April 2023

[bluewave]

Very impressive backdoor pushing through the Southeast.
 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=se&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

 

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, HailMan06 said:

Barring some overpowering external factor the western Atlantic sst’s will likely pump up the WAR again like it has the past several years so probably not.

pacific will do it, a strong pacific signal can overwhelm whatever the atlantic wants to do, just like it did in the winter.  Strong war with westerly winds.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive backdoor pushing through the Southeast.
 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=se&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

 

 

It's interesting they are going to be colder than we are.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

So much for mostly sunny today

It wasn't supposed to be sunny today....we'll see the sun again on Sunday.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great pattern for record snow in the West.

 

I'd like to see this pattern continue through the summer

[Volcanic Winter]

I want the diametric opposite next winter. 

Park a big fat trough over us for 120 days and keep those waves comin’. 

If we’re 34 and rain all winter I riot. 

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air has returned to close the week. The cool weather will continue through the weekend before another potentially impressive warmup develops.

In parts of Florida, excessive early spring warmth continued. Both Fort Myers and Tampa demolished their record warmest start to April. At Fort Myers, the temperature averaged 80.6°. The old record was 78.9° from 2017. At Tampa, the temperature averaged 79.3°. The old record was 76.9° from 2017. April 1-7, 2023 was both cities' warmest 7-day period so early in the season.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +23.94 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.001 today.

On April 5 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.859 (RMM). The April 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.966 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

On 4/4/2023 at 4:51 PM, Allsnow said:

Was their any doubt that we would torch? New climo 

 

80’s are a lock Thursday 

Lay-up. Go warm 

[Roger Smith]

The adjustment of the NYC high means that 1912 no longer retains any share of the ten record highs it set (relative to 1869 to 1911). It was holding on to a 0.33 count of surviving highs for a long time. The other two years removed yesterday (1921, 1947) still have record counts of 2.5 and 2.0 counting ties. Those years also set a lot of records that have since been overtaken. 

If we allow 1869 to 1900 to be a "starter era" and automatically hold records from the highest values, and then take whatever new records came along after that, only four years failed to set new record highs (at NYC). Those were 1958, 1992, 2004 and 2014. 

Although every year before 1958 set records by those rules, of the 89 years 1869 to 1957, 30 have gone "extinct" like 1912 just did, but all of those 30 are before 1927, and all but two (1924, 1926) are before 1913. 

After 1958, the first year to fail to produce a record high, as mentioned three other years failed (1992, 2004, 2014), and just two (1968, 1978) have gone extinct. 1968 dropped out on Nov 29, 1990, and 1978 lasted only to Dec 4, 1982. 

The four "fail" years were effectively blocked from holding records on these dates (when the last of their actual highs was prevented from reaching record status) ...

1958 was done by Oct 10 1939.

1992 was blocked by May 23 1964.

2004 and 2014 were both blocked by Nov 25 1979.

The first year to go extinct was 1909 which was done on Feb 19, 1930. 1877 lasted to Feb 12, 1932. By the time 1958 failed to set a record, 1904 had also left the tables (out on Feb 7, 1938). 1869 (extinct Aug 1955), 1878 (extinct April 1946), and 1893 (extinct August 1943) were done also before 1958. From 1961 to 2017 all the other extinctions occurred (before 1912 yesterday). Many of them were around 1990 when this warmer climate era set in. The most recent extinction before 1912 was 1906 leaving the tables on May 18, 2017. 

These years with only one record left are in some danger of going extinct later in 2023 or in 2024 with only one record or a tied share of one record (which one goes first? lay your bets, it could be none of these if some year with several records runs into a hot spell that takes away consecutive records): 

1922 ___ 1.0 share of Apr 10 (86F) _ probably not this year

1942 ___ 1.0 share of Apr 30 (91F) _ closest call so far was 84F in 1985 (1942 broke 86F from 1941)

1957 ___ 1.0 share of June 17 (96F) _ although it broke 95F (1952) warmest since has been only 91F (1962 and 2017)

1943 ___ 0.5 share of June 25 (99F) _ tied with 1952 which has two other records 

1934 ___ 1.0 share of June 29 (101F) _ probably not in a lot of danger

1913 ___ 0.33 share of Aug 18 (94F) _ one of the weakest records in the books (1987, 2002 share)

2019 ___ 1.0 share of Oct 2 (93F) _ seems fairly safe, only one October day in 1941 was warmer

1897 ___ 1.0 share of Oct 16 (87F) _ brushed off 83s from 1958 and 1963. 

