ORH_wxman Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Still a good run for SNE too? He’s in SE MA so for us over the interior, we don’t count. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Still a good run for SNE too? Those maps are a lot snowier than the ones on tropical tidbits. Regardless, looks really good at h5. The key takeaway this far out is we have an active period coming up with multiple chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 I don't even know what's being discussed in here. I don't see a discrete signal on a specific 1-2 day period. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't even know what's being discussed in here. I don't see a discrete signal on a specific 1-2 day period. Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't even know what's being discussed in here. I don't see a discrete signal on a specific 1-2 day period. Pretty much. It’s a couple of sigmas over like a 5 day period. The treat that produces this run is literally day 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 21 minutes ago, DJln491 said: Something’s brewing Beer is 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Still a good run for SNE too? That’s kind of trending towards an 1888 look if you crane your neck . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal. I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event. The EPS was a bit more classic looking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 10 minutes ago, George001 said: Those maps are a lot snowier than the ones on tropical tidbits. Regardless, looks really good at h5. The key takeaway this far out is we have an active period coming up with multiple chances. Thats out to March 16th...may not all be for this weekends storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal. I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event. The EPS was a bit more classic looking. yeah, the GFS doesn’t buckle that ULL off the BC coast, it’s an outlier in that regard. pretty much every other model does. it has a fundamentally different evolution 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal. I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event. The EPS was a bit more classic looking. so only a week away? what can go right? 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal. I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event. The EPS was a bit more classic looking. Yeah... again - I am reluctant to buy into any one GFS run more so than usual for the time range in question ( which at D6.5 isn't a whole helluva lot of buy in, anyway! ) But the reasons why, the GFS has a progressivity bias that grows out in time. It's noted by NCEP as something future versions will ( hopefully) address. Well, the pattern we are heading into is inherently slowing down with less of that flow bias - that sort of isolates the GFS as having certain challenges handling this particular pattern migration. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: so only a week away? what can go right? It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: so only a week away? what can go right? Yeah March 10-15 thread period is about a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... again - I am reluctant to buy into any one GFS run more so than usual for the time range in question ( which at D6.5 isn't a whole helluva lot of buy in, anyway! ) But the reasons why, the GFS has a progressivity bias that grows out in time. It's noted by NCEP as something future versions will ( hopefully) address. Well, the pattern we are heading into is inherently slowing down with less of that flow bias - that sort of isolates the GFS as having certain challenges handling this particular pattern migration. Yeah I would lean EPS. I was just noting what the gfs was doing. Still feels light years away lol. Who knows what will happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: so only a week away? what can go right? Even so, Probably your best shot of season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead? just whine 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead? And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead? Clicks on thread titled something about a signal emerging March 10-15. Then seems surprised or confused that there’s discussion in that thread about that time frame. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead? rain and wind potential 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 it's not always about snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one Delegate responsibilities to trusted employees!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 See ... another aspect that is quite abstract that I'm toying around with in mind ... this signaled period appears to be dumping ( suggesting it will ...) a ton of mechanical wave space right into the seam of the seasonal slow down and wave shrinkage. It sort of is like ally-oop timing with that... The other side of this thing ( that 4 or so day...) we don't really go back to the longer wave lengths/higher gradient construct nearly as much. We probably enter seeing the seasonal evacuation. Relax! it won't be an instant thing. There could certainly be other thing trackable - but we should see a definitive difference in the wave space behavior. Big March events in the past did that same thing. They were stranded big signaled deals that were sort of 'left to their own devices' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Clicks on thread titled something about a signal emerging March 10-15. Then seems surprised or confused that there’s discussion in that thread about that time frame. I see people cranking to a modeled 7 day blizzard and i get lost. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Please tell me how this will be any different then the 10x's we've seen this modeled this "winter" 2 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one We are likely already snowing by 10AM Saturday. It’s a matter now of how much and how long . Is it 24 hours or 48 hours? 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We are likely already snowing by 10AM Saturday. It’s a matter now of how much and how long . Is it 24 hours or 48 hours? How long did it snow in 1888 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: rain and wind potential Oh ok…you deff have rain and wind potential so lets focus on that, try to will it to happen, so WOR gets KU snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: How long did it snow in 1888 Longer than this will. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh ok…you deff have rain and wind potential so lets focus on that, try to will it to happen, so WOR gets KU snows. Storms of yore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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