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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2023


buckeyefan1
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16 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Tony/all,

 The prior Euro Weeklies run's March 13-20 had had the strongest cold signal for the E US for any week in March of 2023 yet. And now the brand new one for that week (see image below) has a significantly stronger cold signal than even that one.

 In addition, the subsequent week (March 20-27) on this new run has a much stronger cold signal than the prior run had for that week and about as strong a signal as the prior run's March 13-20.
 
 So, this is an impressively strong cold signal for the E US overall on today's Euro weeklies for 3/13-27! The major SSW and the upcoming new very notable strat weakening are looking to do their thing apparently! This new strat weakening is projected to bring 60N 10 mb winds all the way down to near -17 m/s on Feb 28th! The major SSW, though quite impressive in its own right, brought those winds down "only" down to -13 m/s (on Feb 18th).

 The latest extended GEFS largely agrees. So, the Feb that we've missed out on may actually finally arrive here in March! Tony, sleet could still be in your near future for all anyone knows!

 I'll go even further. No single week in any of Jan, Feb, or March of 2023 on any Weeklies run back to Jan 5th (14 runs excluding today's) has had as strong a cold signal (vs normal of course) for the E US as today's for March 13-20 with today's run for March 20-27 and last week's for March 13-20 about tied for second coldest signal.

3D08151D-9E73-4F3B-B9C3-7E8C760442FC.thumb.png.b770796ba24ce1d7994c824c5f04194c.png

The CPC agrees

Screenshot_20230224-153011.png

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Icon and CMC both with 2 runs in a row of a Snowstorm next weekend in Northern NC/Southern VA. Gfs just rain and Euro was a central VA Snowstorm. Just something to watch.

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

Significant upside with this system but two totally different camps. It does have a significant -NAO and there is cold air north of it. Good sign for a major storm across guidance but obviously a lot needs to go right for something other than cold rain and I don’t discount the GFS inland track at all 

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Working on my Mr Troy (Horse tiller) getting it ready for the upcoming gardening season. I've had it for over 30 years. Curious about what's available as add-ons for use with its PTO. Forgot Troy has a snow/dirt plow blade that you can add on to the front to push snow with. Showed my Mrs. She asked what I wanted to worry about that for, it's not going to snow here anymore. Don't think that she was talking about just this season. :weep:

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 The trend of the EPS mean has been for higher SLPs in SW Canada ~March 8th from Arctic highs dropping down toward Montana/ND.  The mean in the latest run has risen to well up into the 1040s, which is uncommonly high for 10 days out on a 51 member ensemble in March, especially when one realizes that the March record for SW Canada isn't that much higher than that (1053) as this image shows:

MarchRecordHighSLPs.gif


 About 20% of the 0Z EPS members are above that 1053 March record in SW Canada with a couple even way up at 1060+.

 As we get closer to March 8th, it will be interesting to see whether or not this trend of the mean toward a higher SLP continues. If so, that would increase the chance for a major cold plunge getting into the US ~March 9th-10th. Keep in mind that Arctic plunges are often under forecasted that far out in time by ensemble means.

 The trend on the EPS has also been toward a weakening of the SE ridge late in the runs. If this were to keep up, it would open the door for what potentially could be the coldest air for the SE since the late Dec historic plunge near or just after March 10th.

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It’s going to be interesting to see where trough axis sets up if the arctic intrusion occurs and if the storm track changes.  

Already in the last week we’ve seen the storm track a little further south and East and the NE is actually seeing regular rounds of wintry precipitation.  

It looks to edge even more further south next weekend with the mid Atlantic in play.  It’s been such an odd winter pattern, who knows what will happen. 

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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Huge differences between GFS and EURO/CMC camps. No change to our weather but model handling of that system has been terrible 

They're definitely coming into better agreement the past 24 hours or so, closer to the more persistent GFS and what most of the other guidance was showing last week. The stronger solutions are very close to setting low pressure records across the Mid-Miss./Tenn./Ohio Valleys and have super outbreak written all over them. 12Z EPS and low pressure records below:

1749696841_ScreenShot2023-02-26at2_24_04PM.png.45a7394a1ea04a45c7137401cd6a2555.pngAllTimeRecordLowSLPs.thumb.gif.a7ca1c9bafbda796b98b26a2c60dd2d3.gif

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6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

They're definitely coming into better agreement the past 24 hours or so, closer to the more persistent GFS and what most of the other guidance was showing last week. The stronger solutions are very close to setting low pressure records across the Miss./Tenn./Ohio Valleys and have super outbreak written all over them. 12Z EPS and low pressure records below:

1749696841_ScreenShot2023-02-26at2_24_04PM.png.45a7394a1ea04a45c7137401cd6a2555.pngAllTimeRecordLowSLPs.thumb.gif.a7ca1c9bafbda796b98b26a2c60dd2d3.gif

Completely caved to GFS this run. Crazy how poor the Euro has been this season 

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Despite the SSWE and the ensembles, the models pretty much show the pattern of the last 2 months to continue for the next 10 to even 15 days.  At this point, I’d just as soon move on into spring rather than have a massive killing freeze or a “warm” snowstorm that will hang on the leafed out trees.  
TW

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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

They're definitely coming into better agreement the past 24 hours or so, closer to the more persistent GFS and what most of the other guidance was showing last week. The stronger solutions are very close to setting low pressure records across the Mid-Miss./Tenn./Ohio Valleys and have super outbreak written all over them. 12Z EPS and low pressure records below:

 

Outlined at day 6 and while it has plenty of time to change, it sure has my attention. 

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 The 12Z EPS mean backed off a good bit from the prior EPS trend of a higher SLP peak in SW Canada for ~3/8. The 0Z had as mentioned a very impressive and rarely seen on day 10 of the EPS 1046 mb along with 20% of the members with a record high SW Canada SLP for March. The 12Z has only 1041 with increased troughing just off the west coast. This lead to lower SLP and thus not as cold in the Midwest.

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z EPS mean backed off a good bit from the prior EPS trend of a higher SLP peak in SW Canada for ~3/8. The 0Z had as mentioned a very impressive and rarely seen on day 10 of the EPS 1046 mb along with 20% of the members with a record high SW Canada SLP for March. The 12Z has only 1041 with increased troughing just off the west coast. This lead to lower SLP and thus not as cold in the Midwest.

*Corrected typo

In other words: here we go again. Cold ain’t making it to the SE in time, if at all.

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