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El Nino 2023-2024


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The rate of warming right now is what people are going on. Matches:

1954- to weak opp event

1957- to moderate opp event

1964- to weak opp event

1965- to strong opp event

1972- to strong opp event

1973- to strong opp event

1976- to weak opp event

1978- to neutral

1988- to strong opp event

1997- to strong opp event

2003- to neutral

2007- to strong opp event

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 

DJF-JFM-FMA, rapid changes, because this year will be. 

6 strong opp events

1 moderate opp event

3 weak opp events

2 neutral events

0 same state events

same # strong events than not (6/12). 

10/12 opposite enso events. 

0/12 same enso events [La Nina]

and 0/6 4th year La Nina's. 

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10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Here is the great "El Nino" of 2012 v. current SSTs.

Similar features include:

-PDO, very warm by Peru.

- Very warm western Atlantic

- Cold Indian Ocean, warm by Australia.

 

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-36-29-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-36-41-PM

Summer 2012

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-39-54-PM

I don't expect to warm up a ton and cool off a ton immediately after. But hopefully this shows why I'm still skeptical.

By the way, 2012 is a very hot Summer, very active for hurricanes, despite how warm the ENSO zones are.

Isn’t there often cold water around Australia before a stronger El Niño which also correlates to a more negative SOI? 

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The rate of warming right now is what people are going on. Matches:
1954- to weak opp event
1957- to moderate opp event
1964- to weak opp event
1965- to strong opp event
1972- to strong opp event
1973- to strong opp event
1976- to weak opp event
1978- to neutral
1988- to strong opp event
1997- to strong opp event
2003- to neutral
2007- to strong opp event
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 
DJF-JFM-FMA, rapid changes, because this year will be. 
6 strong opp events
1 moderate opp event
3 weak opp events
2 neutral events
0 same state events
same # strong events than not (6/12). 
10/12 opposite enso events. 
0/12 same enso events [La Nina]
and 0/6 4th year La Nina's. 

The March MJO progression and strong east-based warming would seemingly support a strong event, but a very long way to go. Paul Roundy is on the strong train so far, we’ll see
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On 3/25/2023 at 8:41 PM, raindancewx said:

Here is the great "El Nino" of 2012 v. current SSTs.

Similar features include:

-PDO, very warm by Peru.

- Very warm western Atlantic

- Cold Indian Ocean, warm by Australia.

 

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-36-29-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-36-41-PM

Summer 2012

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-39-54-PM

I don't expect to warm up a ton and cool off a ton immediately after. But hopefully this shows why I'm still skeptical.

By the way, 2012 is a very hot Summer, very active for hurricanes, despite how warm the ENSO zones are.

I would take a repeat of that winter season....

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On 3/25/2023 at 8:41 PM, raindancewx said:

Here is the great "El Nino" of 2012 v. current SSTs.

Similar features include:

-PDO, very warm by Peru.

- Very warm western Atlantic

- Cold Indian Ocean, warm by Australia.

 

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-36-29-PM

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-36-41-PM

Summer 2012

Screenshot-2023-03-25-6-39-54-PM

I don't expect to warm up a ton and cool off a ton immediately after. But hopefully this shows why I'm still skeptical.

By the way, 2012 is a very hot Summer, very active for hurricanes, despite how warm the ENSO zones are.

Yes I love these very hot summers, we had the same thing prior to the 2002 el nino

 

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or 2002 which had another very hot summer, one of the three top very hot summers I experienced..... 1983, 2002 and 2010.

Summer, 2010 was out of control hot. The hottest summer I can ever remember. It was just relentless, I think every damn day was in the 90’s. Brutal
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The good thing was the humid was very low especially in that megaheatwave around July 4th.

I can’t even imagine how much worse that summer would have been with high humidity. That July 4th heatwave was crazy, I remember hitting 100F. The heat started in May and went unabated right through September. I honestly can’t remember a 5 month stretch that relentlessly hot
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 Today's weekly SSTA release (based on last week) has the relatively volatile Nino 1+2 region up to +2.0 C.

 This +2.0 is quite notable since it is the highest in Nino 1+2 since 3/15/2017, when it was at +2.3. But oddly enough, that +2.3 was during a neutral period that followed La Niña (weak) just a few months earlier and preceded what turned out to be a moderate La Niña in 2017-8. Nino 3.4 was then at +0.2 (vs 0.0 last week) and peaked four times at only +0.5 during April-July. So, Nino 1+2 at times can be very misleading.

