El Nino 2023-2024

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Courtesy Eskimo Joe

I think Paul’s charts are similar to Allan’s MJO 7 El Niño December 500 mb composites. But that may be a little fast for phase 7 with convection still lingering further west into mid-December. We may eventually get to that look as the month progresses. We’ll see.
 

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think Paul’s charts are similar to Allan’s MJO 7 El Niño December 500 mb composites. But that may be a little fast for phase 7 with convection still lingering further west into mid-December. We may eventually get to that look as the month progresses. We’ll see.
 

https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

 

 

I could def. be a bit rushed initially....I actually think I explicitly mentioned that possibility in my write up, which would lead to angst after the last few seasons. I do not expect a case of it being denied, or incessant can kicking, though.

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested in December outcomes in the East based on the MJO's being predominantly in Phases 4 or 5 in early December (December 1-10):

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those who are interested in December outcomes in the East based on the MJO's being predominantly in Phases 4 or 5 in early December (December 1-10):

Looking at the ensemble means, the first half of dec looks slightly AN but not by much. Couple degrees F above here and there. Some 3-5 day periods 5-10 F above, other periods near or slightly BN. 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Looking at the ensemble means, the first half of dec looks slightly AN but not by much. Couple degrees F above here and there. Some 3-5 day periods 5-10 F above, other periods near or slightly BN. 

I agree. It's definitely not going to be a "blowtorch" this time around. The East will probably be somewhat warmer than normal in most places. Nothing like 2015 is remotely on the table as far as I can see. Even 1994-type warmth seems unlikely. Colder prospects late in the month are possible (showing up on some of the extended guidance).

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. It's definitely not going to be a "blowtorch" this time around. The East will probably be somewhat warmer than normal in most places. Nothing like 2015 is remotely on the table as far as I can see. Even 1994-type warmth seems unlikely. Colder prospects late in the month are possible (showing up on some of the extended guidance).

Hence your small sample size warning already looking to be true, lol And even from a layman perspective...in 2015 we were having highs in the upper 70s to near 80 late in November...so that warmth was already rearing it's head at this point. Definitely different this time!

[BlizzardWx]

Certainly interesting on the ECMWF weekly run this morning. The control run would probably result in more snow or ice for me. 

[weathafella]

Getting back to sample size.  Bluewave, sample size of 7 is simply not scientifically valid.  This is one of the reasons seasonal forecasts often are unreliable.   Let's take the case of medical research.   Accepted treatment modalities are formed from huge studies involving many locations often with sample sizes in the tens of thousands or higher.   So one can speculate based on an n of 7 but if it busts it doesn't mean that bust is an outlier.  We have a limited number of years where we have drilled down this far in data.  

[michsnowfreak]

58 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Getting back to sample size.  Bluewave, sample size of 7 is simply not scientifically valid.  This is one of the reasons seasonal forecasts often are unreliable.   Let's take the case of medical research.   Accepted treatment modalities are formed from huge studies involving many locations often with sample sizes in the tens of thousands or higher.   So one can speculate based on an n of 7 but if it busts it doesn't mean that bust is an outlier.  We have a limited number of years where we have drilled down this far in data.  

Not only that, but even with that small sample size, there was no correlation whatsoever when i ran the Detroit numbers. I'm sure running other cities numbers would yield similar results.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Getting back to sample size.  Bluewave, sample size of 7 is simply not scientifically valid.  This is one of the reasons seasonal forecasts often are unreliable.   Let's take the case of medical research.   Accepted treatment modalities are formed from huge studies involving many locations often with sample sizes in the tens of thousands or higher.   So one can speculate based on an n of 7 but if it busts it doesn't mean that bust is an outlier.  We have a limited number of years where we have drilled down this far in data.  

It’s really contingent on the strength of the weather or climate signal that we are dealing with. When a signal is very strong a smaller sample size may be sufficient. But when the signals are weak there may never be a large enough sample size. There has been an extremely strong Western Pacific and Western Atlantic warm signal since the super El Niño in 15-16. This is why seasonal forecasts which have used some of these elements such as strong SE Ridge or WAR have been so successful. It was rare to be able to do this before the last decade when seasonal forecasts were more of a crapshoot due to weaker climate signals. So we were usually deprived of a large enough sample size unless the signal was so overwhelming like a super El Niño or very strong La Niña. Or a very strong temperature signal in one season which continued to the next. 

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s really contingent on the strength of the weather or climate signal that we are dealing with. When a signal is very strong a smaller sample size may be sufficient. But when the signals are weak there may never be a large enough sample size. There has been an extremely strong Western Pacific and Western Atlantic warm signal since the super El Niño in 15-16. This is why seasonal forecasts which have used some of these elements such as strong SE Ridge or WAR have been so successful. It was rare to be able to do this before the last decade when seasonal forecasts were more of a crapshoot due to weaker climate signals. So we were usually deprived of a large enough sample size unless the signal was so overwhelming like a super El Niño or very strong La Niña. Or a very strong temperature signal in one season which continued to the next. 

I believe the scientific method disagrees with your reasoning.   Perhaps 100 years from now we’ll have better data but I’m not counting on being here to find out.

[michsnowfreak]

I'm still not getting the whole sample size theory. As small as it, even still none of the maps look anything like the others. 

 

When you have a sample size of TWO winters, and one of the two includes the record warmth of Dec 2015, of course the "composite" map is going to look warm. 

 

How about a sample size of Feb 2014 & Feb 2015 to come into play this Feb?

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I believe the scientific method disagrees with your reasoning.   Perhaps 100 years from now we’ll have better data but I’m not counting on being here to find out.

Success in any endeavor is a careful balancing of science,art, persistence,and intuition. The skillful use of data can suffice when traditional notions of sample size seem too small. You don’t have to wait 100 years when seasonal forecasts which employed these methods have done very well recently. 

