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Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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Kuchera is overdone for this setup with the winds, so in this case the 10:1 maps will likely be more accurate.  
I'd imagine somewhere between 10-15:1 because the DGZ will be deep, offset by the high winds. The Kuchera ratios are definitely way too high because there's no limiting factor with such a cold air mass, and no accounting for the fracturing dendrites by the wind.

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lookin good. Major midwest / greatl lakes snowstorm with high winds and bitter cold  still on the table for Christmas week. It's been a awhile.......

 ONE   
TREND THAT'S EMERGED ON THE 00Z GEFS, WHICH OVERALL CONTINUES THE   
MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS TUNE, IS THE PRESENCE OF A FEW MEMBERS NOW   
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY-DEEPENING SURFACE LOWS CUTTING ACROSS THE LAKE   
AND INTO MICHIGAN BY FRIDAY MORNING, INDICATIVE OF MORE   
SUBSTANTIAL PHASING WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. THE ENTIRE GEFS   
ENVELOPE HAS BEEN EVER-SO-SLOWLY TICKING WESTWARD, SO THIS WILL BE  
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL CYCLES TO SEE IF THIS   
CONTINUES. THE REST OF THE NON-GFS GUIDANCE SUITE/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT   
HAS SHIFTED SUBTLY SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT (ALTHOUGH NOTING NO REAL  
MATERIAL CHANGE FOR A 130+ HOUR FORECAST FROM THE LATEST ECMWF   
WHICH HAS THUS FAR REMAINED AMONG THE MOST CONSISTENT   
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE). THIS ALTOGETHER HASN'T REALLY CHANGED THE  
OUTLOOK PICTURE THAT MUCH, WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS   
HONING IN ON THE MAIN SWATH FOR POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WINTER   
IMPACTS FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, WEST TOWARDS OUR LOCAL AREA.   
EVEN WITHOUT A MORE FULLY-PHASED SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY   
LAKE EFFECT SNOW (AND EVEN SYSTEM-PRECEDING FRONTOGENESIS-INDUCED   
SNOWFALL) AND A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DOSE OF WIND IN THE LOCAL AREA   
SEEMS TO BE IN THE CARDS.

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One thing to consider with this storm is with the upper level low possibly closing off and maybe a decent trowal setting up, there will be good convective instability in the cold sector.

So despite the wind fracturing dendrites some, the snowfall rates should be enhanced and there will likely be some aggregation of snowflakes near the transition zone, which should both aid in relatively efficient accumulation.

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7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'll take the 6z gfs please.

 

7” of snow just south of St Louis followed by lows on Christmas Eve morning in the negative single digits and single digit temps at Midnight Mass with 2-day old snowpack?!?

I won’t tempt the Almighty or Santa or anyone else by asking for anything more than that.

 

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Just now, The Ole Bucket said:

7” of snow just south of St Louis followed by lows on Christmas Eve morning in the negative single digits and single digit temps at Midnight Mass with 2-day old snowpack?!?

I won’t tempt the Almighty or Santa or anyone else by asking for anything more than that.

 

BTW this is just using the 10:1 ratios. I won’t even peek at Kuchera, since that’s fantasyland surely.

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Wave digging a bit further south and a touch deeper. Going to likely be coming west

The digging further south is kind of a mirage.

The main wave is more so coming in digging a bit further west, with better trough tilt. Also a bit more ridging ahead of the wave/trough across the Eastern US, and better separation between the main wave/trough and the lobe in S Canada.


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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

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