2003 ___ 1.0 share of Nov 3 (79F) _ closest approach since established was 74F in 2017. 

1879 ___ 1.0 share of Nov 12 (76F) 

1896 ___ 1.0 share of Nov 27 (72F)

1899 ___ 0.5 share of Dec 19 (58F) _ another weak record, shared with 1931 which has plenty of others

1965 ___ 1.0 share of Dec 31 (63F) _ has survived a number of close calls, 62F in 1992

1907 ___ 1.0 share of Jan 7 (64F)

1960 ___ 0.5 share of Feb 11 (65F) _ tied in 2009

1935 ___ 0.5 share of Mar 6 (68F) _ was tied by 2022 (which would not go extinct if this record fell in 2024)

(1914 has a count of 0.83 but that includes a two-way tie (95F Sep 22) and a three-way tie (94F Aug 19) so both would have to be broken). 

(1937 has a count of 1.0 but this involves two tied records so both of those, Jan 9 (64F tied 2008) and Dec 18 (also 64F tied 1984), would have to be broken). 

______________

Also of interest, the highest counts of records currently held are

9.17 2001

8.50 1991

8.00 1953

7.83 1990

7.58 1949

7.25 1931

7.08 1988

7.00 1998

6.83 1895 1966

6.50 1944

6.00 1916 1941 1946 2015

5.58 1933

5.00 1880 1881 1945 1977 1979

4.83 1955

4.50 2020

4.00 1915 1925 1927 1928 1948 1950 1963 2002

 

 

 

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

31 here as of 6AM.

[SnoSki14]

11 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Lay-up. Go warm 

90F a lock later this week. Ridiculously warm 

[nycwinter]

another winter morning in the city

[Will - Rutgers]

man two cool weekend days and then warm all week this is bullshit

i would like to speak to the manager of weather

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    60degs.(52/69) or +8.

Month to date is    54.6[+5.4].        Should be     57.5[+6.5] by the 16th.

Reached 60 here yesterday at midnight, 58 during day.

Today:     49-52, wind n. to s., m. sunny-some clouds, 40 tomorrow AM.

39*(41%RH) here at 7am.        46* at 11am.      49* at 1pm.      50* at 2pm.       Reached 52* at 2:30pm.       46* at 7pm.      45* at 10pm.

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

man two cool weekend days and then warm all week this is bullshit

i would like to speak to the manager of weather

Next weekend looks really warm 

[SACRUS]

Straddling the clouds to the south and clearing pressing from the north here in CNJ.  So far partly sunny. 

Low of 34 now to 44.

[SACRUS]

 

https://cdn.apwx.net/img/maps/us/weather/national/us-temps-f-1536x1024.jpg

 

[SACRUS]

Step up week 

low 50s today to  mid/upper 50s Easter Sunday to 60s Monday to 70s Tuesday  to 80s Wed to perhaps a stray 90 Thursday.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1991)
NYC: 90 (1991)
LGA: 89 (1991)

Lows:

EWR: 23 (1982)
NYC: 25 (1982)
LGA: 25 (1982)

 

Historical:

1919 - A tornado swarm in northern Texas resulted in the deaths of 64 persons. (David Ludlum)

1926 - The lightning-set oil depot fire near San Luis Obispo CA boiled over and engulfed 900 acres. Many tornado vortices resulted from the intense heat of the fire. One such tornado traveled 1000 yards, picked up a house and carried it 150 feet, killing the two occupants inside. (The Weather Channel)

1938: Snow began to fall over central Oklahoma during the previous evening and continued to this day. In Oklahoma City, several snowfall records for the month soon fell to the storm, including the record for most total snowfall during April. The Oklahoma City snowfall totals of 0.8 inches on the 7th and 3.3 inches on the 8th remain daily records. In fact, the 3.3 inches of snow on the 8th is the most ever to fall on any single April day. The 4.1 inch total for the month is still the largest April monthly snowfall total.

