.7°WMoving: N at 16 mphMin pressure: 965 mbMax sustained: 105 mph 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Good chance of Cat 3 by the 11 pm advisory. We'll see. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Good chance of Cat 3 by the 11 pm advisory. We'll see. I’d say that’s probably a definite at this point. 8pm advisory had 965 but it’s down to 962 currently. When does NHC start updates every hour like at what lead time? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 On the cusp of becoming a major hurricane 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 962 is pretty low pressure for a cat 2 in the Gulf. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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