Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z EPS bumped west as well, actually favor NW of the OP Euro. Nice bump in QPF too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 So in other words, we're steady reeling in highest impacts in Chicago/N. IL/S. WI region?Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Nice bump in QPF too Chicago can you/are you allowed to post the map? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Anybody know the average SLP error for this time range? At this stage it's probably more like the average positional error, I think the pattern emerging will sustain a 960-970 low somewhere within 200 miles of Detroit in any direction. There is probably about a 10% chance of this continuing to push further north on later model runs to the extent that MSP and DLH get the sweet spot, and there's maybe a 10% chance of it returning to a coastal, a 20% chance it's more like an Apps runner, and various other percentages closer in to the consensus track today. With the heights crashing on all guidance and -40 C air mass emerging out of northwest Canada already today, can't see how this fails to deepen explosively once it rounds the base of the trough. I think there could be minor shifts back towards the Ohio valley to Cleveland sort of a track as the cold air pushes in ahead of the final wave and forces it to take a sharper curve around TX-AR. As intense as this looks now, there are ways it can actually become more intense. It really doesn't pull in a lot of Gulf moisture for example but a sharper trough might do that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Old home: New home: This place blows Did you used to live in Battle Creek? I think that's what I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Don't look at today's 12z UK run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 14 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Chicago can you/are you allowed to post the map? thanks Pivot weather has EPS QPF for free, amongst other freebies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Pivot weather has EPS QPF for free. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Could actually see severe blizzard conditions verify over a pretty large area if this thing is as intense as it could be. This one checks off all the boxes as of now. “A severe blizzard has winds over 72 km/h (45 mph), near zero visibility, and temperatures of −12 °C (10 °F) or lower.“ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 The LOT long term AFD is a rather enjoyable read. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Frog Town said: I may be mistaken, but wasn't that 2002? I only remember cause I just bought a new house and was up all night painting. 8.9" on Dec 22/23, 2004 6.5" on Dec 24/25, 2002 5.4" on Dec 24/25, 2017 3.0" on Dec 24/25, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Issued at 221 PM CST Sun Dec 18 2022 Tuesday through Sunday... All eyes in the long term period are on the late week cyclone and intrusion of bitterly cold air along with dangerous wind chills late this week into the weekend. Confidence continues to steadily increase that a potentially crippling blizzard could impact portions of the region later this week, the timing of which couldn`t be worse for holiday travel. If, and how severely, our forecast area (CWA) will be impacted depend on the exact track of the cyclone and to some extent the magnitude and timing of the forecast rapid deepening. Medium range guidance has been advertising a powerful cyclone spinning up over the Great Lakes or northeast U.S. for days now, with a pretty sizable spread in where the storm will develop/track. There was a cluster of guidance favoring a Great Lakes target region, which would increase chances for major impacts in our CWA, with a second cluster favoring the New England resulting in disruptive, but far less extreme winter weather locally. Trend in ensemble guidance over the past 48 hours has been decidedly away from a New England cyclone and toward cyclogenesis farther west over the Great Lakes with recent runs of the GFS/GEFS making the significant shift west. While track guidance has shown (pretty typical) variability, the theme of rapid, and potentially explosive, deepening of the cyclone has been a fairly consistent theme in guidance for days now. The expected intensity of the cyclone combined with the very strong arctic high (>1040mb) over the northern and central Plains leads to high confidence in a noteworthy high wind event with this system. The eventual track of the cyclone and timing of rapid/explosive deepening will determine where the very high impact winter weather/potential blizzard will set up. Given recent model and ensemble trends, our CWA lies very solidly within the potential threat region. The incipient wave that is forecast to spawn this system is still located north of Alaska across the Beaufort Sea, so it still has a lot of distance to cover with plenty of time for shifts in guidance. It isn`t uncommon for models to make leftward adjustments to the track of powerful cyclones like this, so it is important not to get locked in on a forecast track yet. At this distance, it is also advisable not to focus on individual operational runs of models, as operational runs will likely exhibit variability in the strength and especially track over the next couple or days. This run to run variability in operational runs is often not an actual "trend" but rather "noise" in the range of possibilities at this distance. Rather than focusing on noise level changes in operational runs, focusing on trends in ensemble data the next couple of days should prove more meaningful as we look to hone in on location and magnitude of the threat. In addition to producing blizzard conditions, the high winds will likely cause lakeshore flooding (which shore depends on track of cyclone) and dangerous wind chills well below zero. Currently, most guidance strongly supports advisory level wind chills (-20 to -30F) Friday into at least the first half of the Christmas weekend, with some potential for even a period of warning level (colder than -30F) wind chills as actual air temperatures plummet below zero. All indications are that our high temp Christmas Day will be the coldest since the mid 90s and possibly one of the top five coldest on record. Any power outages resulting from the strong winds greatly increase potential danger of the cold spell. We strongly urge everyone to pay close attention to later forecasts, particularly if you have holiday travel planned. - Izzi 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 When is the all important sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: When is the all important sampling? There are several pieces the the puzzle that are being sampled today and tomorrow. However, the main wave is being sampled today/tomorrow over Alaska, and then will be sampled over SW Canada and the Pac NW on tomorrow/Tuesday once again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Still a few days away from that. Should current guidance pan out... Lead snow chances possibly as early as Wednesday night, but main system snow generally Thur/Fri. So look for the late Tuesday or Wednesday time frame. Given holiday maybe more late Tuesday? Assuming current guidance continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2022 Author Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: So look for the late Tuesday or Wednesday time frame. Given holiday maybe more late Tuesday? Assuming current guidance continues Insider info says Tuesday would be the day, if things hold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just saying a win for the euro would also be a win for the ICON... I'm pretty sure they've been rather similar for a long long time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 18z GFS going big again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 18z GFS going big again Bit deeper, and a bit further west. At the IL/IN border at 114 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Bit deeper, and a bit further west. At the IL/IN border at 114 Great. It's gonna end up on freeking Minnesota at this rate... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 18z GFS going big again 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Insane pressure drop on that run. Sheesh. No matter where this thing goes, going to see some dangerous wind-chills on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Crush job. Still snowing in IN/MI. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 How would this Chicago storm compare to 1967, 1979, 1999? More wind and power outages I assume. Can’t wait for Tom Skilling and WGN forecast maps.As currently modeled by the ECMWF and GFS, this storm would be worse than GHD I. The extreme cold in addition to the snow and similar magnitude winds is a game changer. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Crush job. Still snowing in IN/MI. Wow. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Kuchera for the lolz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Kuchera for the lolz Here’s the more realistic 10:1 gif animation: And the awesome but unlikely Kuchera for the eye candy: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: As currently modeled by the ECMWF and GFS, this storm would be worse than GHD I. The extreme cold in addition to the snow and similar magnitude winds is a game changer. I didn’t think it was possible to experience something worse than GHD I. I remember those winds vividly, so violent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Some eye candy for y’all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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