 Here is the link to the 2017 ENSO discussion thread to illustrate how deceptive things turned out to be in retrospect during March of 2017:


 From that thread, the first post (done in March) had this:

"Lots of things to iron out over the coming months, including the infamous spring barrier forecast. But as of now we are under an El Niño watch with a 50-55% chance of an El Niño event for 2017-2018. 

6 models have El Niño developing by July 2017. ENSO regions 1+2 are reading at 2.6 C, meanwhile regions 4, 3.4 remain cool."


 So, as of March of 2017 when Nino 1+2 was last +2.0+, the models were suggesting that there was a good (50-55%) chance for El Niño in 2017-8. To compare, we're now at ~63% chance for El Niño in 2023-4.

 However, the CFS changed drastically as per this post just 1.5 months later in early May:

"The CFS has backed off dramatically on El Nino strength and has more of a weak Nino or even neutral conditions. Meanwhile the JAMSTEC is gung ho."


 And then this post from September summarized very well the drastic change in the ENSO outlook:

"How can it be that we went from a good chance at an El Nino, to now a very good chance at a La Nina? Is it that unpredictable?"

 So, whereas I agree that El Niño is favored for 2023-4 and strong+ is quite possible, this 2017 thread illustrates well why there's still significant uncertainty this early.

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17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


I can’t even imagine how much worse that summer would have been with high humidity. That July 4th heatwave was crazy, I remember hitting 100F. The heat started in May and went unabated right through September. I honestly can’t remember a 5 month stretch that relentlessly hot

Yes three days above 100 even at JFK in July and still upper 90s in September!

We did the 32/10/3 split here, 32 days at 90+, 11 days at 95+ and 3 days at 100+

 

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 Further to my prior post about the uncertainty level this early, here is a link to the March of 2017 ENSO outlook report from the Columbia University site that has model as well as official CPC probabilities:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2017-March-quick-look/

 
 To compare, here is the link to the same issued last week:

 https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 At this time in 2017, the model based probability of El Niño was way up at 68% already in JAS and 60% in NDJ. It had the chance at La Niña in NDJ (which is what actually ended up occurring) at a mere 11%. That compares to the current model based probability of El Niño at a nearly identical 67% as of JAS and an identical 60% in NDJ. The current chance for La Niña in NDJ is at 9%, which is not that much lower than 2017's 11%.

  The dynamic model mean peak for Nino 3.4 at this time in 2017 was during NDJ, when it was way up at +1.4. But NDJ ended up way down at -1.0! In comparison, the current dynamic model mean peak is only +1.0 and that's during SON. In 2017 at this time the models had a similar +1.1 during SON. But SON ended up down at -0.7.

 As I said in my prior post, I do feel El Niño is favored. But then again, I thought similarly at this time in 2017 per this 3/20/2017 post at another forum:

"The weekly SST anomalies rose rather substantially in all 4 regions, including a rise of 0.5 C in 3.4. That is the largest weekly rise there in 3 years and is encouraging to me because it is an indication that El Niño will likely be here for next winter."

 At this time in 2017, JB was already showing El Niño winter temperature analogs to be used for 2017-8. He continued to go with El Niño well into the summer. I also maintained "very good" chance at El Niño through June. It took all of the way til July before I started backing down.

 So due to a high level of uncertainty this early as illustrated well by 2017, I wouldn't bet the farm on a strong El Niño or any El Niño for that matter for 2023-4 this early even though El Niño is favored (and I'd strongly prefer El Niño occur due to them overall averaging colder in the SE vs other ENSO).

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2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Further to my prior post about the uncertainty level this early, here is a link to the March of 2017 ENSO outlook report from the Columbia University site that has model as well as official CPC probabilities:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2017-March-quick-look/

 
 To compare, here is the link to the same issued last week:

 https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 At this time in 2017, the model based probability of El Niño was way up at 68% already in JAS and 60% in NDJ. It had the chance at La Niña in NDJ (which is what actually ended up occurring) at a mere 11%. That compares to the current model based probability of El Niño at a nearly identical 67% as of JAS and an identical 60% in NDJ. The current chance for La Niña in NDJ is at 9%, which is not that much lower than 2017's 11%.

  The dynamic model mean peak for Nino 3.4 at this time in 2017 was during NDJ, when it was way up at +1.4. But NDJ ended up way down at -1.0! In comparison, the current dynamic model mean peak is only +1.0 and that's during SON. In 2017 at this time the models had a similar +1.1 during SON. But SON ended up down at -0.7.

