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January 25, 2023 Front End Frozen Chance


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Just to our south would be my guess. Maybe someone else can chime in on this.

I believe the further south it is, the better for most. As the warmer air aloft moves over the colder surface air, that's when we get our front end thump. Closer the actual front gets, the warmer the surface gets. 

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Need the initial WAA nose of precip to just trend a little south so all of us can get in on an hour or 2 of initial snow before inevitable rain. Sometimes models can be off with placement of this so maybe there is hope but as of now most of the modeling takes this nose north of the PA line

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10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Need the initial WAA nose of precip to just trend a little south so all of us can get in on an hour or 2 of initial snow before inevitable rain. Sometimes models can be off with placement of this so maybe there is hope but as of now most of the modeling takes this nose north of the PA line

Good post. I feel like WAA never happen as modeled. Either it flips sooner than we all hope, or it lasts longer than forecast and we score an extra few inches. 

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10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

is this a CAD event?

I don't think so. Low to our west, with precip out ahead of it. colder air here that precip will move over, and enhanced by the warm front that will be coming from our south. 

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Hoping the euro adds some positivity and clarity because I’d say the early 12z models have trended slightly the wrong way. One thing I’m hoping is that this system can lay down some snow along the Ohio River which in turn might help slow this cutter train a bit.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hoping the euro adds some positivity and clarity because I’d say the early 12z models have trended slightly the wrong way. One thing I’m hoping is that this system can lay down some snow along the Ohio River which in turn might help slow this cutter train a bit.

Agreed, the 0z euro and gfs would lay 4-6" over us just to see the slow rug pull at 60 GD hours. Fitting right? :) 

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5 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Don’t worry, the 12z euro will probably reel you back in for a moment, just to pull the plug at 00z emoji23.png


.

his area is still doing pretty good on models, he's just north of the MD line

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1 hour ago, Baltimorewx said:

Need the initial WAA nose of precip to just trend a little south so all of us can get in on an hour or 2 of initial snow before inevitable rain. Sometimes models can be off with placement of this so maybe there is hope but as of now most of the modeling takes this nose north of the PA line

Yep... they are usually to far south with it

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1 minute ago, Kleimax said:

Tony Pann is posting the 48hr HRRR. It’s happening

I saw that on his FB lol, I commented. He's talking about the speed/timing but the placement of that nose of WAA precipitation is what is key. The timing and placement kind of go hand in hand.

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1 hour ago, mappy said:

Good post. I feel like WAA never happen as modeled. Either it flips sooner than we all hope, or it lasts longer than forecast and we score an extra few inches. 

There are 2 factors to watch. Guidance is bad at accurately predicting both.  The first is where the best area of WAA precip sets to north of the warm front. Often this is where the best mid level SW flow meets adequate cold air resistance. This will be that streak of precip that breaks out from WSE to ENE north of the boundary ahead of the storm. We know the drill…if that’s aimed north of us it’s game over. But guidance isn’t good at placing that until inside 24 hours. 
The second is the intensity of the banding inside that feature. If you get heavy enough precip it can hold off the WAA a bit longer by mixing the column d also because the inflow created by the banding can create a bit of a northerly flow and temporarily resist the larger southerly flow.  This combo can cause a good bust where 1-2” becomes 3-5” quick. Hard to ever really predict that though.  Kinda just happens usually. But first we need factor 1 to go our way to have a shot at 2. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hoping the euro adds some positivity and clarity because I’d say the early 12z models have trended slightly the wrong way. One thing I’m hoping is that this system can lay down some snow along the Ohio River which in turn might help slow this cutter train a bit.

Cincinnati picked up 5-6 inches yesterday. At least systems appear to be gradually traversing further SE. Hopefully an overall trend for the next couple weeks. Not banking on it though in this lackluster "Winter".

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Right on cue the Euro shifts the WAA precip 100 miles north and cuts precip here by 60%.
 

Easy to predict

snow wise though, you only lost a half inch. at least per pivotal's 10:1 snow map. 

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