April 2023

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hearing thunder from the cell to my south

 

Coming directly for my backyard! We need the rain 

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Coming directly for my backyard! We need the rain 

Headed right for @winterwx21

[Allsnow]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Headed right for @winterwx21

Rain and thunder!!!

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Headed right for @winterwx21

Yep very dark sky to the south and I'm hearing a lot of thunder. Looking forward to getting some heavy rain. 

[BxEngine]

Can barely buy a cloud right now…

[Stormlover74]

Just some light rain. The heavy stuff is going to my west

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just some light rain. The heavy stuff is going to my west

Yep I was just gonna mention that. It weakened and the heaviest is going just a few miles to our west. Just some light to moderate rain here right now. I hear the thunder to the west. Hopefully we'll get some heavier rain later. We really need it. 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just some light rain. The heavy stuff is going to my west

 

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep I was just gonna mention that. It weakened and the heaviest is going just a few miles to my west. Just some light to moderate rain here right now. I hear the thunder to the west. Hopefully we'll get some heavier rain later. We really need it. 

Getting a decent downpour here 

[Rjay]

58 and pleasant 

[Allsnow]

Still raining here with more coming from the south 

[Allsnow]

MSP under a winter storm warning for 4-8. Winter won’t quit for them 

[Tatamy]

Just to keep things interesting we just received some pea size hail along with close in CTG lightning.

[MANDA]

Heaviest stuff is just west and southwest of me where they look to be getting drenched.  Had a heavy T-Shower and now just light rain that has yielded .30" so far.  I'll take it but wanting more!

[Tatamy]

Between cells currently.  1.20” on the day so far.

[snywx]

Much needed rain today

1.47” so far

 

[IrishRob17]

16 minutes ago, snywx said:

Much needed rain today

1.47” so far

 

It's missing me by a couple miles. Plenty of loud claps of thunder though. 0.00 so far. 

[Allsnow]

.20 

[Cfa]

0.01” lol. What a waste.

[Allsnow]

Over 3 inches for area in Mt laurel NJ. South jersey wins again 

[SACRUS]

From 77 to 63 winds around and out of the northeast.  Storms mostly missing me here.

[ForestHillWx]

Pouring in Chester. Lightening/thunder and flooding. Basement is taking on water. 

[Snowlover11]

not a drop here just been overcast and dark all day.

[winterwx21]

Just had a decent downpour. It all seems to be drifting more to the east now, so hopefully we'll get a good amount of rain this evening. 

[Roger Smith]

If the absolute dry spell ends today at NYC, then April 2-14 (13 days) is the longest stretch with zero total rainfall (or traces) in April since 2012 (15 days Apr 3-17, 2012) and counting those with some days in April, since 2015 with 23 days (Apr 23 to May 15, 2015). A slightly longer but similarly timed dry spell was 26 days from Apr 22 to May 17, 2001.

I find that about 20% of all Aprils have a ten-day absolute dry spell and another 15% have a ten-day or longer interval with less than 0.01" every two days. An example of the latter type occurred last year (Apr 20 to May 1, 2022 had .02" on Apr 26). 

The longest absolute dry spell within April was 20 days in 1942 (Apr 11 to Apr 30) and that dry spell added five more days May 1-5.  April 3 to 21 1976 (19 days) April 6 to 23 1977 (18 days) were second and third longest. Other years with a dry spell similar to this year would be 1968 (9th to 21st) and 1971 (8th to 20th), as well as 1910 (7th to 16th, but an earlier spell of 14 days March 21 to Apr 3 was separated from the second dry spell by only 0.19" of rain April 4-6, and in fact the total rainfall from March 8 to April 16 1910 was only 0.31" and this was quite a warm period too with some highs near 80 F. The very warm spell in mid-April of 1896 had a 13-day dry spell from April 8 to 20, then after 0.23" fell 21st-22nd, another dry spell ran from Apr 23 to May 2 and it stayed quite dry until a three-day heat wave in May, even after that normal amounts of rain only returned in very late stages of May. And in 1877 it was dry from 3rd to 17th (15 days) while 1887 matched this year (2nd to 14th). 

[Allsnow]

@Stormlover74 getting dumped on 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@Stormlover74 getting dumped on 

Still light here

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Still light here

Really? Radar looks good for you. 
 

 

Rain has now moved into ewr 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Really? Radar looks good for you. 
 

 

Rain has now moved into ewr 

It's coming down in buckets here now. Hopefully this downpour will hit Stormlover as it moves north. 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Really? Radar looks good for you. 
 

 

Rain has now moved into ewr 

It's picking up now

[donsutherland1]

Today was a variably cloudy and cooler day. Parts of the region saw some rain and even thunderstorms. Temperatures reached the lower and middle 70s in contrast to yesterday's upper 80s and lower 90s. Nevertheless, record heat persisted for another day across parts of Upstate New York, Vermont, and southern Canada. Numerous high temperature records were toppled in Ontario. Burlington reached 85°, which broke the daily mark of 82° from 2003.

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers. Readings will top out mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Next week could even see a day where readings struggle to get out of the 50s.

Overall, warmth appears likely to define April in much of the East. If the long-range guidance is accurate the first three weeks of the month could put April 2023 on a trajectory that could rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Afterward, the latest EPS weeklies suggest that the month could finish with near normal readings.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -9.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.558 today.

On April 13 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.863 (RMM). The April 12-adjusted amplitude was 2.005 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.6° (3.9° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.