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El Nino 2023-2024


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5 hours ago, thunderbolt said:
CFS predicting a 2C El Nino by august with forcing concentrated over central pacific and sinking concentrated over Africa and the Indian ocean. this means the entire pacific ocean will be very active . On the other hand the Atlantic maybe in for near record low ACE if this
 
 
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2C? Damn that’s super nino territory

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Just now, thunderbolt said:

Just like all the models at this time I think we proceed cautiously at least until May But you got To admit it would be nice for something different

Yeah, we haven’t had a potent nino for a while now. Last time we had a nino exceed moderate strength was 2015-2016, 7 years ago. It likely won’t be quite that strong, but coming off a 3 year Nina I think there is a good chance it will exceed at least moderate strength. We won’t know for sure until May or June though.

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19 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep just as wrong as it could be, lol But you'd think this time we don't circle back to another nina but at least a warm neutral (as somebody in our sub said earlier).

A 4th year nina has never happened before in recorded history. 

850mb wind anomalies over tropical pacific are already regressing as per latest enso update, so that’s a good sign. But we won’t really know until June. 

And if we do get a nino, I’d hope for at least moderate strength to overcome the -pdo

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On 2/21/2023 at 9:46 AM, thunderbolt said:
CFS predicting a 2C El Nino by august with forcing concentrated over central pacific and sinking concentrated over Africa and the Indian ocean. this means the entire pacific ocean will be very active . On the other hand the Atlantic maybe in for near record low ACE if this
 
 
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IMBY-ism, the last major hurricane to landfall in Houston/Galveston CWA was during the 1983 Death Niño

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My gut says no El Nino or La Nina next winter. I'd like to be wrong though.

In recent La Nina to El Nino transitions, the SOI has gone pretty negative in February or March. Not gonna happen this February. 

ImageImage

My winter outlook called for a very active March, with very powerful storms entering the West as the catalyst. We seem to be trending that way. Check out this bullshit in ABQ today -

Image

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1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

My gut says no El Nino or La Nina next winter. I'd like to be wrong though.

In recent La Nina to El Nino transitions, the SOI has gone pretty negative in February or March. Not gonna happen this February. 

ImageImage

My winter outlook called for a very active March, with very powerful storms entering the West as the catalyst. We seem to be trending that way. Check out this bullshit in ABQ today -

Image

So you think this is gonna just stall in like a warm neutral? (I mean we do have a pretty long way to go...and we are due for an el niño you'd think)

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Heading into this winter, my research indicated that volcanic winters tend to precede extremely harsh weather in the West during seasonal transitions. That's largely played out quite well this season, with October and the current period seeing extraordinarily powerful systems in the West. There is some tendency in the second volcanic winter for craziness as well, but at different times and locations.

The winter of 1932-33 was extremely harsh in the West following Cerro Azul (VEI 5) in April 1932, and also Volcan Fuego in Guatemala in 1932 (VEI 4). Fuego also erupted in Fall 1974 (VEI 4) ahead of a harsh winter in the West, and again in 2018. I used 1984 as well, in light of the volcanic idea.

March 1993, 2019, and some of the other Marches with extraordinary low pressure readings are in the mix both this year and next year - hold on to your butts.

 

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On 2/22/2023 at 8:09 PM, raindancewx said:

My gut says no El Nino or La Nina next winter. I'd like to be wrong though.

In recent La Nina to El Nino transitions, the SOI has gone pretty negative in February or March. Not gonna happen this February. 

ImageImage

My winter outlook called for a very active March, with very powerful storms entering the West as the catalyst. We seem to be trending that way. Check out this bullshit in ABQ today -

Image

That is what I am hoping for.

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La Nina / La Nina-ish winters that are cold West and then go immediately to an El Nino the next winter are pretty rare. Not convinced we get an El Nino just yet, but it's probably the plurality outcome at this point.

Clear cut examples are 1938-39, and 1971-72 since 1930. Debatable to include 1996-97,  2001-02, and then 1968-69, 2014-15, 1951-52, 1957-58 as anti-logs.

