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Impressive signal is just beginning emerge in actual guidance, Mar 10 -15th...


Typhoon Tip
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The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal.  I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event.  The EPS was a bit more classic looking.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal.  I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event.  The EPS was a bit more classic looking.

yeah, the GFS doesn’t buckle that ULL off the BC coast, it’s an outlier in that regard. pretty much every other model does. it has a fundamentally different evolution 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal.  I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event.  The EPS was a bit more classic looking.

so only a week away? what can go right?

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GEFs look better than the op for the day 6.5 deal.  I wouldn’t call it a classic look on the gfs suite of guidance. At least at H5. It’s an elongated s/w and not a concise powerhouse of a s/w that are classics feature. But, could still be a large event.  The EPS was a bit more classic looking.

Yeah... again - I am reluctant to buy into any one GFS run more so than usual for the time range in question ( which at D6.5 isn't a whole helluva lot of buy in, anyway! )

But the reasons why, the GFS has a progressivity bias that grows out in time. It's noted by NCEP as something future versions will ( hopefully) address.  Well, the pattern we are heading into is inherently slowing down with less of that flow bias - that sort of isolates the GFS as having certain challenges handling this particular pattern migration. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah... again - I am reluctant to buy into any one GFS run more so than usual for the time range in question ( which at D6.5 isn't a whole helluva lot of buy in, anyway! )

But the reasons why, the GFS has a progressivity bias that grows out in time. It's noted by NCEP as something future versions will ( hopefully) address.  Well, the pattern we are heading into is inherently slowing down with less of that flow bias - that sort of isolates the GFS as having certain challenges handling this particular pattern migration. 

 

Yeah I would lean EPS. I was just noting what the gfs was doing. Still feels light years away lol. Who knows what will happen.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead?

And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one 

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s a discussion though. What should we post about instead?

Clicks on thread titled something about a signal emerging March 10-15.

Then seems surprised or confused that there’s discussion in that thread about that time frame.

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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one 

Delegate responsibilities to trusted employees!!

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See ... another aspect that is quite abstract that I'm toying around with in mind ...

this signaled period appears to be dumping ( suggesting it will ...) a ton of mechanical wave space right into the seam of the seasonal slow down and wave shrinkage.  It sort of is like ally-oop timing with that...

The other side of this thing ( that 4 or so day...) we don't really go back to the longer wave lengths/higher gradient construct nearly as much. We probably enter seeing the seasonal evacuation.

Relax! it won't be an instant thing. There could certainly be other thing trackable - but we should see a definitive difference in the wave space behavior. 

Big March events in the past did that same thing. They were stranded big signaled deals that were sort of 'left to their own devices'

 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Clicks on thread titled something about a signal emerging March 10-15.

Then seems surprised or confused that there’s discussion in that thread about that time frame.

I see people cranking :weenie: to a modeled 7 day blizzard and i get lost.  

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11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

And the steady EPS starts it Saturday morning so we are on day 5.5 from tonights runs.. Plenty of time for shifts, but also very reasonable to track storms 5-6 days out.. Tip and Brooklyn have been all over this one 

We are likely already snowing by 10AM Saturday. It’s a matter now of how much and how long . Is it 24 hours or 48 hours?

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