allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Problem is one model jumps on board 3 more jump off. I think the problem is there are too many damn models we hedge our bets on… no one model is going to be right…. Stay tuned lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, allgame830 said: I think the problem is there are too many damn models we hedge our bets on… no one model is going to be right…. Stay tuned lol Tommor night at this time. Hopefully lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, allgame830 said: I think the problem is there are too many damn models we hedge our bets on… no one model is going to be right…. Stay tuned lol No consistency from any of them...complicated setup blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: You just continue to throw the euro run out? Lol Not throwing it out but it’s has limited support. If we actually had a suite where at least two models showed something promising I’d feel more hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Cmc looks decent but I wonder how much of that is the norlun feature, the low still looks pretty Far East. As we saw on 2/8/13 you can get pretty big snows with the surface low way east if you have completed the entire capture and phase...NYC was snowing heavily at 06Z that night with the SFC low way east. I would not exactly expect that we are going to get that scenario though http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2013/us0209.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: No consistency from any of them...complicated setup blah blah blah Right there isn’t any consistency at all… at least in the day or so all over the place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 If the 0Z euro holds and we have cmc/euro in our favor that wouldn’t be a bad combo. Still a tricky setup it seems for the models and I guess I’m not that optimistic due to the overall setup and how perfect this needs to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 GEFS Mean is further west than the op with several members near LI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Right there isn’t any consistency at all… at least in the day or so all over the place Well to be honest they're consistent in the areas that are going to get slammed. As always seems to be the case we're on the fringe so it's nothing up to a foot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: If the 0Z euro holds and we have cmc/euro in our favor that wouldn’t be a bad combo. Still a tricky setup it seems for the models and I guess I’m not that optimistic due to the overall setup and how perfect this needs to go. Yea. I kind of feel the 0z euro holding sort of a life or death thing now. I've seen this movie before, and if we lose the euro tonight, it's pretty much over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Good be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 12, 2023 Author Share Posted March 12, 2023 Precip isn’t the problem. Track isn’t the problem. The airmass sucks. Plain and simple. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, KeithB said: Yea. I kind of feel the 0z euro holding sort of a life or death thing now. I've seen this movie before, and if we lose the euro tonight, it's pretty much over This is a very complex setup and tiny changes in where/if/when phasing occurs, amplitude of the trough etc can have dramatic effects so we’re not “out” of it until tomorrow night I’d say if it’s not looking favorable. That said the odds are way higher for a major impact in places like the Catskills and Berkshires than us near the coast. We need way more to go right. Expect a washout but if we roll snake eyes somehow it can be a good outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Precip isn’t the problem. Track isn’t the problem. The airmass sucks. Plain and simple. This 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Precip isn’t the problem. Track isn’t the problem. The airmass sucks. Plain and simple. This is oversimplified. The right track and right dynamics would affect the outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 UKMET bomb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 UKMET back to being hilarious. Has 12" or nearly in NYC and nothing in Hartford/Springfield because of downslope. Boston gets slushy 1-2" at the end. I can't imagine how SNE would melt down from that (there'd be little to melt anyway). I'd pay big bucks to see that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 I guess people may come off the ledge since the Ukie flip flopped again but for the better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, mannynyc said: UKMET bomb Now this is finally getting interesting for NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: Now this is finally getting interesting for NYC. If we can get the Euro to show that as well for a couple runs, maybe we're onto something. Trend does seem to be to develop that offshore low sooner which brings colder air in and heavy snow banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If we can get the Euro to show that as well for a couple runs, maybe we're onto something. Trend does seem to be to develop that offshore low sooner which brings colder air in and heavy snow banding. The three best models showing significant impacts tonight would be quite welcome. Let's see. Euro has has decent runs as of late... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I guess people may come off the ledge since the Ukie flip flopped again but for the better. The Tobin would have a busy night if the Ukie was trusted. If the euro shows this again we in bidnis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: UKMET back to being hilarious. Has 12" or nearly in NYC and nothing in Hartford/Springfield because of downslope. Boston gets slushy 1-2" at the end. I can't imagine how SNE would melt down from that (there'd be little to melt anyway). I'd pay big bucks to see that. It was sort of 00Z NAM/GFSish at 12Z...it tried to do it again but did it less and consolidated better which is what made the difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 12 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: I guess people may come off the ledge since the Ukie flip flopped again but for the better. I’m sorta off the ledge because of the cmc. The Ukie I don’t take too seriously lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Best CMC run in 2 days... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 52 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I think the problem is there are too many damn models we hedge our bets on… no one model is going to be right…. Stay tuned lol From my experience when dealing with a storm that's going to impact the entire subforum with snow, you see a clear signal on the vast majority of the models by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Ukie is like 33 at the surface 12z Tuesday. That degree or two is all the difference 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Ukie is like 33 at the surface 12z Tuesday. That degree or two is all the difference UK is often slightly too warm at the surface. The key is consolidating the offshore low early and turning the flow around to NE to push the warm maritime crap away and make us benefit from crashing heights/dynamics. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: UK is often slightly too warm at the surface. The key is consolidating the offshore low early and turning the flow around to NE to push the warm maritime crap away and make us benefit from crashing heights/dynamics. So we don’t want a double low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: UKMET back to being hilarious. Has 12" or nearly in NYC and nothing in Hartford/Springfield because of downslope. Boston gets slushy 1-2" at the end. I can't imagine how SNE would melt down from that (there'd be little to melt anyway). I'd pay big bucks to see that. Like 4" qpf for us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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