 As I said in my prior post, I do feel El Niño is favored. But then again, I thought similarly at this time in 2017 per this 3/20/2017 post at another forum:

"The weekly SST anomalies rose rather substantially in all 4 regions, including a rise of 0.5 C in 3.4. That is the largest weekly rise there in 3 years and is encouraging to me because it is an indication that El Niño will likely be here for next winter."

 At this time in 2017, JB was already showing El Niño winter temperature analogs to be used for 2017-8. He continued to go with El Niño well into the summer. I also maintained "very good" chance at El Niño through June. It took all of the way til July before I started backing down.

 So due to a high level of uncertainty this early as illustrated well by 2017, I wouldn't bet the farm on a strong El Niño or any El Niño for that matter for 2023-4 this early even though El Niño is favored (and I'd strongly prefer El Niño occur due to them overall averaging colder in the SE vs other ENSO).

I mean...we've never had quadruple-dip la nina have we? And 2017 we were coming out of a neutral-ish enso and had just had a super niño a year prior.

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That's a good point about 2017. This current regime started more in 2016, like I said there seem to be consistent happenings in consecutives of years. The last two years, between March and May we had pretty significant ENSO warmings, and both times we ended up in positive territory. This is the 3rd year in a row. After May both of the last 2 years waned off into La Nina. So with +2.3c Nino 1+2 in 2017, and real warmth in Spring 2021 and 2022, all 3 years going La Nina later, I'm a little trepidatious especially with the N. Pacific consistently showing -PNA through, right now, Day 15+ models. (although it's hard with the thermocline looking like that, right now, to not go into El Nino. (the western subsurface is also +,somewhat unconnected,fuel for eventual +ENSO -which may be happening right now, an evening out of global SSTs))

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March 2001, 2012, 2017 v. 2023 month to date. It's not perfect, but I've not found any single developing El Nino or blend of El Ninos closer than those three. You can get cute with 1997/2012 or 1972/2012 as a blend or something but the oceans are so different everywhere. The gigantic cold pool in the southern hemisphere is likely from the very low sea ice down there melting off as a very cold body of water, with maybe some influence from Tonga too.

The Indian Ocean (cold), Atlantic (warm by US), N Pacific (-PDO) are conceptually right though, the ENSO also conceptually right. Naturally, the US temp profile is completely horrible as a match - so I'm not suggesting these are good analogs. But the oceans are similar. It's mostly that the MJO is horribly off timing wise I think.

Image

Image

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3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...we've never had quadruple-dip la nina have we? And 2017 we were coming out of a neutral-ish enso and had just had a super niño a year prior.

 Yeah, there hasn't been a quadruple dip LN since at least 1850 per Eric Webb's ENSO tables. So, the odds are very low for a quad dip though of course not zero. But keep in mind that neutral is quite possible as 30% of falls/winters since 1950 have been neutral, which is almost as high as the % for El Niño. Who's to say that the three in a row La Niña isn't broken with a neutral rather than El Niño? 
 
 I'm not saying that I'm necessarily looking for another 2017. Rather, my point is that 2017 illustrates well the uncertainty this early despite El Niño being favored. Consider that the % chance for El Niño per the CPC is at 63%. While that's rather high for this early, it isn't even quite to a 2 in 3 chance. If they were near certain, they could have given a 90% or so chance. 

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4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Yeah, there hasn't been a quadruple dip LN since at least 1850 per Eric Webb's ENSO tables. So, the odds are very low for a quad dip though of course not zero. But keep in mind that neutral is quite possible as 30% of falls/winters since 1950 have been neutral, which is almost as high as the % for El Niño. Who's to say that the three in a row La Niña isn't broken with a neutral rather than El Niño? 
 
 I'm not saying that I'm necessarily looking for another 2017. Rather, my point is that 2017 illustrates well the uncertainty this early despite El Niño being favored. Consider that the % chance for El Niño per the CPC is at 63%. While that's rather high for this early, it isn't even quite to a 2 in 3 chance. If they were near certain, they could have given a 90% or so chance. 

Yea, while I heavily favor el nino, I could see ENSO neutral....but confident that we are done with la nina.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if we were in a stronger blocking regime back then, we didn't have that kind of blocking in the late 80s or late 90s/beginning of 2000s.