1973 - A severe storm brought high winds and heavy snow to Iowa. Belle Plain received 20 inches of snow, and 19 inches blanketed Dubuque, record totals for both locations for so late in the season. Snow drifts up to sixteen feet high closed highways. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A cold front crossing the Northern Plateau and the Northern Rocky Mountain Region produced high winds in northeastern Wyoming. Winds gusting to 69 mph at Sheridan WY downed power lines and caused some property damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered cold air into the north central U.S. The strong winds, gusting to 60 mph at Rapid City SD and Williston ND, reduced visibilities in blowing dust over the Dakotas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Two dozen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Phoenix AZ equalled their record for April of 104 degrees established just the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Twenty-two cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the eastern U.S. Freezing temperatures severely damaged peach and apple orchards in West Virginia, where prolonged mild weather since January had caused an early blooming of spring vegetation. State and Federal agencies estimated a 50 percent loss in production for peaches and "Delicious Red Apples". (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: A major F5 tornado struck western Jefferson County in Alabama leveling the communities of Oak Grove, Rock Creek, Edgewater, McDonald's Chapel, Sylvan Springs and Pratt City. The tornado lifted just two miles from downtown Birmingham. The twister had a track of 20 miles with the damage path averaging between ½ and ¾ of a mile in width. 34 people were killed, 221 injured and 1,000 homes destroyed.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1991)
NYC: 90 (1991)
LGA: 89 (1991)

Lows:

EWR: 23 (1982)
NYC: 25 (1982)
LGA: 25 (1982)

 

Historical:

1919 - A tornado swarm in northern Texas resulted in the deaths of 64 persons. (David Ludlum)

1926 - The lightning-set oil depot fire near San Luis Obispo CA boiled over and engulfed 900 acres. Many tornado vortices resulted from the intense heat of the fire. One such tornado traveled 1000 yards, picked up a house and carried it 150 feet, killing the two occupants inside. (The Weather Channel)

1938: Snow began to fall over central Oklahoma during the previous evening and continued to this day. In Oklahoma City, several snowfall records for the month soon fell to the storm, including the record for most total snowfall during April. The Oklahoma City snowfall totals of 0.8 inches on the 7th and 3.3 inches on the 8th remain daily records. In fact, the 3.3 inches of snow on the 8th is the most ever to fall on any single April day. The 4.1 inch total for the month is still the largest April monthly snowfall total.

1973 - A severe storm brought high winds and heavy snow to Iowa. Belle Plain received 20 inches of snow, and 19 inches blanketed Dubuque, record totals for both locations for so late in the season. Snow drifts up to sixteen feet high closed highways. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A cold front crossing the Northern Plateau and the Northern Rocky Mountain Region produced high winds in northeastern Wyoming. Winds gusting to 69 mph at Sheridan WY downed power lines and caused some property damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered cold air into the north central U.S. The strong winds, gusting to 60 mph at Rapid City SD and Williston ND, reduced visibilities in blowing dust over the Dakotas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Two dozen cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Phoenix AZ equalled their record for April of 104 degrees established just the previous day. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Twenty-two cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the eastern U.S. Freezing temperatures severely damaged peach and apple orchards in West Virginia, where prolonged mild weather since January had caused an early blooming of spring vegetation. State and Federal agencies estimated a 50 percent loss in production for peaches and "Delicious Red Apples". (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: A major F5 tornado struck western Jefferson County in Alabama leveling the communities of Oak Grove, Rock Creek, Edgewater, McDonald's Chapel, Sylvan Springs and Pratt City. The tornado lifted just two miles from downtown Birmingham. The twister had a track of 20 miles with the damage path averaging between ½ and ¾ of a mile in width. 34 people were killed, 221 injured and 1,000 homes destroyed.

