87storms Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Name? Asking for a friend We need the upcoming pattern to be more like Gelato, and less like a bunch of sticks and pebbles. Additionally, I agree with the general consensus that tracking individual low pressure systems at 7+ days is amateur hour stuff. We're better than that lol. I think it's best to just follow the teleconnections and hope that a wave break can happen at the right time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 EPS looking very similar to my amateur eyes to the OP. Slower, stronger wave out west resulting in the mean SLP in the Midwest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 @Ji You need a team, an entire team just studying you 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 this really is the best long range thread yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Look at this monster pattern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Look at this monster pattern. When is the MECS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If I can summarize this…The concerns wrt the initial wave if it comes out in one monster amplification like todays Ops are founded. There is a lot of ridging in front left over from the current pattern. Even with a block an over amped wave will push the boundary to our NW. This is why we usually do better with the follow up waves in a blocking regime! The one fly in that ointment would be a crazy bomb from wave one could suck the air out of the pattern and squash everything behind it. I don’t mind a 990 cutter to start the pattern…we don’t want some sub 980 monster firming a TPV over Ohio! Luckily if I had to root for the guidance to be over or under amplified at long leads I’ll take needing to root against the crazy once a decade anomaly every time! That would be my biggest fear a repeat of the Christmas pattern. We get some type of historic cold while it snows in the lakes for days. Any follow up wave would be crushed south giving Atl a shot of late season snow in the tulips 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8-9 days out guys…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Look at this monster pattern. Monster for who tho? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 as expected a lot of spread 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: About every possible outcome in the book - which isn't surprising, I suppose. WE GOT THIS ALL COVERED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 hours ago, vastateofmind said: Only at Night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: as expected a lot of spread Mean lp over Albany tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Top 5-10 event as center point extremes, but everything's getting warmer so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: as expected a lot of spread Fits the persistance of low pressure tracks for the past several years. Inland to our NW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Mean lp over Albany tho The cutters are deeper. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 But I still think our best bet is centered on the 15th 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 31 minutes ago, LP08 said: EPS looking very similar to my amateur eyes to the OP. Slower, stronger wave out west resulting in the mean SLP in the Midwest. I didn't particularly love 0z Eps either. It's better than what we're currently working with, but I think the same general rule follows (that I've learned on here) which is you want that H5 track to be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On to Happyless Hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The theme all winter is for model's to pretty much lock into a general final solution from about 5 days or 120hrs out. Small wobbles here and there but general track etc pretty much set by that point. Given the blocking that's setting up and how this slow's the flow down a bit, I wouldn't be suprised if the general track is nailed down earlier than that for the 11-12th threat. So I'd imagine we've got another day or two of some crazy swings before the ops really start locking it in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 we're still 8-10 days out lmao, there will be a lot of spread and ops will be going all over the place, anything is possible, cutter, inland runner, coastal storm, suppression no reason to freak out over a single run of anything at this range, its good the storm is there with a good signal and the pattern is conducive for a medium-high end event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The cutters are deeper. Yep, first cutter sets the stage. Beware the Ides of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 55 minutes ago, jayyy said: This is why I said last night that I’m pissed cmc showed a massive dead hit blizzard. Any OP run that shows otherwise will have people freaking out. Wait. For. The. Ensembles. Fuckers. We shouldn't be waiting for anything at this point... In every thread, including the other MARCH long range thread, we've been pointed out to (and rightfully so) how the long range ensembles have been trash all season (Ops, with their cutters and bad solutions, have won in EVERY case the Ens have showed a favorable pattern) and not to hang on to them. At no point so far have they proven themselves to be any more reliable than the ops. Now, by some of those same people, we're told to trust them this time and get mad when people don't. Is that fair? At this point, I trust the squirrels in my backyard more than any Ens or Op. Also, "ur analysis" *snicker* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: @Ji You need a team, an entire team just studying you Ji is a real person? I thought he was a chatgpt bot who just happened to liked snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 could anykne explain to me as to how this is a midwest snowstorm look? genuine questikn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said: could anykne explain to me as to how this is a midwest snowstorm look? genuine questikn One thing I noticed was the 50/50…is that an ideal position I wonder. Would it be better to have it more SW or would that suppress things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: could anykne explain to me as to how this is a midwest snowstorm look? genuine questikn As much as people are denying, the SER base state is a real thing. I keep hearing that isn't a ridge in the SE at 120 hrs it's just a response to the digging sw out west......which is a ridge....in the Southeast. It isnt going anywhere, yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: Ji is a real person? I thought he was a chatgpt bot who just happened to liked snow He is all too real…like Festivus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As much as people are denying, the SER base state is a real thing. I keep hearing that isn't a ridge in the SE at 120 hrs it's just a response to the digging sw out west......which is a ridge....in the Southeast. It isnt going anywhere, yet. To further illustrate out later in the op run, please tell me how this isnt a SER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now