weatherwiz Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 ***THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONSISTING OF HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER *** With that out of the way, Saturday features another similar scenario with a shortwave tracking across north-central New England. This shortwave is not de-amplifying like Thursday's shortwave and the response from this will be stronger height falls region wide which will help aid in large-scale lift and good wind shear with bulk shear values in the 40-50 knot range. These values will be more than sufficient to aid in updraft organization and should help thunderstorms quickly develop into one or multiple lines. One thing to note, however, is we do not have an advancing warm front to aid in low-level wind shear, thus any tornado potential this go around is much lower. We remain within a rather rich low-level theta-e airmass and the combination of surface temperatures well into the 80's to lower 90's with dewpoints into the lower 70's should contribute to moderate levels of CAPE once again characterized by mixed-layer CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/KG range. The degree of instability will be held back once again by poor mid-level lapse rates and warm mid-level temperatures. Given the combination of strong shortwave forcing, decent height falls, moderate instability, and strong bulk shear, numerous thunderstorms should quickly develop moving through the early-to-mid afternoon. Strong bulk shear and predominately unidirectional flow will quickly allow convection to become organized and grow upscale into one or multiple lines. Damaging Wind Potential: The key regarding the damaging wind potential will be how steep the low-level lapse rates (particularly within the 2-6km layer). As mentioned above, low-level wind shear isn't particularly strong. There isn't much of a low-level jet to mix down. This means intense updrafts would have to develop to aid in downburst potential. On Thursday, despite the strong surface heating that materialized, we were never able to really steep the low-level lapse rate which can be a big discriminator in damaging wind vs. non-damaging wind events. There are hints, however, the low-level lapse rate could be steeper tomorrow. We will likely see a similar scenario to Thursday where we see a localized, but concentrated area of wind damage. This will not be widespread. Hail Potential: Very low hail potential given the poor mid-level lapse rates, warm mid-level temperatures, and subsequently, high freezing levels. Smaller hail is possible, but would take some significant updrafts for hail. Tornado Potential: Much lower then Thursday. Flash Flooding: Localized flash flooding is very likely given the already saturated grounds and potential for some training storms in spots. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 I kind of like tomorrow. Not sure how early convection could screw things up but if we can minimize that the afternoon looks solid for those with reasonable expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 looks like crap here, but hopefully central-southern areas of SNE can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I kind of like tomorrow. Not sure how early convection could screw things up but if we can minimize that the afternoon looks solid for those with reasonable expectations. I don’t think morning convection hurts. Plenty of time for recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 I blaming you if every single road in every town in Ct doesn’t get wind dmg… @weatherwiz 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don’t think morning convection hurts. Plenty of time for recovery. I know but we always say that and then 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 @weatherwiz just a tad windy in IA tonight Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 817 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 IAC031-097-105-113-290200- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0205.000000T0000Z-230729T0200Z/ Jackson IA-Cedar IA-Jones IA-Linn IA- 817 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...NORTHERN CEDAR...JONES AND LINN COUNTIES... At 817 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Buck Creek to Squaw Creek Park, moving east at 65 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Mechanicsville, Stanwood, Marion, Hiawatha, Mount Vernon, Monticello, Robins, Center Point, Cascade, Lisbon, Fairfax, Ely, Walford, Central City, Springville, Palo, Lowden and Olin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4229 9078 4203 9083 4203 9090 4184 9090 4186 9183 4230 9176 TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 280DEG 57KT 4230 9136 4200 9158 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, yoda said: @weatherwiz just a tad windy in IA tonight Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 817 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 IAC031-097-105-113-290200- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0205.000000T0000Z-230729T0200Z/ Jackson IA-Cedar IA-Jones IA-Linn IA- 817 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON...NORTHERN CEDAR...JONES AND LINN COUNTIES... At 817 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Buck Creek to Squaw Creek Park, moving east at 65 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA. HAZARD...100 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Expect considerable damage to homes and businesses. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Cedar Rapids, Anamosa, Mechanicsville, Stanwood, Marion, Hiawatha, Mount Vernon, Monticello, Robins, Center Point, Cascade, Lisbon, Fairfax, Ely, Walford, Central City, Springville, Palo, Lowden and Olin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 4229 9078 4203 9083 4203 9090 4184 9090 4186 9183 4230 9176 TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 280DEG 57KT 4230 9136 4200 9158 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...100 MPH Some around here would meh getting 80 instead of 100 gusts 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 81kt at MIW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Tomorrow probably a better day than yesterday overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tomorrow probably a better day than yesterday overall. I said that in the other thread…wouldn’t take much for areas outside of NH where the tornado hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 3k NAM looked nice in CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 You have to give Wiz credit. He’s like a boxer who’s had his skull beat in for 5 rounds but keeps staggering out there for more punishment 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 3k NAM looked nice in CT HRRR looks good for a lot of us tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Sometimes the second round is the better gig…we’ve seen that happen in winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 51 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: You have to give Wiz credit. He’s like a boxer who’s had his skull beat in for 5 rounds but keeps staggering out there for more punishment Fly weight class maybe… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Sometimes the second round is the better gig…we’ve seen that happen in winter too. I can’t recall a heat wave that was bookended by convection. Back in the day at least, it seemed that heat almost always goes out with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Some around here would meh getting 80 instead of 100 gusts It's meh until your house gets blown away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Had a couple solid bangs in the middle of the night. Hopefully we finish strong today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Hopefully later today is as wild as the models are showing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Some garbage rains in CT now mid morning messing up the chance of getting those steep low level lapse rates , you hate to see it , thou maybe some one still sees good storms late and wxwatcher if SNE had 70 mph winds in a few reports in Eastern areas “everyone” would have cream in their pants , some would be upset they got nothing but they would acknowledge the day was Part of a significant Outbreak ..but as we know ..not gonna happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Cell headed right toward me dried up to nothing in the last 20 minutes..we dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Looks near and along the pike sees some training early afternoon as CT turns somewhat sunny and then we organize into several rounds of linear and bowing segments late afternoon into the early night south of pike to coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 82f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 29, 2023 Author Share Posted July 29, 2023 Most everyone is at least going to get some degree of rain. Some of the CAMS hint at some discrete cells this afternoon, but the main show is going to be vey late afternoon and early evening. Will see some very good lightning producers and probably another concentrated swath of wind damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Most everyone is at least going to get some degree of rain. Some of the CAMS hint at some discrete cells this afternoon, but the main show is going to be vey late afternoon and early evening. Will see some very good lightning producers and probably another concentrated swath of wind damage. Bring it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Not sure why Wiz' thinks this scenario is going be such a high end widespread occurrence of tornadoes hurling bowling ball hail like rocks out of a lawn mower ... particularly when it's being attenuated by a morning band of thread killer light rain poison ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 81/73 mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Sun's out, guns out. It is hot and muggy as hell. Pretty pathetic if we can't capitalize on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure why Wiz' thinks this scenario is going be such a high end widespread occurrence of tornadoes hurling bowling ball hail like rocks out of a lawn mower ... particularly when it's being attenuated by a morning band of thread killer light rain poison ... He actually said it isn’t gonna be anything particularly strong in his opening statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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