This must have been when we had that April 1990 snowstorm!

And in 1991 this was the first of a record number 0f 90 degree days that was later tied in 1993!  It's unusual to see NYC as the only official local area reporting station hit 90 degrees!

 

1990 - Twenty-two cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the eastern U.S. Freezing temperatures severely damaged peach and apple orchards in West Virginia, where prolonged mild weather since January had caused an early blooming of spring vegetation. State and Federal agencies estimated a 50 percent loss in production for peaches and "Delicious Red Apples". (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This must have been when we had that April 1990 snowstorm!

And in 1991 this was the first of a record number 0f 90 degree days that was later tied in 1993!  It's unusual to see NYC as the only official local area reporting station hit 90 degrees!

 

1990 - Twenty-two cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the eastern U.S. Freezing temperatures severely damaged peach and apple orchards in West Virginia, where prolonged mild weather since January had caused an early blooming of spring vegetation. State and Federal agencies estimated a 50 percent loss in production for peaches and "Delicious Red Apples". (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

It was less than an inch in the metro

[donsutherland1]

New York City will record its lowest seasonal snowfall on record for the 2022-2023 snow season. Based on historic data (no measurable snowfall has fallen during the 4/9-30 period with a 30-year mean temperature of 55For above) and guidance, this is now the very likely outcome.

[lee59]

Chilly day today with a high here of 52, now down to 45.

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air returned to close the week. The cool weather will continue through tomorrow before another potentially impressive warmup develops. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures should be somewhat higher than they were today.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

In addition, given the forecast pattern and historical data, New York City has very likely seen 2022-2023 record the lowest seasonal snowfall on record with just 2.3" of snow. The old record of 2.8" was set during 1972-1973.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +33.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.276 today.

On April 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.937 (RMM). The April 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.866 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal).

 

[forkyfork]

On 4/4/2023 at 9:50 AM, bluewave said:

The GOA SSTs are mostly a function of Rossby waves being driven from the subtropical and tropical parts of the Pacific. So record SSTs to the south of that area are probably driving that process. Same goes for the increasing SE Ridge or WAR in our region. A 7° increase in the Gulf Stream off the Mid-Atlantic subtropics can cause an expansion of the subtropical ridge into our area. Notice how the models consistently underestimate the SE Ridge in the day 11-15 forecast. Also look back at winter forecasts for the US from all the private and public forecasters. The seasonal maps have underestimated the warmth in area. So we have to look into changes with the Gulf Stream we see a very anomalous 8 warmer than average winters in a row for the Northeast.

same theme all summer on the euro seasonal

 

[Roger Smith]

With more warmth appearing on the charts, I have taken my first graphic (days of 75+ April 1-15) and edited it to days of 80+ and continued that to end of the month. Daily records are in bold type. 

 1. ............................................ 83 1917 .............................................. 82 1978 ....................................................

 2. ...................................................................................80 1963 81 1967..............................................................

 3. ........................................................................................................................81 1981 ........................................

 4. .............80 1892.....................................................................................................................................................

 5. .................................................80 1928...................................................................................................................

 6. .................................................................................................................................................................. 80 2023.

 7. .....................................................89 1929 ...82 1942........................................ 87 1991...............92 2010...........

 8. .85 1871 .......................................88 1929 ...........83 1959 ..............................90 1991. 80 1999 80 2010 ........

 9. .83 1871 ..............................................................................................................86 1991....................82 2013........

10. .80 1871 .................................86 1922 ......................................................................................................................

11. ................ 78 1887 .................80 1922 ................ 84 1955 ........................................................... 81 2011 80 2017..

12. ...................................................................................................................90 1977.....80 1996.......................84 2023

13. .....................................................................81 1945 ..........82 1968.......(88 1977)............................82 2018. 90 2023  

14. ......80 1880 ..........................................(85 1941) 83 1945 ...............................................................................91 2023......

15. ...................................................84 1938 87 1941 ......83 1960.........................................82 2002 81 2003 80 2006 ....

16. ....................... 87 1896........................... 80 1941...................................82 1976.............92 2002.88 2003.88 2012 87 2017..

