Hurricane Idalia

[MANDA]

From the looks of things Idalia is getting ready to launch.  Satellite and radar looking quite impressive.  Idalia is just getting ready to cross into the southern GOM.  I said about 36 hours ago if she can have a core established by that time the stronger solutions will play out.  Looks to be entering the GOM as an intensifying Tropical Cyclone.  Once she center clears western Cuba I think we are going to be in for a show.  Also, IMO I think the nudges westward in the track guidance are over.  Looking at WV loop the small upper low over the FL Panhandle is moving east and lifting out.  Idalia should follow in that general direction as upper trof dropping through the GL/Upper Ohio Valley eventually takes over the shunts her east off SC/NC coast.  Landfall I believe is 25 miles either side of Cedar Key.  No doubt in my mind though that the lid is going to come off the pot soon.

[Kevin Reilly]

34 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I see some limiting factors on the water vapor map dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south.  I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. 

[Hotair]

Cuban Radar

[1234snow]

Is that the LLC going over the western tip of Cuba or the MLC?

[Floydbuster]

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south.  I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. 

Thinking along same lines on possible adjustment to the right in track and for the same reason you mentioned, though not thinking as far to the right as Sarasota.  Pine Island maybe?  IMO not concerned about any dry air, atmosphere looks moist ahead (especially if track is more to the right) and if there is some dry air entrained from the SW it should be able to get mixed out quickly with increasingly favorable jet divergence aloft.

[Looking to the skies]

1 minute ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

That Low is not coming that far S

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

Very much agree!

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I have trouble seeing how Idalia would get past that line I drew on the map, especially as the upper level feature in the Eastern Gulf moves along.

The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility. 

[Hotair]

Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee 

[USCG RS]

Just now, Hotair said:

Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee 

I see you are in Tampa. I would personally prepare for the worst and make plans in case it looks like you need to move further inland. While I personally do not believe this will be the case, it would be foolish -in my opinion- not to be ready in case something like this took place. 

One just need remember Charley in 2004. 

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

Even if the models prove accurate, Idalia’s strongest winds by far are in the SE quadrant presently.  I can’t imagine a scenario where Tampa Bay region avoids seriously damaging surge as it moves toward the big bend or even Tallahassee 

And should stay that way, particularly near landfall when sw shear picks up. Saw mention of potential for halfcane or oddly shaped presentation.

[Floydbuster]

5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

The question is does it miss the trough... As it strengthens and remains in weak steering currents... I would think that this is a real possibility. 

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

[Hotair]

[beanskip]

Meanwhile the 0z NAM is all the way over to Apalachicola about 100 miles west of its 18z run.

Crappy model? Yes.

Umpteenth west trend today. Yes, too. 

[Seminole]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Seems to be the case more often than not. 

 

[Hotair]

Radio Minas from Pinar Del Rio Cuba is reporting gusts of 73.9 mph and sustained at 56 mph. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

 But unlike for Ian, the GFS isn't 250 miles NW of the UKMET. The model agreement is much better for Idalia.

[Kevin Reilly]

The models all shifting west we saw this last year with Ian then once Ian got into the Gulf everything with each consecutive run kept correcting and coming further and further southeast with a NE trajectory then forced into the coast at Sanibel Island and Fort Myers Beach.  The same thing could happen again but just a bit further north just something to watch.  The same can be said with past hurricanes like Charlie coming from this same general region near western Cuba. 

[cptcatz]

14 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'm still reeling from the GFS and ensembles bust from last year taking Ian to the panhandle instead of Sanibel/Captiva. Whether it's Hurricane Irene 1999, Hurricane Charley 2004, Hurricane Ian 2022, they always seem to move eastward as they are influenced by the trough in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. 

[Floydbuster]

4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. 

Agree. This time it might really go west, but looking on satellite it is difficult to envision. But of course, I can read the model agreement, and it's there.

[Hotair]

Jim Cantore arrived in Gainesville tonight and is headed to Cedar Key.   
 

recall he was at Clearwater Beach last year when Ian made landfall in Ft. Myers 

[Wannabehippie]

New advisory should be out soon, will be interesting to see if they increased the wind speed on it to make it a hurricane.

[Doc Jon]

lightning starting up in the CoC again.  

[TradeWinds]

13 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

GFS for the most part was the outlier for Ian. Lots of other models had it going between Tampa and Ft Myers. All the models are in agreement with Idalia. 

Don't disagree on current consensus but GFS was not the outlier for Ian. UK and Euro were mostly the outliers. 

[Master of Disaster]

Infrared does show an eye for the first time just north of the tip of Cuba with lightning popping around it.  

[RU848789]

Idalia really looking much healthier over the last several hours - much more concentric convection around the center, as the shear has obviously eased somewhat.  But still a TS...

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Idalia is producing intense bursts of convection near the center,  
with an overall comma-shaped cloud pattern along with a dry slot 
over the western part of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is 
restricted over the northwestern quadrant.  Radar images from 
the Meteorological Service of Cuba show a partial eyewall forming.  
Flight-level and dropwindsonde data from NOAA and Air Force aircraft 
indicate that Idalia is very near hurricane strength.  The maximum 
winds are set again to 60 kt for this advisory.

The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an 
initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at 
around 7 kt.  Idalia should be steered northward along the western 
side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to 
a trough to its northwest.  This track will take the center across 
the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over 
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter.  In 2 to 3 
days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast 
will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to 
eastward off the coast of the Carolinas.  The official track 
forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous 
one.  This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are 
fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the 
ECMWF on the right side.

Although Idalia is currently experiencing some moderate 
northwesterly vertical wind shear, the dynamical guidance indicates 
that the shear will lessen while the system is over the eastern 
Gulf of Mexico.  This, along with a conducive thermodynamic 
atmospheric environment and high oceanic heat content, should cause 
Idalia to strengthen rapidly in the 12- to 36-hour time frame.  The 
official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows the system 
becoming a major hurricane before landfall along the Florida Gulf 
coast.  This is in general agreement with the regional hurricane 
hurricane models, HAFS and HWRF, but above much of the other
intensity guidance.

Idalia is forecast to move into an area that is highly susceptible 
to storm surge, and regardless of the cyclone's specific landfall 
intensity, there is increasing confidence that a significant storm 
surge event will occur.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River.  Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across 
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban 
flooding as well as landslides.  Areas of flash and urban flooding, 
some of which may be locally significant, are expected across 
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and 
southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of 
the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0300Z 22.0N  85.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 23.7N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 26.2N  84.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 29.0N  83.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  31/0000Z 31.5N  81.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 60H  31/1200Z 33.2N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  01/0000Z 34.0N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 33.5N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 

 

[ROOSTA]

Key West Radar. 
Let the watch begin. To pick-up echos from that distance...spinning like a mofo at what maybe 40-50k. 
The obligatory
"BOMBS AWAY" 

[Floydbuster]

Visually it reminds me so much of Irene in October 1999. 

I remember the original forecasts and the models kept showing west and eventually, Irene just dragged more and more east.

 

I think that's why my visual take on Idalia is giving me a memory back to tracks similar to Irene 1999, where the storm sort of drags eastward.

[Floydbuster]