MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Clearly seems to be beginning an ERC which will probably help the wind-aspect of this system for coastal Florida. Also, if that is the case, could cause weakening once inland a little more quickly than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 South like the the southern eyewall has opened up, at least it will be weakening some on landfall. Doesn't mean anything for the storm surge of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looks like Sarasota FL has very high waters in the street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Things picking up quickly here. Pressure falling as winds come up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Lowered to Cat 3 125 mph due to the EWRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Halficane but instead of usual southern semi-circle being absent it's the eastern semi-circle. I know they kept it at 130mph cat 4 but I doubt it's cat 4 anymore imo. Regardless still going to be destructive esp with storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsty2001 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just dropped back to cat3 due to ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Lots of beautiful spots up the Nature Coast in serious trouble today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said: Just dropped back to cat3 due to ERC I kind of figured it wasn't cat 4 anymore. I didn't think it would attempt an ewrc before landfall though because of fast forward motion but I was mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Cedar Key is approaching 10 ft If Horseshoe beach manages to stay in the band a little longer I can see them surpassing Cedar Key, esp with back flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 34 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Definite weakening trend Heading towards the Gulf Half-a-canes we used to see before Michael, looks like dry air eroding the east side. It’s probably a 120mph storm at this point. Thankfully it’s hitting a sparsely populated area for the worst surge but the inland effects will be pretty serious with the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Looks like the beach just SSW of Perry is going to be ground zero for landfall in about 90 minutes, given the NNE motion at 18 mph with 125 mph winds, as the storm weakened a touch... Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 700 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023 ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...7 AM POSITION UPDATE... Radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun. Idalia's maximum sustained winds are now estimated near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. This change in wind speed does not diminish the threat of catastrophic storm surge and damaging winds. The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 947 mb (27.96 inches). SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 83.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 While the EWRC is good for the Big Bend it can extend the overall windfield which may not be so great for southern Georgia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Keaton Beach area looks to be near ground zero for the western eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Impressive to watch the new eyewall filling in over land rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Eye might be benefitting from frictional convergence. Donut again from Tampa radar. This is not a rapidly weakening storm like a lot of the gulf halfacanes we used to see. I think this is steady state making landfall after a higher end peak a few hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Eye might be benefitting from frictional convergence. Donut again from Tampa radar. This is not a rapidly weakening storm like a lot of the gulf halfacanes we used to see. I think this is steady state making landfall after a higher end peak a few hours ago Yea, that fluctuation over the past couple of hours will be pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 130+ mph velocities again. Moving onto coast as I type. They’d decreased some 30 min ago but have picked back up in NE eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Definitely a jog east from where I thought landfall might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 It actually looks like land interaction may have offset or stopped the ERC as the inner eyewall again looks dominant. We saw this with Ida in Louisiana. Interesting stuff going on here. Definitely a high-end 3 making landfall. Radar, sat, velocities all confirm this. Thank god this is coming into a sparsely populated area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Branches and siding coming off before the eyewall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pretty much as I had expectred. Looks like where guidance had it 36 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Also, eyewall lighting is picking back up. It sputtered for a minute but this isn’t coming in much below peak at all. Major wind threat inland though from reports it looks like it will be a very narrow corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Horseshoe Beach seems to have 6-7 ft+ ongoing and is gonna be in a band for a little bit that exacerbates it. This may be ground zero for surge damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Also, eyewall lighting is picking back up. It sputtered for a minute but this isn’t coming in much below peak at all. Major wind threat inland though from reports it looks like it will be a very narrow corridor Winds (the real damaging aspect anyways) should just be within eyewall. Obviously outside of that will have gusts to hurricane force. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Good thing Idalia is hitting a low population area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Winds (the real damaging aspect anyways) should just be within eyewall. Obviously outside of that will have gusts to hurricane force. Charley could be a similar analog (though that storm was slightly stronger) as to what this wind damage corridor will look like. Extreme wind damage to very little just a few miles away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Perry also may receive a direct eyewall hit. Reminds me a bit of Houma from Ida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 I think we have landfall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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