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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket


Ginx snewx
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not the worst think in the world ro be reliant on less proficient phasing at day 5.

That’s my take too. It’s amp happy all the time at these lead times. It could be correct, but at this lead time I’m thinking no.
 

Look at what it’s doing now for Friday…this unfortunately has miles to go before we see the real solution. And we were due for a shit run anyway…should be a few more to come too. 
 

Just another run at this point. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s my take too. It’s amp happy all the time at these lead times. It could be correct, but at this lead time I’m thinking no.
 

Look at what it’s doing now for Friday…this unfortunately has miles to go before we see the real solution. And we were due for a shit run anyway…should be a few more to come too. 
 

Just another run at this point. 

A low in central Mass isn’t what we want to see if looking for snow, there’s no way around it. However it could be wrong, plenty of time for changes 5 days out. It’s a possible solution for sure, but if we get a high to the north to start building in that would help.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s my take too. It’s amp happy all the time at these lead times. It could be correct, but at this lead time I’m thinking no.
 

Look at what it’s doing now for Friday…this unfortunately has miles to go before we see the real solution. And we were due for a shit run anyway…should be a few more to come too. 
 

Just another run at this point. 

I was wondering if having if a bit more beefy for Saturday would have helped Tuesday, but guess not...ultimate FU run to have confluence block the first system, then have it high tail it out in time for a rain bomb 2-3 days later. I still refuse to believe that happens, but if there were ever a winter to squander two periods of major blocking, it's this season.

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Once again, GFS-GEM-Euro equally weighted blend looks better than any of them individually. An intense version of that would be quite productive. Think the blended track would be ideal for most. I suppose it's usually the case that one model wins out over the others, but maybe in this case they would all move to a compromise solution with track across the benchmark and into western Gulf of Maine. Let it loop or stall there. 

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Biggest take away is how much more intense the EPS has grown with this signal....more agreement on the capture and tug, but the spread is how quickly....some members over e MA, some over cape and some east. There are more of e MA now bc we have greater agreement on the capture. I think the ACK group is right.

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks more amped to me than both 12 and 18z on just about every panel at the sfc on wxbell. Spread looks more NW as well

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-mslp-8795200.thumb.png.77ae612ee1fa92bff14e13bfc7b59c83.png905269016_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-mslp-8795200(1).thumb.png.9835163d8f010612c163f94df589ae8a.png1577857998_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-mslp_with_low_locs-8795200(1).thumb.png.a0d6d5ce7ea40d92b49680a4500eb3c0.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-mslp_with_low_locs-8795200.thumb.png.23f8ec426a081b8d56cb4800730e0c49.png

 

I deleted that. Its about where it captures....this run is deeper...we have lost the members that didn't phase, so the mean is NW. Its going to come down to where it turns N.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I deleted that. Its about where it captures....this run is deeper...we have lost the members that didn't phase, so the mean is NW. Its going to come down to where it turns N.

yeah i can definitely see that at H5/vort maps and the run change. 

We also lost some of those very far W members at 18z

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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yeah i can definitely see that at H5/vort maps and the run change. 

We also lost some of those very far W members at 18z

I feel very good about this for most areas just off of the coast.

I'm sure the usuals like scooter,  Ryan and pickles will wake up and have this place like a morgue, but I am very intrigued.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel very good about this most areas just off of the coast.

i guess that would include me but i think odds are highly stacked right now id lean heavily wet vs. white, for here...but im not saying its out of the question just the more unlikely scenario given the circumstances. Lot of time to go though. 

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7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i guess that would include me but i think odds are highly stacked right now id lean heavily wet vs. white, for here...but im not saying its out of the question just the more unlikely scenario given the circumstances. Lot of time to go though. 

Well, there is a reason I don't do first call until 3 days out. No reason this can't follow the theme of the winter and rain on us...I'm just trusting my instincts here.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there is a reason I don't do first call until 3 days out. No reason this can't follow the theme of the winter and rain on us...I'm just trusting my instincts here.

yeah ive been obsessing over the models all day long and its easy to forget its pretty much right at D5/120hrs out still. 

I dont think weve ever put out a call >72 hrs except for Dec 2020 when it was about 4/4.5 days because of how strong the consensus was

 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s the track we outlined 

I see what Scott is saying...its precarious and it's easy to favor rain right now. If it looks like this tomorrow, then I will back off for first call. But I don't think it will look this dire...I think the capture will tick later and perhaps a less proficient phase. I would rather deal with this, then have the rug swept out to the east.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see what Scott is saying...its precarious and it's easy to favor rain right now. If it looks like this tomorrow, then I will back off for first call. But I don't think it will look this dire...I think the capture will tick later and perhaps a less proficient phase. I would rather deal with this, then have the rug swept out to the east.

Yeah no spiked balls yet to be sure. But good Sunkist vibes are flowing 

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14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Overnight consensus we should made sure our toilets aren’t clogged so we are able to flush this turd down!

LOL You know damn well if all models were locked on a HECS, you'd be waiting for the other shoe to drop because its day 4. No way guidance has a process as intricate as this capture nailed down at 84-120 hours out. Changes coming....

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

LOL You know damn well if all models were locked on a HECS, you'd be waiting for the other shoe to drop because its day 4. No way guidance has a process as intricate as this capture nailed down at 84-120 hours out. Changes coming....

6z gfs says congrats

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