[snowman19]

@Gawx As suspected, Nino region 3.4 warmed back up over +2C on OISST so temporary day to day flux like we thought

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png

Also, strong +IOD still in place, looks like it’s going to stay positive until sometime later in January when it reaches neutral:
 

[snowman19]

On 11/28/2023 at 3:02 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the first nice winter period for the east will coincide with that final el Nino flex later in December, as the MJO constructively interferes with its development while in phases 8, 1 and 2.

@Jbenedet The final El Niño strengthening/warming period looks to be roughly 12/10 - 12/31 (late December) when the MJO enters the Pacific, constructively interferes and causes what should be a very substantial WWB and DWKW. It will have an extremely warm subsurface and OHC to work with. Think this is when the trimonthly super ONI is achieved

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NEPASnow]

Is there any truth to this, I've never heard of this before.

is this related to sun spots?

 

[snowman19]

Is there any truth to this, I've never heard of this before.
is this related to sun spots?
 

No, wrong. Quite the opposite, high geomag corresponds to +NAO/+AO actually. Tony Pann is a weenie met just like Bastardi, Margavage, Margusity, Steve D and more recently Cosgrove

[stadiumwave]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

13 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

Is there any truth to this, I've never heard of this before.
is this related to sun spots?
 

No, wrong. Quite the opposite, high geomag corresponds to +NAO/+AO actually. Tony Pann is a weenie met just like Bastardi, Margavage, Mugusity Steve D and more recently Cosgrove

Basically the list is any dissenting thought from the cult, lol. 

 

But you are correct on the geomag. Anthony Masiello has a good handle on that. Where did that dude go?

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Basically the list is any dissenting thought from the cult, lol. 
 
But you are correct on the geomag. Anthony Masiello has a good handle on that. Where did that dude go?

Mike Masco is a weenie met too lol HM dropped off the face of the planet. I hope he’s ok. It’s extremely weird that he’s nowhere to be found. He’d normally be all over a major Nino event like this. Shame @Isotherm doesn’t post here anymore either, another great met

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, NEPASnow said:

Is there any truth to this, I've never heard of this before.

is this related to sun spots?

 

No. High geomagnetic activity tends to favor a positive NAO or lack of Atlantic blocking.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11200-014-0508-z.pdf

[Daniel Boone]

41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Mike Masco is a weenie met too lol HM dropped off the face of the planet. I hope he’s ok. It’s extremely weird that he’s nowhere to be found. He’d normally be all over a major Nino event like this. Shame @Isotherm doesn’t post here anymore either, another great met

I see Isotherm lurking but, not posting. Miss his Outlook. 

[Daniel Boone]

48 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

Basically the list is any dissenting thought from the cult, lol. 

 

But you are correct on the geomag. Anthony Masiello has a good handle on that. Where did that dude go?

Not saw anything from Anthony since August. Seems I remember seeing something somewhere of health issues. 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Not saw anything from Anthony since August. Seems I remember seeing something somewhere of health issues. 

he posts sometimes on a PA centric board and has fairly recently.  he hasn't said anything profound though that anyone else hasn't already said.

[so_whats_happening]

There could be a decent amount of cooling that takes place over the next two weeks before the inkling of a WWB event and as of now that is not looking nearly as strong as what we just experienced. Dare I say that last was the final big push? probably too early to know for certain just yet.

Finally seeing models tune in on the idea of a 4-5-6 low frequency pass instead of jetting it to 7-8-1. 3 should still be skipped as there are still cool waters and some subsidence present inhibiting much traction in that region for MJO enhancement.

Wasn't really much of a +AAM spike like what we saw in previous warming episodes.

[so_whats_happening]

Also did we just set the warmest Nino 4 has been ever?

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

There could be a decent amount of cooling that takes place over the next two weeks before the inkling of a WWB event and as of now that is not looking nearly as strong as what we just experienced. Dare I say that last was the final big push? probably too early to know for certain just yet.

Finally seeing models tune in on the idea of a 4-5-6 low frequency pass instead of jetting it to 7-8-1. 3 should still be skipped as there are still cool waters and some subsidence present inhibiting much traction in that region for MJO enhancement.

Wasn't really much of a +AAM spike like what we saw in previous warming episodes.

Yeah, Cfs is still unimpressed. I  mention it because it is updated daily unlike the rest of the guidance. 

[so_whats_happening]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, Cfs is still unimpressed. I  mention it because it is updated daily unlike the rest of the guidance. 

It is seeing the bump in the end of December to early January from the potential WWB. Think some of the models are being a bit too quick with progression of MJO and the aforementioned WWB around the dateline but time will tell.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

It is seeing the bump in the end of December to early January from the potential WWB. Think some of the models are being a bit too quick with progression of MJO and the aforementioned WWB around the dateline but time will tell.

Agree with the bump, but not enough to push the mean over +2 for a month or more. 

[so_whats_happening]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Agree with the bump, but not enough to push the mean over +2 for a month or more. 

Yea that isn't much of a concern for me as it is for others. Im more interested in making sure there is still an El Nino through the winter and we don't fall off a cliff too quickly.

[mitchnick]

44 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

There could be a decent amount of cooling that takes place over the next two weeks before the inkling of a WWB event and as of now that is not looking nearly as strong as what we just experienced. Dare I say that last was the final big push? probably too early to know for certain just yet.

Finally seeing models tune in on the idea of a 4-5-6 low frequency pass instead of jetting it to 7-8-1. 3 should still be skipped as there are still cool waters and some subsidence present inhibiting much traction in that region for MJO enhancement.

Wasn't really much of a +AAM spike like what we saw in previous warming episodes.

Fyi, current take by the Eps.