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El Nino 2023-2024


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There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc.

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28 minutes ago, George001 said:

There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc.

I think folks in the east would be happy with the first 3 :lol: Now what must've been a real pain-in-the-butt in the 70s was that back-to-back ninas turned into thr 72-73 super niño which then spurred two more ninas, lol

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8 hours ago, George001 said:

There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc.

I'll take my chances with a La/EL Nothing...people hoping for an El Nino next winter are playing with "fire"...

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4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'll take my chances with a La/EL Nothing...people hoping for an El Nino next winter are playing with "fire"...

How come? Is it because of the risk that the El Niño grows too powerful? That’s a valid concern, but I’d rather take my chances with that than roll with enso neutral. We haven’t had a huge winter in a while, and the best enso state for huge winters in SNE is a weak nino. 

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23 hours ago, George001 said:

There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see anything near a +6 ONI, but waters that warm do often result in fairly powerful El Niños such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1957-1958, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 etc.

It won't be as strong as 1982.

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15 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It won't be as strong as 1982.

I'm hoping for something like 02-03, what are your thoughts on that, Ray?

It's interesting that 1982 was mentioned since today is the 40th anniversary of the February 1983 blizzard when 2 feet of snow fell here, it was the benchmark storm of the 80s and the benchmark snowstorm of my youth.

A great Cat 4 HECS.

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On 2/10/2023 at 2:14 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The event is actually weakening a little right now in the subsurface. Nino 1+2 is really warming fast, and historically that leads Strong El Nino's, but the atmospheric state is very La Nina, with recent -PDO's setting records since the 1950s. 

we might actually need a near strong el nino to offset the la nina atmospheric state

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On 2/10/2023 at 1:00 PM, George001 said:

How come? Is it because of the risk that the El Niño grows too powerful? That’s a valid concern, but I’d rather take my chances with that than roll with enso neutral. We haven’t had a huge winter in a while, and the best enso state for huge winters in SNE is a weak nino. 

neutrals are the worst possible outcome.

neutrals after la ninas include some of the worst winters ever.... 89-90, 01-02 and 11-12 being three examples.

 

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Yeah, but in the subsurface the event is weakening

uwnd_sst_iso20_anom.gif 

Similar to last year, then waned. The difference is Nino1+2 is warming fast. 

Strong trades at the surface right now.. if strong -PNA holds until the end of the month like models currently suggest, the subsurface will probably cool even more. It's looking more like Weak-Moderate right now imo. 

iso20_iso20_anom_5day_comp_drupal.png 

Again, the big challange is we have to do something different from last year. Last year we had this warm push at the same time of year and by late Spring we were cool again. 

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28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Check this out.. before the 15-16 Super Nino, the SSTs were opposite of this year, cold Nino1+2. My point is that Nino 1+2 didn't mean much, in how that year progressed 

1a.gif

1aa.gif

The current state of Nino 1.2 seldom means much with respect to the longer term outlook because it's so unstable.  But if anything, I like that its opposite of 2025 because that was the most powerful cannonical el nino in record. I want a modoki. 

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12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The current state of Nino 1.2 seldom means much with respect to the longer term outlook because it's so unstable.  But if anything, I like that its opposite of 2025 because that was the most powerful cannonical el nino in record. I want a modoki. 

HIgher odds of -QBO next Winter

QBO analogs-El Nino lately has been 14-15, 09-10. Reverse 22-23.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index fwiw. Stratosphere warming is the signal, and around New Years this year we had the lowest 10mb on record. It's been holding true..

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Still a strong D-0 correlation between PNA and subsurface ENSO

This is really different from rapid developing El Nino. Remember in 2021 and 2022 we had the same warmth below Nino 4. 

14098215_TAO_5Day_EQ_xz(2).thumb.gif.904c5e932acec05fecb89f192e506572.gif

The big determinant is where we are on March 9th/10, imo. We have -PNA until then so let's see if the subsurface cools more...

We are back to below average mean 165W->e. Similar actually to last year at this time, although I don't know that we go so deep in March. 

1367468755_uwnd_sst_iso20_anom(1).thumb.gif.c41a0a3ffaf786e7bb0319f891197491.gif

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25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Still a strong D-0 correlation between PNA and subsurface ENSO

This is really different from rapid developing El Nino. Remember in 2021 and 2022 we had the same warmth below Nino 4. 

14098215_TAO_5Day_EQ_xz(2).thumb.gif.904c5e932acec05fecb89f192e506572.gif

The big determinant is where we are on March 9th/10, imo. We have -PNA until then so let's see if the subsurface cools more...

We are back to below average mean 165W->e. Similar actually to last year at this time, although I don't know that we go so deep in March. 

1367468755_uwnd_sst_iso20_anom(1).thumb.gif.c41a0a3ffaf786e7bb0319f891197491.gif

I beg to differ last year at this time La Niña was stronger than what it is right now and they were no models really predicting El Niño at allI

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