Something like this?

Screenshot-2023-03-08-7-54-47-PM

This is actually a pretty harsh winter for most of the US even though it only looks cold in Oklahoma. December and January are pretty cold in the East, it's just offset by blazing heat in February-March. As these are east-based El Ninos that turn into Modokis late, you get the cold early in the East (as it will be trending colder by Peru like in a strengthening La Nina), and then everybody flips warm by March when the El Nino collapses cold.

Screenshot-2023-03-08-7-54-02-PM

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2 hours ago, raindancewx said:

La Nina / La Nina-ish winters that are cold West and then go immediately to an El Nino the next winter are pretty rare. Not convinced we get an El Nino just yet, but it's probably the plurality outcome at this point.

Clear cut examples are 1938-39, and 1971-72 since 1930. Debatable to include 1996-97,  2001-02, and then 1968-69, 2014-15, 1951-52, 1957-58 as anti-logs.

Something like this?

Screenshot-2023-03-08-7-54-47-PM

This is actually a pretty harsh winter for most of the US even though it only looks cold in Oklahoma. December and January are pretty cold in the East, it's just offset by blazing heat in February-March. As these are east-based El Ninos that turn into Modokis late, you get the cold early in the East (as it will be trending colder by Peru like in a strengthening La Nina), and then everybody flips warm by March when the El Nino collapses cold.

Screenshot-2023-03-08-7-54-02-PM

14/15? The year 2013/14 was neutral

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Really warm waters in the western subsurface.. +4c, to become +5c in a few days. I think this is record breaking for 160E minus 140W, as the central subsurface is still in the negative. ENSO events, and stronger El Nino's in the early stages have in the past had warm subsurface waters along the entire thermocline, from west to east as the event developed, so this happening is even standing out from saying, an oncoming El Nino. 

Again, we have seen these warm western subsurface waters push east the last two years March-May, and then we fell back to La Nina both times so let's see if the same pattern happens again. I know we have had "beginning points" in ENSO for longer term trends, for example, Nino1+2 vs Nino 4 differences (warm vs cold) starting in the year 2000. 

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As much as I hate La Ninas, if we're going to have these big Modoki events most of the time, I'm pretty OK with them. The trend locally is for more snow in Fall/Spring than a normal La Nina in the Modoki events, particularly in Oct-Nov, and late Feb to late Mar. I'll never understand why people were expecting the event that just ended to be a basin-wide or east-based La Nina.

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-06-11-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-06-00-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-05-33-PM

Been impressive seeing the cool down in the Indian Ocean this winter. A lot of winters in the 60s had that feature, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

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3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

As much as I hate La Ninas, if we're going to have these big Modoki events most of the time, I'm pretty OK with them. The trend locally is for more snow in Fall/Spring than a normal La Nina in the Modoki events, particularly in Oct-Nov, and late Feb to late Mar. I'll never understand why people were expecting the event that just ended to be a basin-wide or east-based La Nina.

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-06-11-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-06-00-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-05-33-PM

Been impressive seeing the cool down in the Indian Ocean this winter. A lot of winters in the 60s had that feature, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

image.png.2f10e1ecd233b393cfa166d8f9625357.png

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March has largely done what I've been expecting since October nationally.

Record heat, record cold, record rain/snow/flooding in various parts of the US at times this month. There will be more storms for California and one more Nor'easter before we quiet down fully. Locally, we may see the wettest March in over a decade too. West is theoretically in excellent shape, with drought destroyed during La Nina, and an El Nino incoming.

Image

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My guess is similar in intensity to 2002 and 2009.

