Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18 inches with this one

Not many better ones to look at

It changed to rain for us, I still look at January 2016 as the peak of our winter storms.

[donsutherland1]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:32 AM, Brian5671 said:

LOL

WeatherBell Analytics was predicting 30 inches, and Joe Bastardi, the former long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, saw temperatures slightly below normal, “and the worry is it will be colder.” Not to worry: It was one of the milder winters on record.

Article: https://www.inquirer.com/weather/philadelphia-weather-snow-forecasts-20240427.html

Speaking of JB, we just made it through his latest forecast period of “major cold.” The NYC temperature anomaly for April 25-28 was 1.3 degrees below normal. That was the 98th coldest April 25-28 period on record. Records go back to 1869. 

[Rjay]

Who's gonna tell metsfan?

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Who's gonna tell metsfan?

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

both had record breaking hot stretches in the summer.

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

JB has moved past what turned out to be his latest missed call and is talking about a pattern similar to 1966 and 1977 for the second week of May. 

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

[rclab]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

Good morning S19. It reminds me of the lyrics from ‘Both Sides Now’: I’ve looked at clouds from both sides now … from up and down and still somehow … its clouds illusions I recall … I really don’t know clouds at all’. As always …..

 

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

By then he will be laying the groundwork for next winter's ice age call....that of course after a CAT 5 recurves into NY Harbor...

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

You're probably right. Maybe he'll dig out the 1816 analog for June given his practice of using antiquated and irrelevant analogs.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

both had record breaking hot stretches in the summer.

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

The tree growth over the ASOS has become so dense that Central Park hasn’t made it over 98° since 2012 which is a new record.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 99 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-04-28
1	4302	2012-07-19 through 2024-04-28
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30
6	1786	2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04
7	1763	1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09
8	1761	1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18
9	1476	1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/new-york-city-arguably-has-the-most-unique-weather-observations-in-america

1920

 

2021

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The tree growth over the ASOS has become so dense that Central Park hasn’t made it over 98° since 2012 which is a new record.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 99 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Dates
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2024-04-28
1	4302	2012-07-19 through 2024-04-28
2	4022	1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17
3	3260	1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24
4	2844	1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02
5	2212	1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30
6	1786	2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04
7	1763	1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09
8	1761	1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18
9	1476	1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19
10	1475	1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25

1920

 

2021

Maybe we will have a nice dry summer-- dry through at least July with 3 inches or less rainfall each month would be great.

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The evolving ENSO transition favors a hot summer. I suspect that many parts of the NYC area will have a shot at 100 this summer. We'll have to see if the heat penetrates Central Park's forest.

I'm gungho about JFK finally hitting 100 again too

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

He will still be predicting cold and snow on Memorial Day weekend. He’s living in an alternative universe all to his own 

1. I don't know about snow, but he says that a mean trough in May near the E coast is often a precursor to big H seasons. So, he wants a trough there.

2. He has been wondering why the Euro weeklies at 2M issued directly by ECMWF have been warmer than the WxBell versions of the weeklies. I've been saying that WxBell maps shouldn't be trusted. Keep in mind that Wxbell SSTa CFS maps keep showing a +PDO late in 2024 vs other CFS maps showing a continuing -PDO.

3.  I expect a very active H season, regardless. My hope is that it is similar to 2010.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. I don't know about snow, but he says that a mean trough in May near the E coast is often a precursor to big H seasons. So, he wants a trough there.

2. He has been wondering why the Euro weeklies at 2M issued directly by ECMWF have been warmer than the WxBell versions of the weeklies. I've been saying that WxBell maps shouldn't be trusted. Keep in mind that Wxbell SSTa CFS maps keep showing a +PDO late in 2024 vs other CFS maps showing a continuing -PDO.

3.  I expect a very active H season, regardless. My hope is that it is similar to 2010.

If we should go -IOD I think this Niña really takes off, i.e. 73-74, 88-89. I wish him a lot of luck with those +PDO wishcasts, I think he’s going to need it 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If we should go -IOD I think this Niña really takes off, i.e. 73-74, 88-89. I wish him a lot of luck with those +PDO wishcasts, I think he’s going to need it 

It doesn't much matter. He doesn't seem to care about his credibility since that went out the window years ago and the crazier shit he posts the more followers he seems to get...or at least doesn't seem to be losing many

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

It doesn't much matter. He doesn't seem to care about his credibility since that went out the window years ago and the crazier shit he posts the more followers he seems to get...or at least doesn't seem to be losing many

I'd be surprised if many energy clients have hung on after the last few years of temp busts

[forkyfork]

let's pave over newark bay

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

@snowman19
 

This eruption is even larger than the first, this is incredible. The first was a solid VEI 4 by itself with about .40 cubic kilometers of erupted material. Given this blast now is even larger, there really is a chance for a collective VEI 5 event here. 

These are incredible sequences of lava dome creation and destruction, like Shiveluch last year but even larger and more powerful.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@snowman19
 

This eruption is even larger than the first, this is incredible. The first was a solid VEI 4 by itself with about .40 cubic kilometers of erupted material. Given this blast now is even larger, there really is a chance for a collective VEI 5 event here. 

