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May 2023

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The next 8 days are averaging     64degs.(55/73) or -1.

Month to date is     62.3[+0.9].       Should be    62.9[+0.3] by thr 26th.

Reached 66 here yesterday.

Today:  58-63,wind e. to s., p. sunny, 51 tomorrow AM.

49*(40%RH) here at 7am{was 48 at 6am}.    52* at 9am.     53* at Noon.    56* at 2pm.     Reached 61* at 7pm.

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Down to 37 now up to 53.  Overall (outside of Sat) dry, near normal stretch of weather the next 8 days.  Sat (5/20) rain for the area, first meaningful amounts in more than 2 weeks, brunt or heavist  >1  inch or more still to be determined.

could see temps push near 80 Sunday (5/21) with enough clearing, balanced out by cooler Mon (5/22) and Tue (5/23).    Warming tend through the rest of next week with ridge building into the Ohio Valley and east memorial day weekend.  Need to see if onshore flow undercuts ridge and perhaps some stormiess run up under, but overall warmer / more humid and perhaps heat build down by months end.

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15 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Undeniably a first class "cold" shot for this time of year.  Not only for the numerous record lows across the Northeast this morning but for afternoon highs yesterday and today.  Quite impressive.

seems like a microcosm of this past winter.  2 short, but wild cold blasts that were in and out in 2 days

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Unseasonably cool readings prevailed following a morning with near record and record cold. However, the coldest air is now in the past. Slow moderation will commence tomorrow.

Readings will continue to warm during the weekend, but rain is possible. Parts of the region could see a general 0.25"-0.75" of rain with some higher amounts. A stripe of 1"-2" of rain is possible across eastern New England. Some of the guidance suggests that temperatures could return to the 80s to close the month.

Typically, a very warm April is followed by a somewhat cooler than normal May in the Middle Atlantic region. Nevertheless, the guidance has persistently suggested that the month will end with a somewhat warmer than normal average.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will very likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.333 today.

On May 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.765 (RMM). The May 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.458 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.3° (0.1° above normal).


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