8611Blizz Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: That’s a pretty bold call at this juncture I think. Some of these model runs have even places like Boston and Foxboro getting buried. Little early to Be confidently broadcasting mostly rain (even though I think that is probably end result) True but if you look at the map above I find that map extremely bold also. keep in mind these are not forecasts (as the tv mets say) just what the midels are showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Looks like 18-20 on my head. Not buying it. It’s a 10 to 1 map too. In reality that’s prob more like 10-15” for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The lack of low level barocilinic focus is really more to do with why we are observing run-to-run inconsistency with low placement. If the former were more focused, it would create height falls from upward vertical motion fields over top... focusing the models into a given area more consitently. The 00z runs really showed more of this, with a "new" 500 mb center opening up around the outer/lower Cape region, while the N/stream 'lobe' was still in the process of sliding under LI. These 12z runs seems to have lost that orderly relay comparing it to the 00z suite. Little more background on how it works: The sfc to 800 mb layer needs to have an axis where along it there is some 10C variation in temperature/DP ... compressed to just 10's of mile either side. Usually that "thermal compression" resides in the vicinity of Cape May NJ, to eastern LI ... out toward the Island S of Cape Cod. That is axis has a viscosity differential where amid the cold side, the air density/stability doesn't rise. The opposite is true amid the warm side. Why is that important? As a S/W wind acceleration aloft begins to approaching a given region, it triggers air to start moving toward the axis of the jet max from underneath. We refer to that as "restoring," or in flowing wind. As this in flowing lighter less dense air encounters the denser air along the interface of the axis, it is force upward.. That upward motion lowers the surface pressure beneath. If one is following this... they may already see that a more defined axis would turn the air skyward more proficiently. If that forced rising air has higher DP content, that turns into buoyancy by "latent heat of condensation" ... clouds fanning out explosively on satellite..etc, "baroclinic leafing" behavior... etc. This feeds back in lowering the pressure more... This entire situation lacks that thermal compression wall/gradient along a very well defined axis... It's causing these physics to really fractal place the low out around where ever quantum mechanics happens to choose the 'chimney' of rising air. The mid level jet mechanics are going to induce an upward vertical motion ... but that is missing some mass/buoyancy input from below due to said axis being rather amorphously defined in this particular case. This winter ...now early spring ... it's just been excruciating getting cold in sufficient amounts and it come back to bite this ..really beautiful deep layer evolution right in the ass. I'm just describing what is going on - I'm not saying this event wont' snow by the way. ha A fantastic explanation. Much appreciated John. Thank-you If members just read your posts they could learn meteorology without even taking a course. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think your area looks pretty good but not as safe as Litchfield county or ORH county. As long as the low doesn’t sneak up to like GON area, I think you’ll be fine. That was before the euro came out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: That was before the euro came out. Great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we need a more wholesale shift east I think for inside of 128 to see mostly snow. They probably get in on some good heavy snow bands on these cape solutions but not before a lot of rain first. I'd push that out to 495. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s a 10 to 1 map too. In reality that’s prob more like 10-15” for us. Just now, moneypitmike said: I'd push that out to 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 EPS looks near ack to in between HYA and CHH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The CONUS WV shows the ULL system in real-time. Compare where the models initialize that will give a good indication of how, what but won't answer to where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That was before the euro came out. Euro doesn’t really sway my thinking that much. The IVT tug is something to keep an eye on, but even those solutions are trying to reconsolidate to the east…my gut says that happens a bit faster given the explosive height falls. Hopefully we keep the southern stream robust enough that we don’t need to worry about lows over ORH anymore like we were seeing on some previous runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Monday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 3am. Patchy freezing fog after 3am. Low around 32. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible. Tuesday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy freezing fog. High near 32. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100% 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Looks like 18-20 on my head. Not buying it. Looks like 4-5" up my way at 10:1 ratio. Fringe of the storm, full daylight, mid-March - maybe 5:1 with little accum except on the old snow. We've already reached the full-season snowfall, so I can't complain. (Though I may, anyway.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks near ack to in between HYA and CHH. At least the OP looks on the western envelope…it’s still a possibility but most of those lows are further east and south at their furthest point NW before rotating back east…I’m hoping that means the OP run will regress back toward that next cycle like we’ve often seen the past couple days whenever we get a westward OP run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looks near ack to in between HYA and CHH. More west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 EPS individuals .. all now east of ORH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Several model runs to go to figure it all out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Might start hearing the coveted B word. As it occludes it is a warm core Winter Hurricane. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 That's a nice look on the EPS overall. Still worried about some warming initially here a bit farther south but can't complain much. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That's a nice look on the EPS overall. Still worried about some warming initially here a bit farther south but can't complain much. Seeing the ensemble clusters made me feel somewhat better. OP is def on the northwestern 10% of those members. I also like how the trend on the EPS was to rotate it back ESE a bit faster. They really aren’t gaining much latitude north of CHH now. Thats not only good for limiting some of the warming, but it keeps much if area under favorable midlevel dynamics longer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: That's a nice look on the EPS overall. Still worried about some warming initially here a bit farther south but can't complain much. ya best EPS run yet for much of CT by far.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 EPS mean 12z snowfall 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Seeing the ensemble clusters made me feel somewhat better. OP is def on the northwestern 10% of those members. I also like how the trend on the EPS was to rotate it back ESE a bit faster. They really aren’t gaining much latitude north of CHH now. Thats not only good for limiting some of the warming, but it keeps much if area under favorable midlevel dynamics longer. High res op run may be picking up on some cyclogenesis along the inverted trough a bit better than the coarser ensembles but it is nice to see things consolidate pretty quickly. The 12z Euro soundings were pretty warm here in the BL. Hopefully we can work on that a bit in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro doesn’t really sway my thinking that much. The IVT tug is something to keep an eye on, but even those solutions are trying to reconsolidate to the east…my gut says that happens a bit faster given the explosive height falls. Hopefully we keep the southern stream robust enough that we don’t need to worry about lows over ORH anymore like we were seeing on some previous runs. Yeah he’ll do well I think. My comment was more on whether the stupid inv look happens and keeps boundary layer more easterly. Hopefully we can get that srn vort To help a bit more. Explosive height falls as you said, but I’d like limit that erly flow as much as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: ya best EPS run yet for much of CT by far.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 29 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Would the mesos be more useful than the globals given this condition? Not necessarily ... the lack of lower focusing b-clinic field is endemic to all modeling. It's not like it's there, but the globals just can't see it. It's really not there in either case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: EPS mean 12z snowfall EPS mean qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, CT Rain said: High res op run may be picking up on some cyclogenesis along the inverted trough a bit better than the coarser ensembles but it is nice to see things consolidate pretty quickly. The 12z Euro soundings were pretty warm here in the BL. Hopefully we can work on that a bit in later runs. Yeah let’s cut that weenie low on the western end of that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Nudity there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: EPS mean 12z snowfall Not that it really merits saying.....congrats, Pete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack66 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 EPS individuals .. all now east of ORH What site did you get this from? Great in close view of the individual members. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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