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December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill


WxUSAF
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A burst of snow is very possible  if not likely with this set up. Could be a quick 1-2 if not a bit more. There are actually quite a few examples of strong fronts that had a couple hours of snow on the other side of the front even into the cities. Notably 3/2005, 3/1995, 11/1995, 3/1999, 4 /2000 etc. As recent as last March saw heavy rain change to snow so it happens more frequently than realized. 

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A period of anafrontal snow is definitely on the table.   It's also worth watching to see how warm we get ahead of the front and the timing.   GFS right now actually shows some instability for areas east of the Potomac, and with intense winds above the surface and strong shear, a low-topped convective line with damaging wind and perhaps a few brief spinnies would be possible.

image.thumb.png.a10edf80dc0aa008450358e53fbf8d7e.png

 

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2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I still wouldn't get too excited about this. I mean, we can't even trust the models beyond 3 days right now, and anafront snows are very rare here. 

I seriously don't think anyone is overly "excited" about this, to be honest.  It's just interesting from a meteorological standpoint no matter if we get nothing, a couple of flakes, or a bit more.  I've seen threads started for FAR less than this.

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I seriously don't think anyone is overly "excited" about this, to be honest.  It's just interesting from a meteorological standpoint no matter if we get nothing, a couple of flakes, or a bit more.  I've seen threads started for FAR less than this.

It'll be interesting to watch for sure. I'll be right by the window for this.

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5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I still wouldn't get too excited about this. I mean, we can't even trust the models beyond 3 days right now, and anafront snows are very rare here. 

you seem new here. we start threads for rain. its okay. let people act however excited they want to be. 

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2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Oooo. The downsloping snow hole in my back yard! West to east thunderstorms do this to. I am not sure if this is just a resolution gap, typical f such a scenario, but I swear this happens out my way in summer storms too! 

 

Screenshot_20221219_111557_Chrome.jpg

Everything about that map screams temporal resolution problems. 

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11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I seriously don't think anyone is overly "excited" about this, to be honest.  It's just interesting from a meteorological standpoint no matter if we get nothing, a couple of flakes, or a bit more.  I've seen threads started for FAR less than this.

This is how I feel (and anyone can feel how they want obviously). Not really gonna have IMBY performance metrics on this one :lol:

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