Snowfall notwithstanding, we had some good blocking this past year. We are moving more towards -NAO multidecadal signal IMO.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Snowfall notwithstanding, we had some good blocking this past year. We are moving more towards -NAO multidecadal signal IMO.

that may portend to some good fortune, I wouldn't mind something simular to 2012-13 for neutral or 2002-03 for el nino or a mix of those two for that matter.  I liked the preceding summers too.  I know you don't do summer forecasts, but would you say a hot/dry summer is more likely, along the lines of either 2012 or 2002, Ray?

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55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

neutrals after la nina are some of our worst winters....1989-90, 2001-02, etc.

 

1. Based on my location and preferences, I'd rather have El Niño than neutral and there is good support for that possibility. But after being humbled in 2017 by an epic forecasting failure, when it took me (and others like JB) til July to give up on El Niño for that fall/winter, I learned more than ever before that significant uncertainty almost always exists this early in the year and will try not to bet too heavily on any one scenario until getting later in the year.

2. Location, location: 

- Dec 1989 was epic in terms of severe cold in the E US and especially epic in terms of a very rare coastal SE US snowstorm.

- January of 2002 gave Atlanta its heaviest snow since the great blizzard of March of 1993.

- Per Eric Webb's tables, the winter of 1894-5 also was a neutral winter that followed La Niña. Feb of 1895 was absolutely epic in terms of severe cold and snow in the SE US. This includes not only a place like Atlanta, which had its snowiest month and coldest Feb on record (still is), but also down all of the way to the Gulf and SE coasts.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

3. So as one who prefers a cold winter, I'll be glad just to lose La Niña with the hope we get El Niño.

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13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. Based on my location and preferences, I'd rather have El Niño than neutral and there is good support for that possibility. But after being humbled in 2017 by an epic forecasting failure, when it took me (and others like JB) til July to give up on El Niño for that fall/winter, I learned more than ever before that significant uncertainty almost always exists this early in the year and will try not to bet too heavily on any one scenario until getting later in the year.

2. Location, location: 

- Dec 1989 was epic in terms of severe cold in the E US and especially epic in terms of a very rare coastal SE US snowstorm.

- January of 2002 gave Atlanta its heaviest snow since the great blizzard of March of 1993.

- Per Eric Webb's tables, the winter of 1894-5 also was a neutral winter that followed La Niña. Feb of 1895 was absolutely epic in terms of severe cold and snow in the SE US. This includes not only a place like Atlanta, which had its snowiest month and coldest Feb on record (still is), but also down all of the way to the Gulf and SE coasts.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

3. So as one who prefers a cold winter, I'll be glad just to lose La Niña with the hope we get El Niño.

how did you guys do in 2012-13?

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47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that may portend to some good fortune, I wouldn't mind something simular to 2012-13 for neutral or 2002-03 for el nino or a mix of those two for that matter.  I liked the preceding summers too.  I know you don't do summer forecasts, but would you say a hot/dry summer is more likely, along the lines of either 2012 or 2002, Ray?

I honestly have no idea....I know I had been hearing a lot about a potentially cooler summer but seems to have shifted a bit of late. I am the wrong person to ask, though...I think @raindancewx does summer outlooks.

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20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

how did you guys do in 2012-13?

For the SE overall: In terms of cold, only late winter was cold. In terms of wintry precip, it was feeble at best (vs our normals of course). Charleston did get a trace of wintry precip in Feb. Don't laugh as getting ANYTHING on the SE coast is a victory for winter lovers per the climo of most winter months on the deep SE coast having zilch.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly have no idea....I know I had been hearing a lot about a potentially cooler summer but seems to have shifted a bit of late. I am the wrong person to ask, though...I think @raindancewx does summer outlooks.

I would say that since we've had above normal precipitation, a hotter Summer is more likely this year. 

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Warm ENSO means a better (if still low) chance of seeing snow IMBY (SE Texas).  Cooler and wetter in the cold season.  With a bonus that damaging cold is more likely in a cool ENSO.  (Houston has had cold below 20F two of the last three Winters, that kind of cold is more like a once every decade or two event, the 2021 cold event had freezing drizzle which sort of looked like snow, but the last Winter with snow was 2017-2018).  A quieter hurricane season, I'll be bored looking at the forums (although the last major hurricane to landfall in the HGX CWA was in a strong Nino 40 years ago), but I decided I do not like prolonged periods w/o electricity.  Warm ENSO should help the drought.

Drought.PNG

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