Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...

[Heisy]

Each run after last nights 00z killer has trended worst…certainly seems like a trend to me



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Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea.

I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go…


It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea.

I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go…


It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response.

12z looked great today, though. not seeing the issue there

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We remain optimistic , let’s see what 0z eps does 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Why bother…it won’t be any different than every other storm this season. We might as well just shut down the board. 

No changes 

[Roger Smith]

This could be the most important 00z model run of the lifetimes of anyone born since 11 p.m. Friday.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Look at last nights run with PNA pushing towards the Idaho sweet spot vs latest 18z. The 6z eps this morning ticked negatively as well I just left it out. If that trend continues I wouldn’t be shocked if this ULL closes off and shoots across PA (depending on its initial latitude) and straight out to sea.

I’m rooting for a MECS/HECS as much as the next guy, trust me on that one, but these aren’t trends I’d like to see personally. Here’s to a good 00z, long way to go…


It’s just not a coincidence we’re seeing a weaker wave run after run today on the EPS with this PNA response.

12z reduced the huggers/inland runners so not all bad. I don’t think we need a stout +pna either…but yes that’s a pna shift today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

12z reduced the huggers/inland runners so not all bad. I don’t think we need a stout +pna either…but yes that’s a pna shift today.

I think we table the HECS deal if this trend doesn't reverse by tomorrow. These death spiral medium range trends this year never end well...especially ones involving western heights.

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

We remain optimistic , let’s see what 0z eps does 

Careful, optimism is highly triggering. You keep that glass half empty at all times.

[brooklynwx99]

FWIW the ICON made a really nice improvement with the PNA 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we table the HECS deal if this trend doesn't reverse by tomorrow. These death spiral medium range trends this year never end well...especially ones involving western heights.

Yeah, feels like in any season if you start seeing the medium range become more pedestrian then its over. Likely because HECS don’t grow on trees too… they like to fail in the mid-range. But hopefully it at least leads to a trackable event.

[George001]

Looks like some big changes on the gfs, I can’t really tell if they are good or bad though

[kdxken]

26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, feels like in any season if you start seeing the medium range become more pedestrian then its over. Likely because HECS don’t grow on trees too… they like to fail in the mid-range. But hopefully it at least leads to a trackable event.

No thanks, go big or go home.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, George001 said:

Looks like some big changes on the gfs, I can’t really tell if they are good or bad though

I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol

they were good, just not enough. GFS has been absolutely lost with this setup, though

[George001]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol

Low is way north, over central Long Island. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll wager a guess considering the silence...lol

Looks like an EMA special. Congrats. 

[George001]

Wait a sec it looks really good at hour 150

[George001]

Not a huge storm but better than 18z, good start to the 0z suite.

[Heisy]

Canadian looked better early on but the wave on its heels ended that…



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[Ji]

Rays blog killed it

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[Ji]

There goes my chase trip. Thanks tip heisy and ray

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[weathafella]

I’m telling you…1956 had the initial quick hitting critter followed by the big boy loosely similar to the GFS.  I remember the 4-6 on Friday and the feet Sunday afternoon through Monday in 56.

[Ji]

I’m telling you…1956 had the initial quick hitting critter followed by the big boy loosely similar to the GFS.  I remember the 4-6 on Friday and the feet Sunday afternoon through Monday in 56.

Cmc gets you

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[Thunderblizzard]

0z UKMET is just north of Bermuda at hour 144.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

14 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

0z UKMET is just north of Bermuda at hour 144.

I take it that 750 miles se of benchmark is not good , thankfully it’s on an island . 
 

Gfs looked good enough for me , 6-12 on weekend and then a slow crawling coastal two days later (which verbatim is a tad too mild for E mass but couldn’t really care )

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

0z UKMET is just north of Bermuda at hour 144.

Crazy uncle always been flighty as hell

[Henry's Weather]

"The perfect storm at day 7 hasn't been reproduced in the past few hours! How could this happen? Who could see this coming?"

Might be falling on deaf ears, but its same same. Damn. Playbook. Every time. I guess people like the ups and downs? Or they truly just can't see or understand that most modeled snowstorms don't come true.

If it happens, cool. **It looks like a conducive synoptic-scale pattern for a chance of snow.** Maybe this is like telling people to not be heartbroken over sports since they don't matter. 

[jaf]

10 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

0z UKMET is just north of Bermuda at hour 144.

Didn't it give us like 8 feet of snow at 12z?

[Heisy]

There goes my chase trip. Thanks tip heisy and ray

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I still got my bags packed, waiting on the 00z run to confirm


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[40/70 Benchmark]

GEFS look good