These are incredible sequences of lava dome creation and destruction, like Shiveluch last year but even larger and more powerful.

how beautiful! where is this? ... near Bali?

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

let's pave over newark bay

why does it even exist? 

[Volcanic Winter]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how beautiful! where is this? ... near Bali?

Indonesia in the Sangihe islands, near North Sulawesi. 

Gunung Ruang

[rclab]

13 hours ago, forkyfork said:

let's pave over newark bay

 

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why does it even exist? 

Possible relocation site for the Central Park ASOS? As always ……

[snowman19]

11 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@snowman19
 

This eruption is even larger than the first, this is incredible. The first was a solid VEI 4 by itself with about .40 cubic kilometers of erupted material. Given this blast now is even larger, there really is a chance for a collective VEI 5 event here. 

These are incredible sequences of lava dome creation and destruction, like Shiveluch last year but even larger and more powerful.

This is a big deal. These are classic tropical volcanic eruptions back to back (cumulative VEI 5 possibly) injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This definitely has implications for the winter….volcanic stratosphere

@GaWx @donsutherland1

[Brian5671]

47 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is a big deal. These are classic tropical volcanic eruptions back to back (cumulative VEI 5 possibly) injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This definitely has implications for the winter….volcanic stratosphere

@GaWx @donsutherland1

JB says ice age winter incoming now....

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is a big deal. These are classic tropical volcanic eruptions back to back (cumulative VEI 5 possibly) injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. This definitely has implications for the winter….volcanic stratosphere

@GaWx @donsutherland1

It will depend how much was injected into the stratosphere. The earlier eruption produced about 0.5 terragrams of sulfur dioxide. About 5 terragrams reaching the stratosphere is required to have a significant short-term climate impact.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152716/a-blanket-of-ash-from-ruang

I haven't seen any data on the most recent eruption, yet, but it should be posted here in coming days:

https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/measures.html

Note: The chart in the above link shows total sulfur dioxide emissions, not solely those that reached the stratosphere.

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will depend how much was injected into the stratosphere. The earlier eruption produced about 0.5 terragrams of sulfur dioxide. About 5 terragrams reaching the stratosphere is required to have a significant short-term climate impact.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/152716/a-blanket-of-ash-from-ruang

I haven't seen any data on the most recent eruption, yet, but it should be posted here in coming days:

https://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/measures.html

Note: The chart in the above link shows total sulfur dioxide emissions, not solely those that reached the stratosphere.

Absolutely Don. 
 

I see they revised the first blast up to half a Tg up from 0.3 from the initial estimate. I can’t overstate how impressive this entire sequence has been. The first blast was the destruction of the existing lava dome (think a plug of viscous magma that hardens into a dome shape blocking the conduit and helping to increase pressure in the system). It was notably intense transpiring only over a couple hours and outputting mid VEI 4 volume; that’s extremely impressive. 

Most volcanoes would then go quiet and enter a prolonged period of repose after such a blast. Instead, Ruang extruded another, even larger lava dome which hardened into another plug. The injection of fresh magma into the chambers below apparently never stopped, and Ruang built back up like a pressure cooker. This second blast was utterly spectacular, the amount of power behind blasts of that nature is bewildering. 

Like Grimsvotn in 2011, most VEI 4-5 plinian eruptions are only moderately intense and transpire over 12 or more hours. You have a generally sustained eruption column that may occasionally collapse into pyroclastic flows down the flanks of the system. 

Ruang just did everything all at once, twice!

[Volcanic Winter]

And just to give a sense of how insane the VEI scale and explosive volcanism in general gets, assuming Ruang hits a minimal VEI 5 of 1 cubic kilometer (St Helens was 1.2 cubic kilometer, much of that erupted laterally), it would have to further erupt 10x more volume to reach a minimal VEI 6 (around what Hunga Tonga did, and a little less than Pinatubo).

From current levels (again assuming 1 cubic kilometer - a minimal VEI 5), it would have to erupt 100x more material to reach a VEI 7, 150x in the case of Tambora. 

To reach a ‘supereruption’ at VEI 8, it would need 1000x its current erupted volume. 

The Toba supereruption 75kya was 3500-5000x this hypothetical VEI 5 Ruang eruption. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And just to give a sense of how insane the VEI scale and explosive volcanism in general gets, assuming Ruang hits a minimal VEI 5 of 1 cubic kilometer (St Helens was 1.2 cubic kilometer, much of that erupted laterally), it would have to further erupt 10x more volume to reach a minimal VEI 6 (around what Hunga Tonga did, and a little less than Pinatubo).

From current levels (again assuming 1 cubic kilometer - a minimal VEI 5), it would have to erupt 100x more material to reach a VEI 7, 150x in the case of Tambora. 

To reach a ‘supereruption’ at VEI 8, it would need 1000x its current erupted volume. 

The Toba supereruption 75kya was 3500-5000x this hypothetical VEI 5 Ruang eruption. 

I really hope I get to experience a VEI 7 in my lifetime. Purely from a meteorological perspective. Too much to write in regards to how incredible that would be in the face of global warming.