2023 - tracking the tropics

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Expectations through the roof and out of whack. That little s/w is the perfect illustration of why this is still a low probability deal despite the general trend. The smallest thing can force this east, especially given how soon it’s expected to turn N. If this got buried in the central/NW Bahamas there’d be more wiggle room.

This pretty much sums it up.  And why majors are so rare in the north east. Most of our storms are coming up from the Carolina’s having weakened due to land interaction. That’s why 38 was so special, it bypassed the normal disruption and came in directly from the ocean. 

[Brian5671]

Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This pretty much sums it up.  And why majors are so rare in the north east. Most of our storms are coming up from the Carolina’s having weakened due to land interaction. That’s why 38 was so special, it bypassed the normal disruption and came in directly from the ocean. 

Even Sandy to that degree-hard left turn at the end-so rare

[NorEastermass128]

Surf will be wild anyway even if this ends up 700 miles offshore. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Surf will be wild anyway even if this ends up 700 miles offshore. 

This will be a major beach erosion beast. Huge circulation with a very large fetch as its passing by. Most likely the largest swell for the north east since bill 08. I’m thinking ahead of some protected breaks inside inlets that break once a decade. Because the paddle may be damn near impossible. 

[WeatherHappens]

A flea farts in Quebec, bye bye Lee.

[FXWX]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You really need a sharp trough in the GL/OV and stout ridge in the maritimes. These positively tilted troughs won't do it.

Yup...  while we always jerk around all the "possibilities' history tells us 99.9999 % of the time you need what you noted...  These systems are like a bomb flooding down the river with a big bend in the river approaching.  Unless you can put 1 or 2 things into the river to deflect it across the river to the other bank, its going with the flow (seaward)... 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If that piece lifted out, we'd probably cane. 

You could play that game with every system though.

This is no different than why it’s really hard to get a massive winter storm up here generally. A shitstreak appears out of nowhere to screw it up.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You could play that game with every system though.

This is no different than why it’s really hard to get a massive winter storm up here generally. A shitstreak appears out of nowhere to screw it up.

This has the overall synoptics, unlike other setups. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The pieces are there … in one big chess game ….

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This has the overall synoptics, unlike other setups. 

It does ...

... which at D7 lead before it becomes critical to sew in the necessities, we're still just picking out fabric and tread. 

My issue is that the telecon d(spread) is perfect!        

7 days of modeling peregrinations to emerge features that are actually favored to be there ... mmm. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

Actually they seem to be in agreement. Outlook Not So Good for a New England landfall.

Pretty tough getting these to make the the turn up the coast in the right spot then get it to go NNW with the shape of the East Coast and fronts moving thru and off the coast most of the time with these accelerating and transitioning to sub tropical in most cases as they gain latitude.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This has the overall synoptics, unlike other setups. 

I’m sure this will end up anywhere but here. Probably twisting 1000 miles se of Nantucket.

[WeatherHappens]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pretty tough getting these to make the the turn up the coast in the right spot then get it to go NNW with the shape of the East Coast and fronts moving thru and off the coast most of the time with these accelerating and transitioning to sub tropical in most cases as they gain latitude.

I want this to happen as much as one here, but the reality of it is that it probably won't

[Chrisrotary12]

The modeled trough at the end of the GFS run would get it done. Just no modeled cane.

[NorEastermass128]

33 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This will be a major beach erosion beast. Huge circulation with a very large fetch as its passing by. Most likely the largest swell for the north east since bill 08. I’m thinking ahead of some protected breaks inside inlets that break once a decade. Because the paddle may be damn near impossible. 

Your name checks out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pretty tough getting these to make the the turn up the coast in the right spot then get it to go NNW with the shape of the East Coast and fronts moving thru and off the coast most of the time with these accelerating and transitioning to sub tropical in most cases as they gain latitude.

LOL,

for a lot folk's sanity ... almost better to engage in other hobbies and/or weather focus' ... then be notified whence the time comes that it's happening.   

By the way, ... while you were gone -

Because the journey in this case is NOT its own rewards. haha

[drstuess]

This will be a major beach erosion beast. Huge circulation with a very large fetch as its passing by. Most likely the largest swell for the north east since bill 08. I’m thinking ahead of some protected breaks inside inlets that break once a decade. Because the paddle may be damn near impossible. 

An aside. But I find the protected areas are better/bigger in RI during big winter storms and lower period. The big period makes it feel the bottom and refract and draws all the energy to the points. Very spot dependant and if big enough, the novelties will still break, but big offshore swells don't always translate.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:

I want this to happen as much as one here, but the reality of it is that it probably won't

Sure there are some that want it to happen, But i'm sure if your living on the coast up here your not looking for a landfall, Odds are always against it, But trying to figure it out a LF at day 8-10 is throwing darts at a dart board,

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

LOL,

for a lot folk's sanity ... almost better to engage in other hobbies and/or weather focus' ... then be notified whence the time comes that it's happening.   

By the way, ... while you were gone -

Because the journey in this case is NOT its own rewards. haha

I guess if there was ever a time to get a major LF cane, Why not this year after having close to 28"+of rain this summer in many locales, Whats another 5-10"?        

[WeatherHappens]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sure there are some that want it to happen, But i'm sure if your living on the coast up here your not looking for a landfall, Odds are always against it, But trying to figure it out a LF at day 8-10 is throwing darts at a dart board,

I do live on the coast up here...Winthrop,Mass as coastal as coastal can be lol. 8-10 days a lot of things change.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dryslot said:

I guess if there was ever a time to get a major LF cane, Why not this year after having close to 28"+of rain this summer in many locales, Whats another 5-10"?        

See summer / fall of 38’ leading up to cane. Interesting correlation to this year 

[Great Snow 1717]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The pieces are there … in one big chess game ….

but chess can result in zugzwang.....Tip will understand.

[dryslot]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

I do live on the coast up here...Winthrop,Mass as coastal as coastal can be lol.

I really never looked at you locale, But as long as its not in my BY.........

[ineedsnow]

12z GEFS are closer

[ineedsnow]

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sure there are some that want it to happen, But i'm sure if your living on the coast up here your not looking for a landfall, Odds are always against it, But trying to figure it out a LF at day 8-10 is throwing darts at a dart board,

Even 2-3 days out can be dicey for a general location. If you’re looking for the eye over your head, predicting a few hours out is nerve wracking. Nothing like it. 

[NorEastermass128]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

As someone that lives close to the water, I’m not liking the saggy lower left quadrant of Lee’s boob there. 

[WeatherHappens]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I really never looked at you locale, But as long as its not in my BY.........

My back yard is pretty much the ocean lol.

[WeatherHappens]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

As someone that lives close to the water, I’m not liking the saggy lower left quadrant of Lee’s boob there. 

Pretty sexy lol.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

As someone that lives close to the water, I’m not liking the saggy lower left quadrant of Lee’s boob there. 

Gonna look like one of those pointy bras from the 60s.