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January Mid/Long Range Disco 2


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

GFS will have this thing in Bermuda next run (or Buffalo) so who knows lol.  All I know is Wisp and Canaan really need the snow so a coastal bomb is good for them (and us :)).  

I like coastal bombs very much

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's Nora actually.  My son is 8 now, and yea he likes to play in the snow but he is way more indifferent about it.  But Nora's little heart is broken by the fact is hasn't snowed yet.  

My 11 year old daughter reminded me the other day to stay patient because "we always sled in March when we get our deepest snows". She isn't wrong in recent years. She even mentioned a April snow from several years ago. She has a meteo memory like you!!

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13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well you DID imply that snow north and west would at least be a little more normal...and there it is :lol:

Except snow NW is supposed to be common in a good but flawed progression with some snow here. This gave us that solution with a damn near perfect synoptic progression. 
 

@WxUSAF was just thinking looking at the snow distribution from the Gfs it looks a lot like the early Dec 1992 storm. But that storm was early Dec not the coldest week of the year and the synoptic progression of that was way way worse with a storm that initially cut way west then formed a secondary basically right over DC. 
 

This simulated the same result as we got from a severely flawed setup early Dec out of a nearly perfect progression in mid January. Yay. 

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33 minutes ago, jayyy said:

All we need is the ICONs temp profile (which is on its own island) with the GFS’s track (basically on its own island too). What could go wrong? emoji23.png - joking.

In all seriousness, not a great set of runs so far today, but again, we’re mainly discussing OPs from 8 days out. They’ll change at 18z, 0z, and then again tomorrow, etc. No use in getting too worked up about it. Yesterday we saw the cash in side of the outcome envelop. Today we’re seeing the opposite. I also don’t love the idea of analyzing a secondary storm which partially depends on what an initial storm does from this range - especially when neither piece of energy is onshore yet. Models are missing far too much data to get an accurate picture of the players on the field for a storm over a week out. They aren’t even in agreement on the 8th-9th small ordeal yet emoji2369.png

Peeping at the 6z GEFS, which I give far more weight to than the GFS or ICON at this range, there’s still a shot. Timing needs to be near perfect though, otherwise there’s virtually no cold air to work with…. which is a tall ask in these parts. A full phase could also do the trick. A few of the individual members get it done with proper timing, but most panels are a swing and a miss. Can’t say I like the way things look at this point, but I also can’t say with any semblance of confidence that this is the way things will look by the time the 8-9th rolls around. We could see a situation like last January where the storm sneaks up on us in the D5 range once models get a better grasp of what we’re dealing with up top.

You mentioned data sampling in the PAC regarding the 2 sw's that would be responsible for the 50/50. Is this still a real thing wrt data sparse areas? I mean, 20 years ago I know that was always legit but aren't there other atmospheric measuring devices in play now? Or is this missing data really still a thing?

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There would definitely be some CAD at least at the beginning. Of course this is assuming this unfolds as projected, but if so, I would definitely expect a colder profile at game time.

And there is CAD at the beginning, although not super strong. I guess I see things differently but with no blocking, a transient 50-50 low hauling ass up into the NA, and a wound up low hugging the coast, not sure how HP is supposed to just sit there.

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2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I mean I have been saying for days how warm the oceans are this is the result!

Just looked up the ocean water temp in Va Beach today. It is 47 and the mean temp for the climate period 1981-2005 was 53 for this date. Not gonna look this up at every site but Atlantic and Gulf water temps are always pretty warm relative to freezing this time of year. They are colder later in the winter which is probably one reason we are snowier late in the season as opposed to earlier.

I don’t think the sky is falling yet.

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty broad and long fetch of Southeasteries tbh. HP to the N/NE moving out as well.

Sloppy phase that’s too late and too far north and east. Hence the 850 low/trough is NW of us.

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32 minutes ago, LP08 said:

image.thumb.png.14024cef5bc5df8b7f0fbb53c0ca6e77.pngI sense a PSU post after this map

I am not getting excited about that it's not even close to snow really for the I-95 crew but a week away the winds are coming right out of the east and in some cases east-southeast may want to gander at the water temps this thing needs to be further east and northeast. 

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

And there is CAD at the beginning, although not super strong. I guess I see things differently but with no blocking, a transient 50-50 low hauling ass up into the NA, and a wound up low hugging the coast, not sure how HP is supposed to just sit there.

I don’t necessarily think it will sit there but I think the initial temps will be colder than currently modeled. This often happens in CAD setups. I know you know that though.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty broad and long fetch of Southeasteries tbh. HP to the N/NE moving out as well.

at least we are somewhat in the game.  move it 50 miles east and it would be better for more of us...I think...at least W-95.

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I don’t necessarily think it will sit there but I think the initial temps will be colder than currently modeled. This often happens in CAD setups. I know you know that though.

I guess I was more responding to Ji and Psu than you lol. I was agreeing with you there should be CAD initially.

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14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My 11 year old daughter reminded me the other day to stay patient because "we always sled in March when we get our deepest snows". She isn't wrong in recent years. She even mentioned a April snow from several years ago. She has a meteo memory like you!!

Raising the next generation of weather weenies right!

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26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Count the lows. thought I was looking at a GEFS member low location panel for a minute.

1673816400-E0xXOP1oBgc.png

Signaling a broadly occluded slp IMHO. Nothing will erode a CAD or antecedent cold airmass faster....so alot of this is making sense and coming together.

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1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

By Tuesday-ish, I'll make a decision whether to chase this in Deep Creek/Canaan (and take my family & our sleds with me)... or stay home.

no matter what happens i can't see going to deep creek being a bad decision.  unless it really turns due east.  either way you get snow unless cutter but you will see that way in advance.  I'll drive!

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

no matter what happens i can't see going to deep creek being a bad decision.  unless it really turns due east.  either way you get snow unless cutter but you will see that way in advance.  I'll drive!

Yeah, if it starts to trend colder at least on the onset and it appears we get a front end thump, I'm staying put. But if it basically shows all rain east of the blue ridge, I'm chasing. Just gotta sell the wife on this...

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