NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Well, the OP run anyway We all know who will win… SER is undefeated this year. Sucks having a good PAC (what I’ve blamed most of our most recent failures on) but it doesn’t matter when there’s no way to get cold south of Montreal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The 0Z GFS/GEFS are mainly warmer in early Feb than prior runs as the SE ridge dominates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 0z Euro is interesting, of course, it's day 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 This would be ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: This would be ugly. Don't worry, 12z will probably have us in the 70s with supercells. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 6z GFS is completely different world from 0z. SER doesn't show it's ugly face nearly as much 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The Euro requires a perfect timing of the HP, and LP moving in tandem, with the HP needing to be well placed and strong enough. Seems unlikely, but probably in that case would be more of a sleet storm than ice storm. The 6z GFS is a much better path to snow, and closer range so, a bit more plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 NWS RAH is showing some interest in this time period as well. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM Thursday... Temperatures will depend on the exact location of a frontal zone meandering over the SE US, with additional CAD conditions very possible. Finally, rain should be the primary precip type through at least Thursday. Thereafter, the uncertain arrival of Canadian air into the area will likely hold off until Friday/Saturday, which would yield increasing chances for wintry precip as additional moisture overspreads the area from the SW. Stay tuned. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 hours ago, ncskywarn said: This would be ugly. I'm curious what "Total ice" is since in GSO, total ice is 0.72 while zr is 1.02. How can zr be more than the total ice unless total ice is just sleet. Thanks for any educational feedback TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 That Euro solution would be an epic sleet storm for many. Too much of a thread the needle solution at range to take with much more than a grain of salt. If we pull something out of this pattern that’s the only way it’ll happen though. Very, very short window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: That Euro solution would be an epic sleet storm for many. Too much of a thread the needle solution at range to take with much more than a grain of salt. If we pull something out of this pattern that’s the only way it’ll happen though. Very, very short window Yep! Precip type map show zr, but here's the sounding. This kinda of setup is extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just a tiny bit quicker HP on the Euro to establish that CAD better ahead of time would be perfect but obviously no reason to nitpick at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Gfs and CMC both have the storm, GFS. A little to warm. CMC a major ICE Storm taken verbatim from 12zSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Gfs and CMC both have the storm, GFS. A little to warm. CMC a major ICE Storm taken verbatim from 12z Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk As Dawg mentioned we need the HP to come in faster or the system to slow down on the GFS. Still a lot of possibilities on the table. The model inconsistency is comical at this point, especially the GFS. The CMC and Euro have been a little more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The storm cutting on the CMC is a very strange evolution. The energy hangs up in the Texas/Louisiana area for a couple of days before being pulled almost due north by a vort digging from the Pac NW. It seems unlikely to me that energy stays put like that. This looks like a strung out slider orientation to me with multiple waves riding the boundary. That’s just how I interpret that. Euro and CMC frequently tend to hold energy back longer than reality too so i really don’t think the CMC solution will pan out in that manner. But it is relatively consistent, much more so than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The Euro slides the high too far east and the storm is too amped, so sad trombones. Close to a raging sleet storm again, but illustrates how delicate the 0z Euro progression really was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Still like the fact that their is a storm and it has potential. Good to see that the Euro keeps some wintry precip for some of the Piedmont and into VASent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 When will we ever see another Miller A storm?!? High is weaker and a little quicker but the Miller B with a stronger parent low in East Tennessee is a real killer. Clearly a storm signal, but we're gonna need to thread the needle. Timing/strength of multiple features is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 We really need to just kill this winter with fire. It's not gonna happen. The flow is so progressive, cold air never has a chance to be established. The only definite thing is tons of rain is coming. Especially GA and SC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We really need to just kill this winter with fire. It's not gonna happen. The flow is so progressive, cold air never has a chance to be established. The only definite thing is tons of rain is coming. Especially GA and SC. Don’t worry, it’ll all be over in 33 days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 12Z EPS looks pretty much the same as 0Z for central NC. 1" of snow is the mean. 12Z GEFS is just as good, if not better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We really need to just kill this winter with fire. It's not gonna happen. The flow is so progressive, cold air never has a chance to be established. The only definite thing is tons of rain is coming. Especially GA and SC. So true. Threading the needle doesn’t work very often in my neck of the woods. This will probably be a mid Atlantic storm but we got nothing else to watch. Sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, wncsnow said: We really need to just kill this winter with fire. It's not gonna happen. The flow is so progressive, cold air never has a chance to be established. The only definite thing is tons of rain is coming. Especially GA and SC. I understand the sentiment but there's been plenty of crap winters with no real established cold that we've won the timing lottery in. Let's be honest, a very large portion of our winter events over time have probably come from transient cold. I'm certainly not confident in seeing winter precip, but I'm definitely not gonna thrown in the towel til the climatolagy window for my area closes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Starting at 144, one can see how different the 12Z JMA is vs all of the other 12Z runs with the southern lobe of the TPV further south resulting in colder air moving much further south into the S Plains. At 168 you can see how much colder it is in the SE with troughing to the Gulf coast along with an Arctic high bringing much colder air in vs the SE ridge hanging on all of the others. This is deep cold as opposed to shallow cold from CAD. I'm assuming the outlier JMA is going to end up wrong based on it largely being an inferior model, but thought it was worth documenting this in case it were to score an upset win. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 25 minutes ago, GaWx said: Starting at 144, one can see how different the 12Z JMA is vs all of the other 12Z runs with the southern lobe of the TPV further south resulting in colder air moving much further south into the S Plains. At 168 you can see how much colder it is in the SE with troughing to the Gulf coast along with an Arctic high bringing much colder air in vs the SE ridge hanging on all of the others. This is deep cold as opposed to shallow cold from CAD. I'm assuming the outlier JMA is going to end up wrong based on it largely being an inferior model, but thought it was worth documenting this in case it were to score an upset win. If we’re throwing the JMA out on the forum, we’ve already lost… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 46 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: If we’re throwing the JMA out on the forum, we’ve already lost… Absolutely, desperate times, indeed! But at least I'm not throwing the NAVGEM or CFS. And the big difference starts before day 7. At 168, the lowly regarded JMA has the 850 0C line 300-400 miles S of the others. Also, where the others have the 0C line then, the JMA has -10 to -15 C. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 12z EPS looks good for overrunning wintry weather!Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 18z GFS bringing the goods to northern NC and Southern VASent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 18z GFS brings the goods in quicker than the Euro. 6-7 days out taken verbatim Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Yes it does. I like your spot. I’m in South Central NC ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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