April 2023

[Tekken_Guy]

Wasn't it supposed to hit 80 tomorrow?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Tekken_Guy said:

Wasn't it supposed to hit 80 tomorrow?

East winds.  Started showing up on models a couple days ago.

Meanwhile the Euro is showing a couple of wet solutions especially east of NYC for Sat night/Sun

[Tekken_Guy]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

East winds.  Started showing up on models a couple days ago.

Meanwhile the Euro is showing a couple of wet solutions especially east of NYC for Sat night/Sun

I'm starting to get the feeling we might not break the record for warmest April. Next week could shave 2-4 degrees off the average and tomorrow was supposed to provide a buffer.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be a warm day except along the immediate coastal plain. The temperature could reach the upper 70s and perhaps lower 80s tomorrow in southern New Jersey and Philadelphia and lower 70s in New York City. A more sustained cool period could develop during or just after the weekend and continue into the opening days of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was +2.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.955 today.

On April 18 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.764 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.697 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[canderson]

NYC’s forecast high today was 80 Monday.  Today it’s 62. Impressive change. 

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

NYC’s forecast high today was 80 Monday.  Today it’s 62. Impressive change. 

70 today

[canderson]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

70 today

NWS site says 62 for NYC. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Congrats NYC on the worst winter since records have been kept in 1869. Won't be official until Jul 1 but i think its safe to call it, ha

Right there with you, BDR made the list as well, and it's not even close. almost half the snowfall than the current record holder - 72/73 8.2"

 

22/23 - BDR 4.9", NYC 2.3" 

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Congrats NYC on the worst winter since records have been kept in 1869. Won't be official until Jul 1 but i think its safe to call it, ha

Right there with you, BDR made the list as well, and it's not even close. almost half the snowfall than the current record holder - 72/73 8.2"

 

22/23 - BDR 4.9", NYC 2.3" 

Hard to imagine anything worse than  01-02 and 11-12 but alas here we go....

[JustinRP37]

38 minutes ago, canderson said:

NWS site says 62 for NYC. 

It says 70 for me. Not sure what you are seeing or what zip code. But for Manhattan it is 70. 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Hard to imagine anything worse than  01-02 and 11-12 but alas here we go....

Super Nino next winter….97:98 repeat? 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Super Nino next winter….97:98 repeat? 

Could be.   Hopefully a 82-83 or 15-16 style Nino but who knows and the background state has warmed since those...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      57degs.(49/64) or -1.

Month to date is      59.0[+7.2].        Should be     58.4[+4.8] by the 29th.

Reached 60 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     64-69, wind e., variable clouds-increasing, 55 tomorrow AM.

Near Normal rest of month and a BN 1st Week of May:

52*(78%RH) here at 7am.        58* at 9am.       61* at Noon.    63* at 2pm.     64* at 3pm.      60* at 5pm.     58* at 6pm.

[Volcanic Winter]

Man, a shutout super Niño with wall to wall warmth and no snow would be absolutely intolerable following this past winter. For now I’m going to assume we’ll fare better than this year. I should say, for my sanity. 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging      57degs.(49/64) or -1.

Month to date is      59.0[+7.2].        Should be     58.4[+4.8] by the 29th.

Reached 60 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     64-69, wind e., variable clouds-increasing, 55 tomorrow AM.

Near Normal rest of month and a BN 1st Week of May:

52*(78%RH) here at 7am.        58* at 9am.       61* at Noon.    63* at 2pm. 

I put a dime that the next 8 days average +2 degrees above average (only based on persistence) 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 88 (1957)
NYC: 87 (1923)
LGA: 86 (1957)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1981)
NYC:  26 (1875)
LGA: 33 (1956)

Historical:

 

1885: A tornado struck the town of Denison, Texas in 1883 that destroyed a church. The congregation rebuilt the church. On this date, a second tornado destroyed the newly rebuilt church.

1958 - Portions of Montana were in the midst of a spring snowburst. Snowfall amounts ranged up to 55 inches at Red Lodge, 61 inches at Nye Mine, and 72 inches at Mystic Lake. (David Ludlum)

1967 - Severe thunderstorms spawned 48 tornadoes in the Upper Midwest. Hardest hit was northern Illinois where sixteen tornadoes touched down during the afternoon and evening hours causing fifty million dollars damage. On that Friday afternoon tornadoes struck Belvidere IL, and the Chicago suburb of Oak Lawn, killing 57 persons. (David Ludlum)

1980 - The temperature at International Falls MN hit 90 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Gulf of Mexico to New England and the Great Lakes Region, with twenty-nine cities reporting record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 82 degrees at Caribou ME, 94 degrees at Mobile AL, 95 degrees at Monroe LA, and 93 degrees at New Orleans LA, were records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - After having had just twelve rainouts in the previous twenty-six years at Dodger Stadium, a third day of heavy rain in southern California rained out a double-header at Dodger Stadium which had been scheduled due to rainouts the previous two days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1988: After having had just twelve rainouts in the previous twenty-six years at Dodger Stadium, the third day of heavy rain in southern California rained out a doubleheader at Dodger Stadium, which had been scheduled due to rainouts the previous two days.