17. ........................88 1896................................................80 1959 ..............91 1976..............96 2002....................................

18. .......................90 1896................................................81 1963 86 1964 .96 1976................91 2002.....84 2008 ..............

19. .............81 1886.80 1891.80 1909 82 1914 81 1915.........86 1972 80 1973..92 1976.88.1985 84 1994 .89 2002 .85 2004.80 2019.

20. ......................................82 1915 83 1923.90 1927..85 1938 80 1941.82 1952 80 1963 89 1976............87 2005 83 2006 .........

21. ................................................................87 1923...81 1936....85 1957 ...............................83 1985..81 1996 ......................

22. .................81 1885,86......84 1902..........82 1926.... 80 1952 80 1960 .86 1962,1973....85 1977 85 1985..86 2001.82 2004..

23. ..................84 1886.........83 1902 ..........84 1925..................................83 1973 .81 1979,1990 .85 1996 80 2001..86 2007.........

24. ..................83 1886.......................................................80 1942.81 1957.....................81 1992 80 1994....87 2001 .80 2011..

25. .....80 1872 ......86 1895...82 1913..91 1915 .............86 1939 ....... 87 1960 82 1961 84 1962....82 1982 ............88 2009...

26. .....83 1872............................................80 1925.........84 1942................80 1969 821970....80 1985.................92 2009...

27. ..................................................92 1915............83 1935 ................91 1962 .84 1969 ...............91 1990........... 84 2009 ....

28. .80 1870........................80 1935 89 1938..84 1956 80 1957 89 1962.86 1969 80 1974 85 1983 82 1986.90 1990.80 2003.90 2009.85 2017,21.

29. ...................83 1888........82 1903........................81 1938 .......84 1951 .....80 1962. 89 1974..80 1983 ..................85 2017........

30. ...........................80 1901.82 1903.80 1910........86 1941 91 1942 .80 1944 .80 1965 .......84 1985..................80 2007 ....... 

________________________________________________________________

Based on temps at Toronto (90) and Providence RI (80), 22nd 1842 was possibly at least 85F. Flow was westerly.

Between the two record highs in 1915, 26th had a max of 72F. 

1896 was a year that could not hold on to significant heat wave records. May 9-11 (91, 92, 91) have all been overtaken as well. Then in August, 17th to 22nd lost all of these: 97, 95, 98, 94, 96, 93. The only record held is 72F on Nov 27, but 70 on Nov 17th and 69 on Nov 28 have also been lost. About half a dozen other less impressive records in Feb, June and Apr-May have also been lost. A shift of a few days in either direction, and many of those lost records would still be on the books. Another lost heat wave was 89F, 89F on May 2,3 1913. 

DISTRIBUTION OF 80+ DAYS IN APRIL 

1869-1900 (32 yr) _ 20

1901-1930 _________ 25

1931-1960 _________ 33

1961-1990 _________ 46

1991-2020 _________ 46

2021,22,23 __________ 5

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

35 down here in the pine barrens. Chilly. 

Edit: Down to 28 for a low at 6a. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Cooler air returned to close the week. The cool weather will continue through tomorrow before another potentially impressive warmup develops. Under partly sunny skies, temperatures should be somewhat higher than they were today.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If some of the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

In addition, given the forecast pattern and historical data, New York City has very likely seen 2022-2023 record the lowest seasonal snowfall on record with just 2.3" of snow. The old record of 2.8" was set during 1972-1973.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around March 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring.

The SOI was +33.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.276 today.

On April 6 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.937 (RMM). The April 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.866 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.0° (3.3° above normal).

 

Don, although it's not going to happen this year, I always consider 4/20 the end of measurable snowfall season because that's the latest we've had that (in 1983).  Three measurable snowfalls this late include 4/10/1996 (4-5 inches), 4/16/2014 (0.5-1 inch), 4/20/1983 (1.5-2 inches)

[lee59]

31 degrees here with a little frost

[ForestHillWx]

29 here; colder in the lower elevations per local wunderground numbers. 

Happy Easter!