Paul Roundy thinks this may be a strong to very strong El Niño and this doesn’t like a Modoki event either. It looks like an east-based El Niño is taking shape, something we haven’t seen in many years, although, more typical during -PDO regimes
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59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Paul Roundy thinks this may be a strong to very strong El Niño and this doesn’t like a Modoki event either. It looks like an east-based El Niño is taking shape, something we haven’t seen in many years, although, more typical during -PDO regimes

I'm not worried about it right now. Hell, this year's la nina was east based until like December...how did that work out-

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On 3/8/2023 at 10:00 PM, raindancewx said:

La Nina / La Nina-ish winters that are cold West and then go immediately to an El Nino the next winter are pretty rare. Not convinced we get an El Nino just yet, but it's probably the plurality outcome at this point.

Clear cut examples are 1938-39, and 1971-72 since 1930. Debatable to include 1996-97,  2001-02, and then 1968-69, 2014-15, 1951-52, 1957-58 as anti-logs.

Something like this?

Screenshot-2023-03-08-7-54-47-PM

This is actually a pretty harsh winter for most of the US even though it only looks cold in Oklahoma. December and January are pretty cold in the East, it's just offset by blazing heat in February-March. As these are east-based El Ninos that turn into Modokis late, you get the cold early in the East (as it will be trending colder by Peru like in a strengthening La Nina), and then everybody flips warm by March when the El Nino collapses cold.

Screenshot-2023-03-08-7-54-02-PM

I would have thought it would have been reversed, ie colder later, since modoki el nino is a colder configuration for the east.

Intersting.

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On 3/11/2023 at 10:11 PM, raindancewx said:

As much as I hate La Ninas, if we're going to have these big Modoki events most of the time, I'm pretty OK with them. The trend locally is for more snow in Fall/Spring than a normal La Nina in the Modoki events, particularly in Oct-Nov, and late Feb to late Mar. I'll never understand why people were expecting the event that just ended to be a basin-wide or east-based La Nina.

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-06-11-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-06-00-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-11-8-05-33-PM

Been impressive seeing the cool down in the Indian Ocean this winter. A lot of winters in the 60s had that feature, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

I was wrong about that myself. What had you favoring a modiki event?

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6 hours ago, snowman19 said:


Paul Roundy thinks this may be a strong to very strong El Niño and this doesn’t like a Modoki event either. It looks like an east-based El Niño is taking shape, something we haven’t seen in many years, although, more typical during -PDO regimes

And

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This article references a paper stating that although Tonga added record amounts of water vapor to sky globally, it also had the biggest aerosol eruption globally since Pinatubo in 1991. 

https://t.co/kMtmm098aC

This past winter you had 10-15% extra water in the sky. That enhanced rainfall/moisture saturation in any given column of air. But you also had unusual cold pockets from dimmed solar radiance. If you look around the US, most places, even very warm spots in winter, had at least one record cold snap (like Boston at -10). I'd expect the weirdness with the cold pockets to continue cycling through in light of the aerosol effect. But I don't think it will ever tie in timing wise with the extra water effect.

As far as ENSO goes, the events tend to move like a conveyor belt. Whatever is happening at the surface probably won't persist unless it has mirrored support "up-current".

Western Subsurface +3 months = Eastern Subsurface trend.

Eastern Subsurface trend +3 months = Eastern surface trend.

Eastern surface trend +3 months = Western surface trend. 

Conceptually, October-November 2023 should once again see extraordinarily powerful storms moving across the US, as volcanic periods tend to. But the Fall should be pretty different from last year.  There are a handful of volcanic falls with extraordinarily expansive snow-cover in North America, with much tamer winters that follow. Could see something like that. My instinct is next year will still be a wet/cold winter for CA, but the entire Southern US is cold, rather than the Western US. I don't think we're done with atmospheric rivers until the excess moisture is drained from the sky to at least some degree. Arid climates are designed to handle this type of imbalance I think.

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He's already prepping to tell us how much next winter will suck. 

I’m stating fact you vapid little airhead. This event is very clearly developing as east-based, does it stay that way who knows? But right now, it is definitely not a Modoki event taking shape. Don’t believe me? Get go on twitter and argue it out with HM and Paul Roundy, who both say this is developing as an east-based El Niño. Sorry, but that’s reality
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