8611Blizz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 then it backs up... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not the worst think in the world ro be reliant on less proficient phasing at day 5. That’s my take too. It’s amp happy all the time at these lead times. It could be correct, but at this lead time I’m thinking no. Look at what it’s doing now for Friday…this unfortunately has miles to go before we see the real solution. And we were due for a shit run anyway…should be a few more to come too. Just another run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s my take too. It’s amp happy all the time at these lead times. It could be correct, but at this lead time I’m thinking no. Look at what it’s doing now for Friday…this unfortunately has miles to go before we see the real solution. And we were due for a shit run anyway…should be a few more to come too. Just another run at this point. A low in central Mass isn’t what we want to see if looking for snow, there’s no way around it. However it could be wrong, plenty of time for changes 5 days out. It’s a possible solution for sure, but if we get a high to the north to start building in that would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s my take too. It’s amp happy all the time at these lead times. It could be correct, but at this lead time I’m thinking no. Look at what it’s doing now for Friday…this unfortunately has miles to go before we see the real solution. And we were due for a shit run anyway…should be a few more to come too. Just another run at this point. I was wondering if having if a bit more beefy for Saturday would have helped Tuesday, but guess not...ultimate FU run to have confluence block the first system, then have it high tail it out in time for a rain bomb 2-3 days later. I still refuse to believe that happens, but if there were ever a winter to squander two periods of major blocking, it's this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Are there any Euro snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Once again, GFS-GEM-Euro equally weighted blend looks better than any of them individually. An intense version of that would be quite productive. Think the blended track would be ideal for most. I suppose it's usually the case that one model wins out over the others, but maybe in this case they would all move to a compromise solution with track across the benchmark and into western Gulf of Maine. Let it loop or stall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: Damn, 30 inches in western mass. It looks like whoever is NW of the rain snow line is going to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 30 minutes ago, George001 said: Damn, 30 inches in western mass. It looks like whoever is NW of the rain snow line is going to get buried. I like from my area back to ORH for best snows...obviously ORH the most, but as far as lower terrain, I like my spot. I call BS on EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 EPS captures south of ACK and crawls up over cape. Whiff off of table 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS is in between 12z and 18z....more amped than 12z, but less than 18z. Looks more amped to me than both 12 and 18z on just about every panel at the sfc on wxbell. Spread looks more NW as well 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Biggest take away is how much more intense the EPS has grown with this signal....more agreement on the capture and tug, but the spread is how quickly....some members over e MA, some over cape and some east. There are more of e MA now bc we have greater agreement on the capture. I think the ACK group is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Looks more amped to me than both 12 and 18z on just about every panel at the sfc on wxbell. Spread looks more NW as well I deleted that. Its about where it captures....this run is deeper...we have lost the members that didn't phase, so the mean is NW. Its going to come down to where it turns N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I deleted that. Its about where it captures....this run is deeper...we have lost the members that didn't phase, so the mean is NW. Its going to come down to where it turns N. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Coming to a consensus on a stall capture near cape IMO....increasing consensus on this capture scenario is going to cause more members to turn into e MA, at least initially. It could ultimately be a trend towards rain....sure, but I don't think it is. JMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I deleted that. Its about where it captures....this run is deeper...we have lost the members that didn't phase, so the mean is NW. Its going to come down to where it turns N. yeah i can definitely see that at H5/vort maps and the run change. We also lost some of those very far W members at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: yeah i can definitely see that at H5/vort maps and the run change. We also lost some of those very far W members at 18z I feel very good about this for most areas just off of the coast. I'm sure the usuals like scooter, Ryan and pickles will wake up and have this place like a morgue, but I am very intrigued. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel very good about this most areas just off of the coast. i guess that would include me but i think odds are highly stacked right now id lean heavily wet vs. white, for here...but im not saying its out of the question just the more unlikely scenario given the circumstances. Lot of time to go though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: i guess that would include me but i think odds are highly stacked right now id lean heavily wet vs. white, for here...but im not saying its out of the question just the more unlikely scenario given the circumstances. Lot of time to go though. Well, there is a reason I don't do first call until 3 days out. No reason this can't follow the theme of the winter and rain on us...I'm just trusting my instincts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, there is a reason I don't do first call until 3 days out. No reason this can't follow the theme of the winter and rain on us...I'm just trusting my instincts here. yeah ive been obsessing over the models all day long and its easy to forget its pretty much right at D5/120hrs out still. I dont think weve ever put out a call >72 hrs except for Dec 2020 when it was about 4/4.5 days because of how strong the consensus was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Congrats Catskills 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS captures south of ACK and crawls up over cape. Whiff off of table That’s the track we outlined . Hammertime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That’s the track we outlined I see what Scott is saying...its precarious and it's easy to favor rain right now. If it looks like this tomorrow, then I will back off for first call. But I don't think it will look this dire...I think the capture will tick later and perhaps a less proficient phase. I would rather deal with this, then have the rug swept out to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I see what Scott is saying...its precarious and it's easy to favor rain right now. If it looks like this tomorrow, then I will back off for first call. But I don't think it will look this dire...I think the capture will tick later and perhaps a less proficient phase. I would rather deal with this, then have the rug swept out to the east. Yeah no spiked balls yet to be sure. But good Sunkist vibes are flowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Overnight consensus we should made sure our toilets aren’t clogged so we are able to flush this turd down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Overnight consensus we should made sure our toilets aren’t clogged so we are able to flush this turd down! LOL You know damn well if all models were locked on a HECS, you'd be waiting for the other shoe to drop because its day 4. No way guidance has a process as intricate as this capture nailed down at 84-120 hours out. Changes coming.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Overnight consensus we should made sure our toilets aren’t clogged so we are able to flush this turd down!Pack it in. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: LOL You know damn well if all models were locked on a HECS, you'd be waiting for the other shoe to drop because its day 4. No way guidance has a process as intricate as this capture nailed down at 84-120 hours out. Changes coming.... 6z gfs says congrats 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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