1989 - The temperature at Las Animas, CO, soared to 100 degrees to establish a state record for April. Twenty-two cities in the central and southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Eight cities equalled or exceeded previous April records. (The Weather Channel) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail in Oklahoma, and also caused some flash flooding in the state. Thunderstorms over the Southern High Plains produced golf ball size hail at Roswell NM and El Paso TX. Easterly winds and temperatures near zero produced wind chill readings as cold as 50 degrees below zero for the spring festival (Piuraagiaqta) outdoor events at Barrow AK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2007 - The South Plains and Panhandle of West Texas were hit by an outbreak of severe thunderstorms. Between the hours of 5 and 6 pm, several thunderstorms developed across the western South Plains. Around 7 pm, a supercell produced a tornado which touched down around Fieldton (southwest of Olton) and then moved just south and east of Olton, doing damage to several structures and equipment. The thunderstorm continued to move northeast across northeast Lamb, northwest Hale, southeast Castro and southwest Swisher Counties, producing a long-lived tornado (along with hail up to the size of tennis balls). By 7:45 pm, the storm approached the town of Tulia in Swisher County. A tornado touchdown was reported in the town, causing major damage. The tornadic thunderstorm continued to move northeast across Swisher County over open country through about 8:30 pm. (NWS Lubbock, TX)

[Tekken_Guy]

5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging      57degs.(49/64) or -1.

Month to date is      59.0[+7.2].        Should be     58.4[+4.8] by the 29th.

Reached 60 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:     64-69, wind e., variable clouds-increasing, 55 tomorrow AM.

Near Normal rest of month and a BN 1st Week of May:

52*(78%RH) here at 7am.        58* at 9am.       61* at Noon.    63* at 2pm. 

I think you got that backwards. Next week will be the big cooldown and it returns to normal as May arrives.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy. There could be some fog and drizzle in coastal areas. Showers and perhaps thundershowers are possible tomorrow night into Sunday morning.

A sustained cool period will develop just after the weekend and continue into the opening days of May. The opening days of May could also see the first period of much above normal warmth develop in the Pacific Northwest. A cool period in the East is supported by the MJO's having moved into Phase 8, along with the development of strong Atlantic blocking. That blocking is forecast to fade during the first week of May leading to the possible development of a return of warmer conditions during the second week of the month. Given the timeframe involved, there remains considerable uncertainty beyond the first week of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -19.97 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.455 today.

On April 19 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.635 (RMM). The April 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.766 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[MJO812]

Greetings from the Catskills

 

Nice and cool up here

 

47 will be the low tonight 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Greetings from the Catskills

 

Nice and cool up here

 

47 will be the low tonight 

Several more freezes possible for the higher elevations next week.

 

[Tatamy]

Seems unusual to have a sea breeze this far inland however that is exactly what has occurred here today.  I reached a high of 78 at 4 PM and have now dropped back to 58.

[wishcast_hater]

Saturday night

Not happening


.

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Seems unusual to have a sea breeze this far inland however that is exactly what has occurred here today.  I reached a high of 78 at 4 PM and have now dropped back to 58.

Yep

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

Not happening


.

Eh I don't trust the nam

[SnoSki14]

21 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Super Nino next winter….97:98 repeat? 

There's no indication of a super nino. I doubt it goes beyond moderate 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging      56degs.(49/64) or -2.

Month to date is      59.1[+7.1].           Should be       58.2[+4.6] by the 30th.

Reached 64 here yesterday at 2pm.

Today:   66-71,  wind e. to se., variable clouds-increasing, rain by midnight-over by Sunday AM.

55*(90%RH) here at 7am.     60* at 9:30am.      64* at 11am.      Reached  65* at Noon.      60* at 6pm.

[The 4 Seasons]

On 4/21/2023 at 8:02 AM, Brian5671 said:

Hard to imagine anything worse than  01-02 and 11-12 but alas here we go....

I never thought id see a winter as bad as 01-02 in my life again at the time, this was about on par with that one in terms of snowfall.

[MJO812]

45 here in the Catskills

[canderson]

Last night’s fog had some cool atmospheric looks -  taken from our balcony overlooking Bryant Park. Hope the rain holds off mostly until midnight!

[SACRUS]

 

55, low level clouds slowly burning off but front approaching.  Some early sun before clouds and then front/rain arrive later this evening/tonight.  Clearing out Sun (4/23) and should be a very nice spring/weekend day.  Cooler overall Mon (4/24) - Sat (4/29).  Doesnt appear to be very wet but with cut off low and the ECin a general trough, there should be days with precip chances.  Looks like a moderating change towards the end of the first work week next month.